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EURUSD 13 Feb 2024 W7 - Intraday Analysis - US CPI DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Feb 2024 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m NOTE: As i came to chart today it had the confusion for the first time since months in a clear view on the 15m Time Frame. This is because the Price behavior since Jan 2024 is not trending clearly specially in the past 2 to 3 weeks. I decided to have 2 Scenarios for the 15m and will see which is the result after. I lean more Scenario 1 but lets see the at the end of the day what will be the results. It's one of these days that the market is telling you go do something else 😃 especially it's US CPI Day and one of the most waited news events since last FOMC meeting. 4H Chart Analysis (Nothing major changed since yesterday) 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount / Possible LiQ Sweep 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is fully mitigated and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per previous days analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Swing is still Holding. From the Fractal CHoCHs happening after Sweeping the LiQ below the 4H Swing Low showing that demand in control. We are currently in the Pullback Phase of the Bearish iBOS and expectations to continue Bullish till the INT Structure EQ and maybe extending to the INT Extreme Supply. 15m Chart Analysis - Scenario 1️⃣ 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Pullback Phase 2. INT Structure turned Bullish with iBOS confirming that the 15m Swing Pullback started as expected and we may have a deeper pullback. After iBOS we expect a pullback which already started after a Bearish INT to INT Structure iiBOS. As we didn't reach the Swing EQ or any HP POI we will have still the probability to continue up to maybe the 4H Supply Zone. 3. The INT Structure had finished after the Bullish iiBOS. Price is currently mitigating the INT to INT structure and expectations set to the target the Weak INT to INT high and then the INT High. 15m Chart Analysis - Scenario 2️⃣ (Correction INT Bearish) 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Continuation Phase 2. INT Structure turned Bearish signaling that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the continuation phase targeting the Swing Low. After iBOS we expect a pullback which is already started after a Bullish CHoCH reaching the INT Premium area but didn't mitigate any HP POI. Expectations is set to targeting the Weak INT Low and continuation to target the Weak Swing Low. 3. Demand Zone formed on the INT Pullback which is currently providing reaction and expectations is set to take out the current Weak INT Low.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 12 Feb 2024 W7 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Feb 2024 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount / Possible LiQ Sweep 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is fully mitigated and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per previous days analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Swing is still Holding. From the Fractal CHoCHs happening after Sweeping the LiQ below the 4H Swing Low showing that demand in control. We are currently in the Pullback Phase of the Bearish iBOS and expectations to continue Bullish till the INT Structure EQ and maybe extending to the INT Extreme Supply. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Pullback Phase 2. INT Structure turned Bullish with iBOS confirming that the 15m Swing Pullback started as expected and we may have a deeper pullback. After iBOS we expect a pullback which already started after a Bearish CHoCH. As we didn't reach the Swing EQ or any HP POI we will have still the probability to continue up to maybe the 4H Supply Zone. 3. As long we we respect the Bullish INT structure we are good to go up. Once we have the Bearish iBOS, the narrative will be that the 15m Swing pullback is over and we will be looking to target the Weak Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 12-16 Feb 2024 W7 Weekly Analysis - US CPI WeekThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 12-16 Feb 2024 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: Weekly Daily 4H Economic Events Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ (Pro Swing + Pron Internal) 2. After the Bearish iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low. Price reached the INT Extreme and tapped the Weekly Supply Zone and as expected we are targeting at least the CHoCH and then the Weak INT Low. Price did the Bearish ChoCH and formed a fresh Supply zone which will be potential for shorts once reached to continue the Bearish INT structure and Swing too. 3. With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase. Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from. Still the OF is Bullish within the Pullback Phase and the Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign to confirm the Bearish continuation from the Weekly Supply. Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish. Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Reached INT Extreme 2. Within the Bearish Swing we are currently in the Swing pullback reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone (But didn't reach the Daily Supply) and started the INT Structure Pullback after the Bullish iBOS. For the Bearish Swing to continue bearish, we want to see a Bearish iBOS to confirm that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the Swing Continuation to target the Weak Swing Low. But currently the INT Structure still Bullish so there is also a possibility that we can still continue up. We still in the Daily Pullback Phase and price reached the last Daily demand zone. As Swing is Bearish, Expectations that there is a high probability that we will take the Strong INT low. On the Flip Side (Bullish) we could hold the current Demand/INT Low to target the Weak INT High. Lets wait to see more price development and LTF to guide us. 3. Price had mitigated the adjusted Supply zone. OF is bearish in the INT structure pullback Phase and is so corrective in nature. (Supply in Control) 4. Price mitigated the Daily Demand and failed to break the Strong INT Low (Micro pips below). Is it a Sweep of LIQ? In order to confirm the Sweep, i need to see at least a Bullish CHoCH. 5. Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount / Possible LiQ Sweep 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is fully mitigated and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per previous days analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Swing is still Holding. From the Fractal CHoCHs happening after Sweeping the LiQ below the 4H Swing Low showing that demand in control. We are currently in the Pullback Phase of the Bearish iBOS and expectations to continue Bullish till the INT Structure EQ and maybe extending to the INT Extreme Supply. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 9 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - US CPI RevisionsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 9 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per previous days analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Still Holding. We had formed this Bullish CHoCH yesterday and according to that we formed a fresh demand zone that could have the potential to provide a deeper pullback to the 4H iBOS and maybe the continuation on the 4H Bullish Swing. And as i was waiting for the 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. The 15m aligned with the 4H expectations and we initialized the Pullback Phase for the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 15m Bearish Swing. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Pullback Phase 2. INT Structure turned Bullish with iBOS confirming that the 15m Swing Pullback started as expected and we may have a deeper pullback. After the Bullish iBOS we initiated the pullback of the INT Structure and reached the 4H Demand and we directly bounced back up. We reached the 4H Supply where price is currently reacting. 3. Mitigation of the 4H demand formed a 15m Demand. Not a HP demand for longs but it will provide a reaction if reached. Wouldn't be much convinced to long from this demand again as i'm expecting the orders taken already from the 4H are enough to continue up and reach the Weak INT High. If price reached that deep to this demand, my expectations that we will have a HP move to break the 15m Weak Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
EURCAD - Wait For The Bulls 🏹Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, On Daily: Left Chart EURCAD has been bearish but it is currently approaching a robust support zone so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. On H4: Right Chart 📈 For the bulls to take over, we need a momentum candle close above the last major swing high marked in red. 📉 Meanwhile , EURCAD would be bearish short-term and can still trade lower inside the daily support. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
EURUSD 8 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m NOTE: Nothing had changed much since yesterday we just managed to reach the 15m INT High but we didn't close above it. So mostly still on my expectations of yesterday. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per yesterday analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Still Holding. We had formed this Bullish CHoCH yesterday and according to that we formed a fresh demand zone that could have the potential to provide a deeper pullback to the 4H iBOS and maybe the continuation on the 4H Bullish Swing. I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply at the INT High. Lets wait for the LTF to guide us. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Waiting Pullback Phase 2. Swing is Bearish and we are currently in the bearish momentum after the break. Price reached the 4H Swing Low and the Daily INT Low and failed to close below for 2 times now (Just wicked micro pips below it). Could be a sweep of LIQ or just mitigation and continuation bearish. No HTF POI mitigation yet. From a structure prospective, We are expecting a Pullback for the 15m Swing and the 4H INT Structure. I'll wait for the pullback phase after the 15m Bullish iBOS putting in consideration that there is a HP that we can create a Bearish 4H BOS and Daily iBOS. (Shorting the lows or after Break of Structure is not my edge) Lets wait and see more price development. 3. 15m INT Structure is bearish and we are in the continuation after the Swing BOS. Price failed for the 2nd time to break the 4H Swing Low/Daily INT Low yesterday and formed a Bullish CHoCH on the 4H. With that CHoCH we created a 4H Demand (Not the most convincing zone but better than nothing :D) Price had mitigated the 4H Supply and the Strong INT High held and price failed currently to break. But be mindful that there will be a Swing Pullback and it seems started and most probably we will have a Bullish iBOS and a deeper pullback.
by Amr-Sadek
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EURUSD 7 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - US Trade BalanceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per yesterday analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Still Holding. We had formed this Bullish CHoCH yesterday and according to that we formed a fresh demand zone that could have the potential to provide a deeper pullback to the 4H iBOS and maybe the continuation on the 4H Bullish Swing. I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply at the INT High. Lets wait for the LTF to guide us. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Waiting Pullback Phase 2. Swing is Bearish and we are currently in the bearish momentum after the break. Price reached the 4H Swing Low and the Daily INT Low and failed to close below for 2 times now (Just wicked micro pips below it). Could be a sweep of LIQ or just mitigation and continuation bearish. No HTF POI mitigation yet. From a structure prospective, We are expecting a Pullback for the 15m Swing and the 4H INT Structure. I'll wait for the pullback phase after the 15m Bullish iBOS putting in consideration that there is a HP that we can create a Bearish 4H BOS and Daily iBOS. (Shorting the lows or after Break of Structure is not my edge) Lets wait and see more price development. 3. 15m INT Structure is bearish and we are in the continuation after the Swing BOS. Price failed for the 2nd time to break the 4H Swing Low/Daily INT Low yesterday and formed a Bullish CHoCH on the 4H. With that CHoCH we created a 4H Demand (Not the most convincing zone but better than nothing :D) 4H Supply within this INT Structure is the only supply that could provide a Bearish continuation. But be mindful that we could start also the Swing Pullback at anytime.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 6 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - EU Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. In order to confirm a Sweep, i need at least a Bullish CHoCH as reaction from the Swing Low otherwise we will take the Swing Low as per the HTF expectations. I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply at the INT High. Lets wait for the LTF to guide us. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Waiting Pullback Phase 2. Swing is Bearish and we are currently in the bearish momentum after the break. Price reached the 4H Swing Low and the Daily INT Low and failed to close below (Just wicked micro pips below it). Could be a sweep of LIQ or just mitigation and continuation bearish. No HTF POI mitigation yet. From a structure prospective, We are expecting a Pullback for the 15m Swing and the 4H INT Structure. I'll wait for the pullback phase after the 15m Bullish iBOS putting in consideration that there is a HP that we can create a Bearish 4H BOS and Daily iBOS. (Shorting the lows or after Break of Structure is not my edge) Lets wait and see more price development. 3. 15m INT Structure is bearish and we are in the continuation after the Swing BOS. 4H Supply within this INT Structure is the only supply that could provide a Bearish continuation. But be mindful that we could start also the Swing Pullback at anytime.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 5-9 Feb 2024 W6 Weekly AnalysisThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 5-9 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: Weekly Daily 4H Economic Events Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ (Pro Swing + Pron Internal) 2. After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low. Price reached the INT Extreme and tapped the Weekly Supply Zone and we are currently targeting at least the CHoCH and then the Weak INT Low. 3. With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase. Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from. Still the OF is Bullish within the Pullback Phase and the Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign to confirm the Bearish continuation from the Weekly Supply. Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish. Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Reached Extreme 2. Within the Bearish Swing we are currently in the Swing pullback reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone (But didn't reach the Daily Supply) and started the INT Structure Pullback after the Bullish iBOS. For the Bearish Swing to continue bearish, we want to see a Bearish iBOS to confirm that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the Swing Continuation to target the Weak Swing Low. But currently the INT Structure still Bullish so there is also a possibility that we can still continue up. We still in the Daily Pullback Phase and price reached the last Daily demand zone. As Swing is Bearish, Expectations that there is a high probability that we will take the Strong INT low. On the Flip Side (Bullish) we could hold the current Demand/INT Low to target the Weak INT High. Lets wait to see more price development and LTF to guide us. 3. Price had mitigated the adjusted Supply zone. OF is bearish in the INT structure pullback Phase and is so corrective in nature. (Supply in Control) 4. Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback and the current CHoCH is the INT High. So either price engineer a new CHoCH or it will target the INT High (i Doubt we have catalyst for that this week). I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply. Lets wait for the LTF to guide us. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
High probability setupThis is what I'm going to be looking in the market for the next long term journey, this is a special setup based on patience, strategy and price action, high probabilities and high R:R, works better in high timeframes, we have just wait for the firt confirmation which is: 1. Shift of structure, after watching that we have to look for: 2. A good RESISTANCE/SUPPORT zone where the price is rejecting in Daily of 4H and search for a: 3. Chart pattern which can be a HEAD AND SHOULDERS OR DOUBLE BOTTOM, DOUBLE TOP..., if we have these confirmations, we can look for the last which is: 4. Candlestick pattern: in the shift of the structure which can be an engulfing, an evening/morning star or marubozu, also can be a doji with the wick for our direction Each one of these confirmations are 22% probabilities for our strategy, after getting all them we can enter the trade, put the stop loss a bit above or below the last structure point and take a 1:3 risk reward and the most important part is: SET THE TRADE AND FORGET, Allow the price to go where it has to go, don't change the T.P, don't change the S.L, accept the risk of the trade and take a loss if is the case or take a win if the market allows that, and continue with the plan, IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A 100% CHANCES, so even if you have all this confirmation, you can lose and you have to ACCEPT IT, for that: Stick to the RISK MANAGEMENT thinking in percentage, I recommend to use a 1%-2% per trade, and that's all BE PATIENT AND SMART, THINK IN LONG TERM Remember: "The market is a mechanism for transferring money from the impatient to the patient"
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDEducation
by TraderEaglefx
EURUSD 2 Feb 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 2 Feb 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low. After iBOS we expected a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting. Price did the Pullback and failed after to break and close below the Weak INT Low. This leaded to target the High that failed to break the low. Still the INT is bearish but in point #2 we are assuming that Bullish Swing Continuation could start at any time so this could be the one. Bullish iBOS will be a solid sign for that. More Price development needed to assess better. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Swing Extreme 2. Swing is Bearish after mitigating a HTF Supply. After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the15m Swing Extreme and 4H Supply Zone. INT Structure still bullish so there is HP to take out this Strong Swing High. On the Flip side, a failure to create a Bullish BOS and we get a Bearish iBOS will indicate that the Swing Pullback is over and we could be starting the Pro Bearish Swing Move. Today NFP so be cautious. 3. 15m/4H Demand zones for reaction when reached.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 1 Feb 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI - US PMI/JobsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 Feb 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low. After iBOS we expect a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting. Price made a ChoCH yesterday confirming the INT Low and a Sweep of Liq to continue the bearish INT Structure. Currently we are going to take this INT Low and there is a high probability that the Swing Low is the target after. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish 2. Swing is Bearish after mitigating a HTF Supply. After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ. With the news yesterday price Swept Liq above the Strong Swing High and the 4H CHoCH to resume the move to the down side targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low. Most probably this Swing Low will be broken. 3. Currently price is in Bearish INT Structure and expectation that we will break the Swing Low. Just be mindful that Shorts now are not preferred as we are at the end of the move. Will wait to see if there is option for Pullback plays after the BOS or hold my hands this week for better opportunities next week.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 31 Jan 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - FOMC Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 31 Jan 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low. After iBOS we expect a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting. We mitigated the 4H Supply and price reacted from there. Currently we don't have a Bullish CHoCH to confirm the INT Structure Pullback started (It's not a must but it's currently my mechanical approach to define Pullbacks). Price could continue down to create a new low and then the CHoCH position will be changed or Price will try again to create a Bullish CHoCH. Waiting for more price development 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. Swing turned Bearish again after mitigating a HTF Supply. After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ. Price reached and mitigated the 15m/4H Supply zones and INT structure turned bearish signaling the 15m Swing Pullback is finished and we are currently Pro Swing aligning with the Bearish Swing as expected. Expectations is that we will target the Weak Swing Low. 3. After INT Structure turned bearish (iBOS) we expect a pullback. The 15m Supply zone within the INT Structure is the only zone that can provide Short opportunity after confirmation. Be mindful that today there is heavy news for Germany, but the most waited news is the US ADP and FOMC/Powell Conference so volatility will be high.
by Amr-Sadek
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by Yelli_trades
1
EURUSD 30 Jan 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - EU GDP / US JobsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Jan 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low. After iBOS we expect a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting. Will be waiting for 15m to align with the 4H request to start a pullback. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Reached EQ 2. Swing turned Bearish again after mitigating a HTF Supply. After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ. Expectation that we are going to target the 15m Weak Swing Low but be mindful that we are currently in Bullish INT Structure. 3. We are currently in Pullback Phase of the Bullish INT Structure. But after the 4H Bearish iBOS the momentum is to the down side. Shorts are the preferred option until the 15m Swing turns Bullish to facilitate the 4H INT Bearish Structure Pullback.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 29 Jan 2024 W5 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Jan 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish OF Bullish In Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the Swing EQ/Discount, mitigating 4H demand zones and ranged. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS indicates that the 4H Swing Pullback had finished and we are starting the 4H Bullish Swing Continuation Phase to target the Weak 4H Swing High. 3. Bullish INT Structure after mitigating the 4H/Daily demand Zones. As we are starting the Swing Continuation Phase, this INT Structure Low is the last structure point to hold for the 4H Swing Continuation Phase. If it failed, there is a high probability that we will target the 4H Swing Low. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Reached EQ 2. Swing turned Bearish after failing at HTF Supply. After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ and mitigated the 4H Supply. Expectation that we are going to target the 15m Weak Swing Low but be mindful that we are currently in Bullish INT Structure and the 4H Demand formed after sweeping the LIQ below the 4H Strong INT Low. Wouldn't be much convinced to Short in a 4H Demand Zone. So waiting for more price development. 3. We are currently in Pullback Phase of the Bullish INT Structure and mitigating the 4H Demand Zone. With Swing is Bearish and INT Bullish and we are in Swing Discount, it makes it tough for me to prefer a trade. I'd prefer a new structure after the BOS down or iBOS up.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 29-2 Feb 2024 W5 Weekly Analysis - EUR CPI - US FOMC/NFPThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 29-2 Feb 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: Weekly Daily 4H Economic Events Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ INT Extreme 2. After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low. 3. With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase. Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from. Still the OF is Bullish within the Pullback Phase and the Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign to confirm the Bearish continuation from the Weekly Supply. Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish. Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Reached Extreme 2. Within the Bearish Swing we are currently in, the Swing pullback reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone (But didn't reach the Daily Supply) and started the INT Structure Pullback after the Bullish iBOS. For the Bearish Swing to continue bearish, we want to see a Bearish iBOS to confirm that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the Swing Continuation to target the Weak Swing Low. But currently the INT Structure still Bullish so there is also a possibility that we can still continue up. We still in the Daily Pullback Phase and price reached the last Daily demand zone. As Swing is Bearish, Expectations that there is a high probability that we will take the Strong INT low. On the Flip Side (Bullish) we could hold the current Demand/INT Low to target the Weak INT High. Lets wait to see more price development and LTF to guide us. 3. Price had mitigated the adjusted Supply zone (Was mapping only the Inside Bar) that caused the bearish CHoCH and continued down. Current PA is so corrective and doesn't have any momentum. 4. Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish OF Bearish In Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS indicates that the 4H Swing Pullback had finished and we are starting the 4H Bullish Swing Continuation Phase to target the Weak 4H Swing High. But be mindful that the OF is so bearish in the Swing Pullback Phase and Demand is not holding and we see momentum. And with the Daily Bearish Swing there is a high probability that we will continue down. So be cautious with the Bullish Structures as it could be only Fake-Out. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bullish INT Structure after mitigating the 4H/Daily demand Zones. As we are starting the Swing Continuation Phase, this INT Structure Low is the last structure point to hold for the 4H Swing Continuation Phase. We have seen that Price swept the LIQ below the Strong INT Low and created a Bullish CHoCH but still Supply in Control. If the last demand created from the LIQ sweep failed and we confirmed a close below the INT Low, My expectations will be that the Daily Swing Continuation in Play and we will take the Current 4H Swing low and Daily INT Low. This week is so volatile as we have EUR Zone GDP and CPI also USA FOMC and NFP. So be cautious this week. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 26 Jan 2024 W4 - Intraday Analysis - US PCEThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 26 Jan 2024 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish OF Bullish In Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the Swing EQ/Discount, mitigating 4H demand zones and ranged. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS indicates that the 4H Swing Pullback had finished and we are starting the 4H Bullish Swing Continuation Phase to target the Weak 4H Swing High. 3. Bullish INT Structure after mitigating the 4H/Daily demand Zones. As we are starting the Swing Continuation Phase, this INT Structure Low is the last structure point to hold for the 4H Swing Continuation Phase. If it failed, there is a high probability that we will target the 4H Swing Low. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish INT INT Bearish At Swing Extreme 2. Swing turned Bullish after mitigating the 4H/Daily Demand zones as expected yesterday. After the BOS we expect a 15m Swing pullback which we are already in this phase after the Bearish CHoCH. INT Structure turned bearish to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback. 3. Price currently at the Extreme Swing low and there is a high probability that we are going to take the 15m Strong Swing Low according to the Bearish PA.
by Amr-Sadek