MARKET STRUCTURE IN US_500 (SP_500)The S&P 500 index is currently in a bullish trend, forming higher highs and higher lows. However, it recently created a series of equal highs, followed by a lower low. If the index breaks below the recent low, it could be an indication that the trend is turning bearish. On the other hand, if it breaks above the equal highs, the bullish trend is likely to continue. Traders should keep a close eye on these key levels and use them as potential points in their trades. Happy trading!
Structuredtrader
EURJPY TRADE IDEAWaiting pullback
My trading strategy isn't intended to be used as a signal service. It's a process of gaining knowledge of market structure and improving my trading abilities.
Like and subscribe and happy trading to all
OTHER PATTERNSIn this video, We talk about other patterns like the Ascending channel, Descending Channel, and Divergence.
I hope this helps us in our journey
Cheers ♥🤟🏼💡
Zoom in on BO's, BOF's and what goes into a moveI'll edit this to add my text explanation later tonight...
2nd chance entries (CL)Deeper look @ breakout setups.
Blindly selling Lows or buying Highs is a recipe for disaster in the long run.
But the right kind of buildup can legitimize a breakout (BO) entry. When a breakout failure (BOF) does NOT immediately make a strong move in the other direction, you've got to ask yourself -- has the power balance really shifted?
If not, it could just be another example of pressure building in the original BO direction.
** Also, take a look at the breakout entry at B (no buildup) vs D (buildup). Especially relevant for a coiling market like crude oil.
GC strong buildup ahead of breakout with FOF setupSee chart for notes.
When a breakout failure DOESN'T immediately create a strong move, ask yourself who's really in control.
BOF's can create powerful moves, but early entrants can also be proved wrong really quickly. If they are, what does that do for your narrative?
A+ Setup: The best kind of build up This is the sort of setup that will make your week, month, or even your year.
You know when you just "know" a setup is going to work?
Well, I'd like to stop "just knowing" and actually define this. Because this is the sort of thing, if you traded exclusively, you'd have ridiculous W% and R stats, and crazy growth.
Here's why this setup is GRADE A+:
There's an overall, big picture bias. In this case, the D1 looks very heavy.
There's nothing that happens premarket to challenge that idea. Instead, the premarket action helps strengthen the bias. In this case, it's a wedge against the level we're looking at. Price has floated down to a level that's been tested twice and never really altered.
AT THE OPEN...Price forms a clear range within the 1m range. Price breaks out up (against our bias), but quickly traps longs and closes back down into the rage and quickly collapses.
That's SUCH a significant trap that it breaks past the low of premarket (the most important level) and straight to low of prior session. Prior lows COULD have been a great level for longs. BUT, as soon as the prior session lows were accepted, price was only going one way (and not chopping).
It's really a fantastic setup. Study it, use it.
NG short @ Daily SupportPretty simple -- if price drops through the green box, I'm looking for shorts on the 15m/H1 depending on the time of day.
NG doesn't move as nicely as more contracts, but you'll still see strong moves at the right areas. The more it compresses BEFORE attempting a breakout short, the more I like the trade idea.
NQ testing important resistance NQ1!See chart for summary.
I don't think the market has topped here, but I do think there's an opportunity for short term shorts to nail a momentum move down AFTER a fail at the zone. I included the EMA's here because they provide a good visual tool...a pullback to the 25 EMA + zone + price action fail....that's essentially what I'm looking for. Ideally I'd like to see it developing on the H1 and execute on the 5m tomorrow.
That's very specific, and like I said before, I've been burned by the NQ many times on technical setups. This is a algo heavy instrument that's perfected the art of the fakeout + trap.
If I'm completely wrong and price busts up through the level, this is still a chart worth studying.
Why?
Two reasons:
1. Momentum will come into the market here. First step in good trading is to identify when/where opportunities will present themselves.
2. The second step is knowing which direction to pick. I'm a discretionary technical trader...and if I'm clearly trapped, it's a chance to study how the NQ will set up attractively to one side and then slam the other way at the last minute.
Either way, watch for the move that's coming.
AUD/JPY looking shorts after D1 bears re-establish themselvesPretty simply....we've attacked this level really inefficiently over the last couple of weeks. Since that big gap down, price re-filled the area, retested the volatility expansion area, and failed to recover up past the preceding wedge.
Bias is down, looking for setups on the H1.
Checking in on the NQ breakout (NQ1!)Not a whole lot to say that's not obvious on this chart. I just want to point out that getting in on a level like this, we expect a CHANGE IN STATE, from coiling range to explosion (up OR down). Part of the issue is to identify the right times to get in, when explosive moves are going to happen and THEN get in on the right entries. Two separate skills.
USDCAD H1 practical setupsSometimes the setups don't come at the right times. So what do you do?
Here's a breakdown of some alternative entry strategies you can think about.
GBP/JPY retest of a prior lowWe watched this level break recently, and I mentioned I would have preferred to see a pullback before a big move....so here's a pullback. I'm usually hesitant to execute on the D1 because of the huge stops required....but might be looking for H1 entries in the next 12-24 hrs. The reason this isn't an A+ setup is that the level itself hasn't been completely tested yet, space to the upside....if we get that I might get much more excited.
NQ major test coming up (NQ1!)The NQ is one of the trappiest contracts out there, so watch what happens at this level. It's worth zooming in to the 15m just to study the aftereffects in a few days.
The longer it builds up near the High WITHOUT breaking it, the more I'll be biased long. If we probe it overnight, I'll be back to cautiously looking.
Ideally I either want a naked attack in the morning WITHOUT a preceding spring --> that's mean a short, expecting a trap and a major drop in the market.
OR I'd like to see price come down a bit at the open, scoop, and re-attack the High --> that's grounds for a breakout trade.
Remember, D1 analysis and shorter time frame execution means different things for different people. Do NOT trade the NQ unless you are experienced...
USDCAD getting ready for different big picture scenariosPretty simple, we're wedging at an important level. This is NOT a gimme setup because we're not really trending yet.
Let's watch for buildup at the level and see if we get naked attacks vs buildups....we'll have a better clue as to what's going to happen. Updates to follow!
AUD/USD finally turns and sets up (idea update #4)This was the sequence I was waiting for all week.
Bears reclaim control with strength, the move slices through the entire zone, THEN price stalls....it's a beautiful thing.
Please refer back to the attached ideas/charts from earlier this week, you'll see my commentary. Specifically, it's the strength of the move through the level that put this pair back into playable territory.
USDCAD idea update - why you must get your entry rightHere's another example of the larger time frame providing plenty of chances on the lower time frame.
A healthy breakout is one with buildup against the level under attack. If we keep probing/failing....and STILL attacking the level from closer and closer, you know where the pressure is.
I'm sure you already use variable size to consistently risk the same % of your account per trade. i.e. keeping risk the same whether you're accounting for 10, 20, or 30 ticks/pips.
I'd suggest adding another filter - standardizing the SIZE of your stops. By that I mean if you're taking trades with stops between 10-30 ticks/pips, that's fine. But what if another move suggests a stop of 100 pips/ticks? Can you expect the same R out of the move? Are you actually just chasing price?
This filter will get you to be more disciplined about your entries, keeping them tight and decisive.
This move was already extended. But the level was attractive enough I expected a healthy push at least to the levels I marked out.
This is very different to trying to get in with a young, strong trend. You've got to recognize what you're trying to get out of the move and how the market is likely to react at SPECIFIC points.
AUDUSD idea update See chart notes for why we're still in a Bearish shape and why I'm not looking for an entry anymore.
Yes, retests are nice areas to get in. No, I don't care for wide stops nor do I have the patience to sit through vague ideas finding clarity. We could easily come back down to the pink zone and then bounce back up.
D1 is hugely important for healthy analysis. And if you've gotten into a strong move, managing the trade for a longer term move on the D1 is a great strategy to minimize your trigger happiness.
I need one more step of analysis THEN look for trades on my timeframe. So please don't take blind entries -- bias does not equal "get into a position".
Why an early fail can actually HELP a breakoutThis is a great example for traders of all timeframes to study. I don't really have time for people basing trades on wide zones - that's fine for analysis, but for a TRADE, you've got to see the fight at a specific level. When you draw these correctly, you can get a really great picture of evolving sentiment and balance of power shifts.
Most traders treat breakouts way too lazily. You don't just enter at a new High/Low. You NEED buildup.
Any naked attack from distance is likely to fail. But what if it only pauses, instead of crashing?
Do you redraw the level? Do you avoid the trade completely?
What works for me:
Talk out the developing scenario. A fail failed? Ooh, interesting. Maybe there's more power on the original side than expected.
Once the breakout's happened, how is the other side thinking? I was biased long, getting everything I wanted to see....but what would the Bears want to see? Probably a close back under the grey/yellow boxes, right?
But wait, now that we created another temporary level during the failed probe, there's another level price needs to break through before even attempting the yellow level and then grey boxes!
--> this makes for a likely bounce point, and creates several chances for late entries. Best of all, it means a breakout entry at the original level will be protected by that bounce and your trade stays green.
EURUSD moment of truthWe've already seen a shift in power to the Bulls on a shorter term level. Now we're testing the original point of expansion, which is often a natural level for price to retest before resuming trend.
However, in this case Bulls are coming at the level with a LOT of power. I wouldn't make any trading decisions until either the red lines are cleared and retested to the long side, or price is significantly rejected at this volatility expansion retest.
Again, I'm looking at the 5/15m timeframes, and I need to see something dramatic happen on the H1/D1 first. Great fight to study, though. If you're still holding a short position, I imagine you're sweating :)
AUDUSD - idea update shortEarly weakness at the edge of the S/R zone.
Assuming we'll have several opportunities on the 15m/H1 if price emphatically resumes the move down.
AUDUSD pullback to an interesting zone; looking for H1 setupsNo setups yet, but looking for weakness. A pullback as far as the dotted trendline is still a short bias, so there's a wide zone I'm looking at. I'll post if/when it develops on the H1.
Trade idea: USDCAD breakdown with aggressive coversAs mentioned on the chart, this is NOT a swing idea, and it's a totally different trade if there's a gap involved.
The support zone is tight, which I like for a daytrade. There are 2 clear levels where orders are tucked (past the yellow zone and past the dotted green line.
IF we get nice buildup ahead of the yellow level break (which is what's happening so far), combined with D1 heaviness....I'll be looking for a breakout. Since it's the weekend, a gap will likely screw up the buildup pressure and invalidate this whole idea. But if things remain relatively tight ahead of the yellow level, I'm thinking breakout.
