Structure
A Study of Perceived Value - MESI'm looking at MES on multiple time frames and I believe the 2hr chart gives some outstanding detail and clarity on what has been going on in the markets as of late.
Using the fixed range volume profile tool and studying consolidation periods we can see that the perception of value has clearly dropped through the end of August and into September.
While I will not speculate on what may or may not have affected the drop and the recent rally, I will say that it appears as though MES has broken out of recent value and the high of it's range at 4019.25. This breakout point has yet to have been retested as a level of support.
A Fibonacci retracement with extensions taken from the high of the range to the low of the range (shown in black) shows prices interacting with the 'golden zone' between the 1.382 and 1.618 - finding resistance squarely on the 1.5 extension.
A second Fibonacci retracement taken from the high of the earlier consolidation area to the most recent current range low shows that price has interacted with a 0.618 retracement.
Together, this is strong confluence of resistance. Another element that suggests a local top (or potential reversal into the prior dominant down trend) would be the indecisive candle. We could use the high and low of the indecisive candle as a potential trigger to enter either long or short positions, respectively and a multi-timeframe approach to either entry could lead to spectacular reward to risk ratios for traders.
The overall picture looks relatively bearish long-term to me. Value has been established at a lower high and lower low than previously and price has retraced back to where it should. There is validation in both Fibonacci techniques that suggest a local top is in. This could lead to a retest of the 4019.25 level near term. If held as support, long positions at that level could lead to very profitable day and swing trades.
We should also note that the POC and value area of the earlier range has not been tested. As a result I intend to look for prices around 4140.00 as a potential target for long trades or a potential entry for shorts. This is, of course, if prices continue upwards in an uptrend.
Overall I'd say that I am leaning bearish on the S&P500 - at least until higher lows are established and resistance is used as support. Such is not the case on the the 2 hour time frame currently. I will say, however, that entering short without a trigger in this current environment seems unwise in my personal opinion. It's a good time for me to watch, understand value and the perception of value, and wait for an actionable trigger that would confirm bullishness or bearishness prior to entering a trade.
Patience pays.
Good luck everyone and Happy Trading!
GBPUSD SHORT BIASLooking at GBPUSD it seems as GBP gained short term strength to grab -devious liquidity as well as its seems it may be a start to a buy side transition in trend. I’ve market out relevant demand zone and discounted area in which I feel is a key area for continuation to the upside supply zone. Alert is set I will wait for price to come down to my POI.
NASDAQ INDEX SHORT TERM ANALYSIS (A CALL OPPORTUNITY!!)The total evaluation for the NASDAQ chart is concurrently bearish over the past few months, but remained bullish in an overall decades of terms. Please be mindful of your risk management and trade accordingly with fundamentals and proper market structure (this includes familiarity towards candlesticks, indicators, etc.)
There is a very good chance we will pump right above the point of control where the volume is at its strongest, this is called a "REACTION RALLY" to the dump we just suffered the past weeks. This is especially stronger since we are sitting on a support that we just bounced around June and May 2022, this is the 3rd back-test and re-test which can serve as a strong notion for a long/call position. Simultaneously, this pump can also push crypto to 19,800$-20,200$ and ETH to 1,720$-1,750$ only fo r EVERYTHING TO GO DOWN conveniently on a bad CPI report on September 13.
Quite coincidental am I right? Its approaching resistance and there's a cpi report, maybe too obvious of a pattern for market makers but fear not, I recognized this and wanted to share it to you all!
If you are wondering what are the jitteries on the circles and everything, the full chart can be found in my profile. Its in the same NASDAQ name but in a longer term of analysis, the same information and movement can be similar
to the SP500 therefore it is not necessary for me to make another chart regarding it.
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ETHEREUM PERSONALY ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (SUPER BULLISH!) The total evaluation for the ethereum chart in the short term is bullish. Please be mindful of your risks as usual and the only reason as to why I am writing this with bullish sentiment because as you can see in the chart, the volume profile gave us a clear indication as to why we did not dump for 3 days because of the fact that this area has so much volume congestion of trading activity -- it literally served as support. We might reach 1800$ at this point or depending on the trajectory we might even get a second retest at 2,000$. Goodluck everyone!
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Dollar Currency Index (DXY), 4-Hour, Supply reactionI think there is a probability of a correction in the dollar index. We can notice a false breakout of the trend line and price reactions to the supply zones. It is not a perfect reversal or correction pattern (because there is no higher high), but we can expect it is a break of the structure (because of a supply reaction). Anyway, we should be careful on the nearest uptrend line and look carefully at the construction. Don't expect far TP as we have an overall uptrend.
Wave Projection on Gold 4hUnder the 5th swing of the dollar strength, expect gold to continue drifting down.
Double top of the Gold weekly makes me believe this key range bottom 1683 level will be retested.
This is a Elliot Wave projection on gold using Extended Fibs. One of the key monitoring is whether the strong 1683 weekly level be broke or hold when approached.
ELITE 1337 DAY MEGA STRUCTURE—————————
ME: I would ask you to sit down, but you’re not going to anyway.
ME: And don’t worry about the stock market.
YOU: What stock market?
BOOM.
ME: That stock market.
YOU: How did you Know.
ME: Ohh, Whats really going to bake your noodle later on is… would you still have broken it if I hadn’t said anything….
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If you read any of my old posts from last year you might be familiar with one of these H&S patterns I posted trying to predict the top of the markets.
The bullish harmonic zone referred to in there is the .618 fib retracement.
To find this mega structure, you only need to look at the weekly chart and add some Fib retracements for for the March 2020 crash.
From peak to trough, then again from trough to new peak and you have your bullish retracement.
Another Fib tool I use for this mega structure is Fib Timezone which is a Fibonacci number sequence.
Each number is the sum of the last two numbers. The sequence starts like this: 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and so on
If you map from 0-1 in reverse from the peak (January 4th) to 12 weeks back you will find there is a major swing high/low/reversal in order leading back all the way 2000 decline.
5 - swing/high low after covid recovery
8 - marks 2020
13- marks 2018 bear market
21 and 34 are not very relevant
55 marks 2008 decline
89 marks 2000 decline
Now the real PHUN begins. Flip the timezone 12 weeks into the future to get forward looking swings that match the historic ones.
The lower fib sequence is to be ignored because there is to much noise.
But I like to study noise patterns and here is what I see in the noise.
HS1 - First Head and Shoulder
On the weekly its hard to see, but I have used these structures for the last year and they keep completing.
HS2 - Second Head and Shoulder
Take a look at the pin point accuracy this H&S 162% predicted the bottom June 13th in markets.
HS3 - Third H&S with a price target that is a magnet for a 50% retracement from trough to peak.
This structure hasn’t completed yet, but in my opinion will mark the second leg down.
HS5 - The 5th sequence is after September and will likely mark a big rally in November. This structure 168% is the bottom of Covid Cycle.
HS8 puts us to Nov 2023 with the left shoulder being the Covid Crash.
From shoulder to shoulder of HS8 will be approx. 1337 (LEET speak translates to ELITE) market days
I’ll stop there because we couldn’t possible complete HS8 and look to completing 13…
Because that would be the D word… Depression.
If we are at the end of a debt cycle like Ray Dalio predicts in the changing world order…
Whatever, this is just a bunch of tinfoil hat nonsense… right?????
Right????
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But always remember, You’re in control of your own life.
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I promise once you see this cookie, you’ll feel as right as rain.
🧭ETHUSD quick video analysis. Why it's still bearish?ETHUSD seems to keep bearish structure and in this video I try to explain why I think so.
Here's a disclaimer: this idea is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Your trades are yours only, and your complete responsibility. I'm not particularly bullish or bearish on any given instrument, I'm just following the strategy I learned from my teachers and that's all. We can have completely different views on the market and still both make profits.
🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀
💬Send your comments and questions below, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
NZDCAD NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE🚀Hey everyone. As we all can see the clean descending channel followed by a reversal pattern which might possibly make the next bullish implusive move to the up side🚀. I am Waiting 💆🏾♂️ for a double bottom or a lower time frame reversal pattern to take some possible entries💯.
Thanks for reading
GOOD LUCK AND AS ALWAYS, TRADE SAFE AND STAY SAFE!🤝🏾
PEACE 🔥
🔍EURUSD DETAILED video analysis. Structure, Supply (re-upload)Hi everyone, this is a re-upload of the previous video, I'll explain why in the video. Thank you very much for the many comments and support from the previous video, but now it is all lost :)
Here's a disclaimer: this idea is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Your trades are yours only, and your complete responsibility. I'm not particularly bullish or bearish on any given instrument, I'm just following the strategy I learned from my teachers and that's all. We can have completely different views on the market and still both make profits.
🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀
💬Send your comments and questions below, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
EURCAD Detailed Trading Plan! Let's GO!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**EURCAD - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEXThe DXY (Dollar currency index recently reached its recent major supply zone (resistance).
Currently ranging within the zone, many traders have had much anticipation for its drop in previous minor zones.
This may be the right time for that pull back.
If the pullback does come, the weakness in the dollar will see USDXXX pairs tank and XXXUSD pairs push up.
Fingers crossed for GBPUSD
CADJPY Swing Upwards +100 PipsWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**CADJPY - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
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Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
BBBY: Trading the Meme This stock is all over the news these days.
Many pro traders in the biggest banks are shorting this stock; WSB is longing.
Looking at the monthly structure, it is looking better for bulls in my books. Though some of the juice has already been squeezed, it still has room for further upside for long exposure. For those not in it by now, it will be increasingly more challenging to have a good risk profile from here. At least a 20 dollar per share downside risk if one is to be exposed to short risk at the current market price.
Following this stock as it has some wild moves and will update if anything interesting is happening.
Cheers!