Be careful with BTC here..Even tho BTC is up 10% today I would'nt get my hopes all the way up just yet.
Something interesting is happening here.. History shows: every time 20 & 50MA line crossed the 200MA line to the downside in the past, BTC went into a full on bear market.
20 & 50 MA is still just above 200MA, but a cross to the downside could give confirmation we need for a bearish trend.
A good short opportunity in my opinion is therefore a trade with entry at the 200 day mooving average. Stop loss can be placed above 20 & 50 MA or above the decending channel top if you want to give the market more room..
It's a trade worth taking even tho we could break the ressistance and go into price discovery aswell.
A short term target would be a test of the support we had at 56 500 and a intra- day target would be at the low end of the channel at about 50-52k.
Make sure to follow me on X for more weekly updates: @PuppyNakamoto
Our wolf pack are hunting for profits, one block at a time..🐺
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Structure
EURNZD Trade PlanEURNZD has completed a W FCP pattern but did not reverse. It is now at a structure resistance level which can make it fall. Wait for sell confirmation. If that comes this can be a good short opportunity.
If the price breaks and confirms the previous high, we will go long based on the confirmation.
If you found this interesting please consider supporting this analysis by liking, commenting, and sharing with friends, colleagues, traders, and trading communities. Thanks👍🙂
Is Gold About to Surge or Drop? Handle XAUUSD's Next Big MoveChart 1: 15-Minute Timeframe
Key Observations:
Trendlines: The chart displays an ascending channel pattern. The upper and lower trendlines are drawn to capture the price action within this channel.
Resistance Zone: There is a marked resistance zone around 2470-2480, where the price has faced rejection multiple times.
Support Levels:
Immediate Support: The lower trendline of the ascending channel acts as immediate support.
LQZ/Reversal Point: At 2429.19, there is a significant level indicated, likely a liquidity zone or a potential reversal point from a higher timeframe.
Chart 2: 1-Hour Timeframe
Key Observations:
Higher High (HH): The chart indicates a higher high formation at the recent peak, suggesting an uptrend.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above the resistance zone around 2480 and holds, it could target higher levels around 2520 and potentially 2550.
Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break the resistance and instead breaks down from the ascending channel, it could move towards the LQZ/Reversal points at 2429.19 (1-hour) and 2391.39 (4-hour).
Support Levels:
1-Hour LQZ/Reversal Point: At 2429.19, providing a potential support zone for a bullish reversal.
4-Hour LQZ/Reversal Point: At 2391.39, indicating a deeper support level from the 4-hour timeframe.
Immediate Support: The lower trendline of the current ascending channel.
Summary:
Immediate Focus: Watch the price action around the resistance zone (2470-2480) for potential breakout or rejection.
Bullish Confirmation: A breakout and retest above 2480 could signal a continuation towards higher targets.
Bearish Confirmation: A breakdown from the ascending channel and below the immediate support levels could trigger a move towards the lower LQZ/Reversal points.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 2470-2480
Support: 2429.19 (1-hour LQZ), 2391.39 (4-hour LQZ)
Gold Hits Record Highs! Skyrocket Further or Sharp Reversal?4-Hour Time Frame Analysis:
Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL): The chart displays a clear upward trend with higher highs and higher lows. This indicates a bullish market structure.
Ascending Channel: The price is moving within an ascending channel, showing a steady increase in value.
Key Levels:
1-Hour LQZ / Reversal: 2429.940
4-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: 2391.394
Potential Take Profit (TP) Levels:
TP 1: 2319.385
TP 2: 2288.085
TP 3: 2267.832
Current Price Action: The price has reached the upper boundary of the ascending channel, suggesting a potential reversal or breakout. Traders should watch for confirmation before taking action.
1-Hour Time Frame Analysis:
Higher High (HH): Similar to the 4-hour chart, the 1-hour chart also shows a higher high, indicating a bullish trend continuation.
Ascending Channel: The price is respecting the ascending channel, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Key Levels:
1-Hour LQZ / Reversal: 2429.940
4-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: 2391.394
Current Price Action: The price is at the top of the ascending channel. Traders should look for signs of a reversal or a breakout above this level to gauge further price movements.
15-Minute Time Frame Analysis:
Ascending Channel: The 15-minute chart shows a detailed view of the ascending channel with the price closely following this structure.
Key Levels:
1-Hour LQZ / Reversal: 2429.940
4-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: 2391.394
Current Price Action: The price is currently at the top of the channel, suggesting a potential short-term reversal or continuation depending on the breakout direction.
Summary:
Bullish Trend: All three time frames show a clear bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows.
Ascending Channel: The price is moving within an ascending channel on all time frames, which supports the bullish outlook.
Key Reversal Zones: Pay attention to the 1-hour and 4-hour LQZ / Reversal points at 2429.940 and 2391.394 respectively.
Potential Reversal: The price is currently at the upper boundary of the ascending channel on all time frames. This indicates a potential reversal if the price fails to break out. Traders should wait for confirmation before entering trades..
Trade idea - EURNZD Long4H
Market was moving in Bull Flag formation.
3rd touch of trend line was aligning perfectly with the -68 Fibonacci.
Missed the early entry on this trade.
New opportunity now to get involved.
Bullish impulse: indication .
Pattern within pattern: confirmation.
Inverse Head & Shoulders, Bullish M.
Clear support & resistance zone is there.
1% risk
Meta Platforms - Flying under the radar...NASDAQ:META just rallied +500% without any correction and might create a top formation soon.
Sometimes the trading gods are sending us gifts from heaven. We received such a gift back in 2022 when Meta Platforms - out of nowhere - corrected -70% and perfectly retested the lower support of the reverse triangle formation. After the +500% rally from there, it is quite likely that we will see a short term retracement. But the overall trend is still clearly towards the upside!
Levels to watch: $530
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Alphabet - It is just a textbook company!NASDAQ:GOOGL has been one of the best performing stocks over the previous decade.
The most profitable stocks are the ones which trade under the radar. And Alphabet (Google) is definitely one of these stocks which is simply trending higher, providing textbook trading opportunities and not a "hype" stock. Slow and steady wins the race, but you have to be careful that you don't miss your chances. After a retest of the breakout level, you can enter a long trade.
Levels to watch: $150
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Understanding Forex Market StructureHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Let's begin with our topic today!
The forex market, being decentralized and over-the-counter (OTC), operates differently from traditional centralized exchanges. To navigate it effectively, traders need to comprehend its unique structure.
Market structure refers to the arrangement of price action within a given market, encompassing key elements such as trends, support and resistance levels, and price behavior.
1. Trends:
Trends are one of the fundamental aspects of market structure. They depict the overall direction of price movement over time. Traders often classify trends as bullish (upward), bearish (downward), or ranging (sideways). Understanding the prevailing trend helps traders align their strategies accordingly.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
Support and resistance levels (or known as supply and demand levels/zones) are areas where price tends to stall, reverse, or exhibit significant buying or selling pressures. These levels/areas form the building blocks of market structure and are crucial for identifying potential entry and exit points. Support represents levels where buying interest outweighs selling pressure, preventing prices from falling further. Conversely, resistance denotes areas where selling pressure surpasses buying interest, hindering further upward movement. If you have cluster of candle's tail in a area/levels, likely it would be supply/demand liquidity pocket
3. Price Behavior:
Price behavior within market structure provides valuable insights into market sentiment and participant dynamics. Patterns such as higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend, signify the strength or weakness of a trend. Additionally, the manner in which price interacts with support and resistance levels can indicate potential reversals or continuations.
4. Market Phases:
Understanding different phases of the market, such as accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown, aids in deciphering market structure. Each phase reflects the behavior of market participants and their collective impact on price action. Recognizing these phases enables traders to anticipate potential shifts in market direction and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Conclusion:
In summary, comprehending forex market structure is essential for effective trading. By analyzing trends, identifying key support and resistance levels, observing price behavior, and recognizing market phases, traders can make informed decisions and navigate the forex market with confidence.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
*********************************************************************
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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EURUSD 13-17 May 2024 W20 - Weekly Analysis - EU & US CPI Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 13-17 May 2024 W20 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
The narrative surrounding the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the rest of its G10 peers continues to dominate the macro scenario in the market. On this, the FedWatch Tool tracked by CME Group sees the probability of a Fed’s rate reduction in September nearly 70%.
With the inflation reports expected this week (CPI), If inflation stays high but doesn't speed up much more, the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for a longer time. This is because the market is worried about inflation staying high, and if there's a surprise where inflation doesn't increase as much as feared, the reaction will likely be smaller. Powell, said they would only raise rates if they had convincing proof that their current policies are too tight.
Right now, the market expects interest rates to be cut twice by the end of the year. However, if we see another report showing high inflation, those expectations might change. A weaker report might lead to just one rate cut being expected instead of two, but not much more than that. The Federal Reserve might wait until their meeting in September at the earliest to make any major decisions, unless there's a sudden worsening in the job market.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.
3.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.
4.
Price tapped into a Weekly demand zone that is currently providing Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone which initiated the Bearish iBOS Pullback Phase.
As expected last week with the probability of a deep pullback, price reached the Daily Supply. With that deep Pullback, there is a HP that we can continue the Bearish INT Structure with expectation to target the Weak INT Low and possibly the Weak Swing Low.
More development required on LTF to show signs of Bearish Structure to validate the expectations.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
With the 4H INT is Bullish, it's for me not much aligning with the Daily TF which makes the view unclear from a trend prospective.
Are we going to hold Bullish Internal to maybe have a more deeper PB on Daily, or we are going to turn bearish on the 4H Internal to continue the Daily Swing/INT Structure trend.
With the current week inflationary reports coming out from EU and US, most probably we will have more price development that can facilitate a HP setups.
Economic Events for the Week
EURUSD 9 May 2024 W19 - Intraday Analysis - US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 9 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Nothing changed since the start of the week and as per Tuesday sentiment, investors are waiting for a catalyst to have a clear policy direction for the upcoming quarter.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
Nothing much changed since yesterday as we just tapping into a demand zone (FLIP) that may provide some bullish reaction.
INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply.
Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish.
More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Long : Phase B (LP)
Short : Phase C (HP)
2.
Finally we are barely out from Friday NFP Range and price still ranging with clear direction.
With a Bearish iBOS we confirmed the 15m Swing Pullback.
Currently price tapped and formed Bullish Sub-Internal Structure that is facilitating the INT Pullback.
Not convinced much of Longs as per our position in the HTF (Tapped into Daily Supply), instead will follow the Bearish INT Structure and look for Shorts from 15m Supply that are well positioned within the Swing.
3.
15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
EURUSD 8 May 2024 W19 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Nothing changed since the start of the week and as per yesterday sentiment here, investors are waiting for a catalyst to have a clear policy direction for the upcoming quarter.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
Nothing much changed since yesterday as we just tapping into a demand zone (FLIP) that may provide some bullish reaction.
INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply.
Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish.
More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Long : Phase B (LP)
Short : Phase C (HP)
2.
Finally we are barely out from Friday NFP Range.
With a Bearish iBOS we confirmed the 15m Swing Pullback.
Currently price tapped into a 4H Demand which could initiate the INT Structure PB.
Bullish CHoCH will be the first sign that the INT PB is starting.
Not convinced much of Longs as per our position in the HTF (Tapped into Daily Supply), instead will follow the Bearish INT Structure and look for Shorts from 15m Supply that are well positioned within the Swing.
3.
15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.