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Study Sunday: Why I took this Gold Trade (1H/15m)I usually just review my trades privately but today I figured why not share if it helps someone else, or maybe someone has input that can help me too. The video is basically me reviewing a trade i took this week on gold (sept 22), and why i took it. I like to draw the candles out myself to consciously think about where price moves relative to the candles around it, then when i watch the charts I have a more intuitive feeling of how candles form and move and I know what I am looking for. I dunno if that makes sense or it is just a thing i do lol But here is another thought i have been thinking about recently regarding trading: I think that when you are trying to learn to be a profitable trader, it is valuable to keep your plan as simple as possible. And then build on it, and reshape it as you learn. But build slowly as you learn new lessons so you have a strong foundation. I see so many people that are in a rush, and that will only make you feel overwhelmed and eventually fail. I think it is especially difficult with trading because there is so much information out there and lots of people apply different strategies and have different opinions. It can be attractive to jump from one strategy to another if you feel like what you are trying is not working. And of course there are times when you must drop an idea to test another. But you should be doing so objectively and not emotionally. You should be able to measure the changes empirically as you make them. So that in the long run you build a trading plan that makes sense to you; that is the only way you will truly have confidence with trading. And you need confidence to grow an account because you will be risking a lot more with your future trades.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SoManyDistractions
NASDAQ 100The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors: www.nber.org On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance: onlinelibrary.wiley.com Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies: onlinelibrary.wiley.com A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction: deliverypdf.ssrn.com Can Mutual Fund “Stars” Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis: rady.ucsd.edu Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns: www.newyorkfed.org Do the Fama-French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?: efmaefm.org Further readings: The Econometrics of Financial Markets by John Y. Campbell, Andrew W. Lo, A.Craig MacKinlay Quantitative Financial Economics: Stocks, Bonds and Foreign Exchange, 2nd Edition by Keith Cuthbertson, Dirk Nitzsche
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Fx-AlphaStrats
Education: VolumeIntroduction A financial transaction involving an exchange of goods results from a mutual agreement between buyer and seller. When referring to securities like stocks, an amount of goods exchanged between these two parties is called a volume. On a chart, the volume is often represented by green and red bars below the graph of a particular security. Information about the volume can give an analyst a better sense of market sentiment and help with the timing of trades. Volume and liquidity The amount of liquidity in a market translates to the ability to buy or sell a security. Money market instruments and marketable securities are considered to be liquid assets. However, market conditions do not always allow for enough liquidity, which is reflected in the volume. Sometimes, low liquidity may result in volatile price action, trend reversals, market gaps, etc. Generally, securities with high daily volume are more liquid than securities with low daily volume. Market holidays and shortened trading sessions have a tendency to be accompanied by low daily volume. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows Histogen Inc. on a daily time frame. Penny, micro-cap, and nano-cap stocks, which trade over-the-counter, are notorious for their low daily volumes. The price-volume relationship Analyzing the price-volume trend can reveal additional clues for the successful execution of a trade. Usually, an asset's simultaneous increase in volume and price is considered positive. Additionally, it often confirms a bullish thesis. However, a decrease in volume accompanying an ongoing rise in the price may give a technical analyst a hint that fewer buyers are willing to buy an asset. Therefore, a technical analyst should treat the decrease in volume and increase in price with some skepticism and pay close attention to it. The same rule applies when volume increases and price decreases simultaneously. Some analysts like to differentiate between significant and insignificant moves depending on the volume size. Price moves that occur on low volume tend to be considered less important than those on high volume. Typically, volume tends to increase as a trend develops. In an uptrend, a security tends to top when buyers are no longer willing to pay the asking price and start leaving a market. In a downtrend, a bottom tends to form when sellers lessen their selling pressure; or a substantial portion of new buyers enter a market. In some instances, quick and sharp growth in volume can signal the beginning of a new trend; or it may imply new traders have entered the market. Illustration 1.02 The illustration shows the Covid 19 crash in 2020. Volume can be seen increasing in the early stage of the crash; it is accompanied by a fast and sharp drop in price. Eventually, volume can be seen decreasing towards pre-pandemic levels, reflecting weakening selling pressure. Reporting Each market exchange tracks and reports its volume data for a particular security. Volume is regularly updated throughout the trading session. However, the figure is only estimated as final figures are reported on the following day. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NYSE:GMEducation
by Tradersweekly
7
Predictive Power of Bearish Chart Patterns This is a little, pseudo-study I did on SPY (SPX) analysing bearish chart patterns and whether or not there was a statistically significant relationship between bearish chart patterns and sell-offs and if so, to what degree? Most of the literature says that chart patterns and technical analysis are not useful and that chart patterns are the circumstances of randomness. Most research argues that you cannot dictate what a stock will do based on the candlestick charts and patterns, as these only offer retro-spective perspectives in the stock and are not able to be used prospectively. I, as someone with formal education in statistics and also as a full time trader, am torn between these analyses. On one hand, I can see where the researchers are coming from, on the other hand, I know it can’t be 100% true because many people are successful trading these strategies. While my personal strategy relies primarily on math, I would be lying if I said that I did not let chart patterns influence my decisions to some extent. Also, the majority of people conducting these studies are not themselves traders. I, as someone who published and familiar with conducting research studies, figured meh. Why not get it straight from the horses mouth and do this myself. So alas, here we go! I will present this as academically and rigorously as possible! Procedure: I looked at ONLY bearish chart patterns, particularly the patterns: head and shoulders, double top and triple tops. This was conducted ONLY using the 1 hour time frame, as the 5 minute time-frame would have been too labour intensive. Additionally, I had included bear flags in the bearish chart patterns, however bear flags usually accompanied head and shoulders and double tops, which were more visible first and thus, I ended up not having any cases of bear flags to include. The time frame was 1 hour and I included just over 2 years of data, from 2020 through till Friday. The data was collected using TradingView’s platform and analyzed using SPSS v25. Definition of Bearish Chart Pattern I was somewhat lax with my interpretation of double tops and head and shoulders; however, the major inclusion criteria is that they had to be clearly interpretable as the bearish chart pattern. If I had to look and analyze it in-depth with lines, etc., then it was not included. It did not need to be perfect, it could be lopsided, it just needed to be easily recognizable as the pattern. However, Heikin Ashi candles were used to easily identify the patterns and verified via line charts. Results Between January 2020 and April 2022, on the 1 hour time frame, there were a total of 24 clearly observable bearish chart patterns. The breakdown is as follows: Double Top: 12 incidents (50%) Head and Shoulders: 9 incidents (37.5%) Triple Top: 3 incidents (12.5%). The success rate of all patterns was 83.3%. The most successful chart pattern was a triple top. Of the three documented incidents, the success rate was 100%. The next was head and shoulders with a success rate of 89% (8 passes and 1 fail). The least successful pattern was the double top with a success rate of 75% (9 successes and 3 fails). The results, and this is the KEY point, WERE in fact statistically significant via analysis through T-Test with a P value of 0.001!!!!! This means that these results cannot be attributable to chance or randomness and in fact, have statistically significant meaning. Out of all the patterns, the average sell off that accompanied it was a drop of 10 points (standard deviation 11.27). Of the instances that failed, the average rise in price was 9.72 points (standard deviation of 4.66). Below is a list of the average point sell off by chart pattern when successful: Head and Shoulders: -12.33 (SD = 9.58) Double Top: -8.59 (SD = 14.03) Triple Top: -9.06 (SD = 5.56) Conclusion / Limitations: Please note, that this is far from what I would deem scholarly research. The problem with this type of research is trading is highly subjective and in the eyes of the beholder. So, what may be a double top to me, may not be to someone else. I tried to maintain some rigor by making sure that I only included extremely obvious patterns. That said, the time frame is still kind of small to draw sizeable conclusions. As well, my results contradict other, peer reviewed research. However, I have actually found some recent ish research that does support technical analysis and chart patterns. So I am not completely going against current research with this conclusion. And these results tend to support my personal experience trading these patterns. Also, it is important to understand that this analysis was done with SPY and SPY alone. Thus, I can’t say that these patterns will have the same result on other equities like TSLA, it would only be generalizable to SPY/SPX. However, I can say for certain based on this study that over the past 2 years and 3 and a half months, double top patterns, head and shoulders patterns and triple top patterns were correct 83.3% of the time. And that's it. Leave your questions/comments/critiques below! Thanks for reading!
SP:SPXEducation
by Steversteves
21
$SPY looking bearish or bear trap?$SPY closes on red last Friday after bullish run for the past 10 plus days. this pull back is expected to happened. in my technical opinion $SPY could possibly continues to pulls back on Monday but the key that I'm looking for is 445-441.11 anything below that price will be bearish move. if you're feeling bullish, SPY needs to break the 462.28 resistance for bullish continuation. at this moment, the news has been the same lately about geopolitical and domestic policies. other than that stand by for possible big news. Day trade or scalp target play: 04/04 /22 Buy call above 456.20 sell at above 458.80 Buy puts below 448.83 sell at 445.80 or below Hello everyone, welcome to this free technical analysis . ( mostly momentum play ) I am going to explain where I think this stock is going to go over the next day or week play and where I would look for trading opportunities for day trades or scalp play. If you have any questions or suggestions which stock I should analyze, please leave a comment below. If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that LIKE button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for stopping by and stay tune for more. My technical analysis is not to be regarded as investment advice. but for general informational proposes only.
AMEX:SPYShort
by CHRIS_B58
3
Here is why I suggest you should use the SUPER TREND!I see the weekend is here. A new week is about to begin, and it's time to get organised, reflect on your progress so far, and learn something new to help you achieve your trading goals., and boost your profitability. Let's be honest, I am someone who normally likes to follow the trends. A lot of the trend following indicators I've encountered along the way in my professional and career growth haven't made sense to me. Moving averages, Average Directional Index, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, Parabolic SAR etc. I always had a lot concerns with the indicators being able to swiftly follow the price movement, as well as identify a clear reversal of the underlying trend. However, I came through to find this SUPER 'super trend' indicator some while ago, and by testing this and adding it to my intraday trading strategy, I finally see that I could rely on one single indicator to help me identify the trend quickly and more efficiently (never 100% of course it is still not a holy grail!) but the results were good enough for me to write down this post to you guys. What is the Super trend indicator? 'Super trend,' as the name implies, is a trend-following indicator, similar to moving averages and MACD. It is plotted on prices, and the position of the prices reflects the current trend. When we build the Super trend indicator, the default settings are 10 for the ATR and 3 for the multiplier. The average true range (ATR) is important in 'Super trend' since it is used to determine the indicator's value and it indicates the degree of price volatility, which is one reason why this indicator beats Moving averages, which disregards price volatility. Super trend Indicator Formula The super trend indicator computation is illustrated below– Up = (high + low / 2 + multiplier x ATR) Down = (high + low) / 2 – multiplier x ATR Average True Range = / 14 The number 14 represents a period in this context. As a result, the ATR is computed by multiplying the previous ATR by 13. Add the most recent TR and divide it by the time. As a result, ATR is an essential component of the supertrend technical analysis indicator. How to Use Super trend Indicator to Identify Buy and Sell Signals? Super Trend, as a trending indicator, performs well in trending markets (both uptrends and downtrends). When the indicator flips over the closing price, it is easy to identify a buy-sell indication. When the Super Trend closes below the price and the colour turns to green, a buy signal is issued. A sell signal is generated when the Super Trend closes above the price and the colour of the Super Trend changes to red. There is no such thing as a 100 percent accurate technical indicator, and Super Trend is no exception. It also produces erroneous signals in sideways markets, however it produces fewer false signals than other indicators. As a result, you may use Super Trend in conjunction with other indicators to provide more accurate trade signals. Follow my daily analysis posts on my account to check out how to combine it with other momentum indicators as well as use it for multi-time frame analysis!
Education
by MohannadYakout
Forecast | StudyNotes: Anticipating an odd ball earnings play: "if I do get a positive response on SMG's earnings I think it will be on a trial basis, gapping up only to sell and close lower for the day" (I published SMG for study purposes). About SMG: "Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. engages in the manufacture, marketing, and distribution of systems and accessories for hydroponic gardening. It operates through the following segments: U.S. Consumer, Hawthorne, and Other. The U.S. Consumer segment consists of consumer lawn and garden business. The Hawthorn segment includes indoor, urban, and hydroponic gardening business. The Other segment refers to the consumer lawn and garden business in geographies other than the U.S. and product sales to commercial nurseries, greenhouses, and other professional customers. The company was founded by Orlando McLean Scott in 1868 and is headquartered in Marysville, OH."
NYSE:SMGShort
by UnknownUnicorn28743597
Crypto bottleneck cointinues to tightenWe've been hugging the lower end of the Bollinger Bands since the November peak, without much chopping between. The bands continue narrowing, and moving sideways. If you believe in the power of the bands, you might note just how wide the risk : reward spread has gotten across the market. Massive gainer potential here folks! It might be choppy though, be careful! FTT Upper Target: 44.42 (+17%) Lower Target: 35.09 (-7%) BTC Upper Target: 53k (+26%) Lower Target: 40k (-4%) ETH Upper Target: 4349 (+38%) Lower Target: 3029 (-4%) Which side are you trading?
F
by calmrat
BTC/USD: A Christmas Weekend Study FUNDAMENTAL BACK-DROP *Imho, if there was ever a time to expect fireworks, it's right now. *Weekend trading session for the next ~2 days. Institutions and majority of players are offline for Christmas day and/or weekend. Perfect environment for fuckery. *US holidays, and Christmas in particular, are proven to be powerful market events. (Often see pivots in price/sentiment through these windows). *"Buy when it snows, sell when it goes." - it's that time of year! **Recent CME event (listing ETH micro futures ) on Dec. 6 **Positive reaction from most recent FOMC meeting on Dec. 15 **Recent full moon phase change on Dec. 20 LOWER-TIME-FRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS *Structurally, price is trading within a megaphone pattern (making higher highs and lower lows). This implies high volatility in both directions until the megaphone is resolved. *Certainly trading against some key highs right now (top end of the range). In good shorting/selling location right now for people who think this rally into Christmas is bulslhit. HIGHER-TIME-FRAME TECHNICAL CONTEXT *Price is coming awfully close to triggering a major double bottom , drawn off the 1D chart. (The counter-trend rally high following Dec. 4 liquidation cascade). *$51,995 is the level to watch. I'm officially "uber-bull" if we start closing above this level. *Bullish momentum divergence confirmed ( MACD ) and continuing to build on the 1D chart. -- LIKE THE ANALYSIS? Send me a DM . I'd like to build a community of half decent traders and technicians.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by bitflip01
1
OTE entry on GBP/USD - NY Killzone ICT concepts, ICT tradersI have been studying forex on and off for about 7 years now, And nothing has created results like developing an understanding of TIME PRICE LIQUIDITY SENTIMENT ( AKA THE ICT OTE ) My learning and studies remind me of a statement made by a previous teacher in my martial arts training, "fighting, When it happens is going to come down to 1 or 2 moves that you know really well and can execute in the worst circumstances" The brain seeks to understand and simplify things so that we can save our cognitive load, This is essentially the function of the Reticular activation system. Many mentors from all walks of life will teach this concept, And ICT mentions this time and time again in his series on Youtube, Train the brain to see what it needs to see. I feel as humans, we overcomplicate processes, Turn them into rituals that are blown out of proportion and then worship them, This does not lend itself to success in my opinion. For me, Forex is simply - Time, price, Liquidity, Logical sentiment direction. This creates the bias that allows me to pull the trigger without emotion. Disclaimer: yes this is a demo trade, Yes this is a STUDY and share of knowledge for education and collaboration purposes, I have nothing to sell you. simple example of the ICT OTE working within, And just outside of the NY kill zone, I had already taken a position of the market as seen in the MT4 DEMO account. the "live trade" was a re entry at a new valid level after I had "made my money" with a smaller position. YouTube - ICT www.youtube.com
Short
by hunterprotocolFX
The weekend is when the deep work happensWhat do you use your weekends for? The Forex markets are closed, but your mind shouldn't be. This time is best used reviewing and learning about the week before. Take this trade for example, it had it all-5min Buy range, Change of character, BOS, 1min buy range, pull back to the equilibrium, pull back to range impulsive move. This happened later Friday night my time, however by reviewing it I get to see how good this trade would have been for those awake. As always trade safe, I'll see you on Market open! EnvisionEJ
Long
by EnvisionEJ