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Palladium Suffering From Big Selling!Palladium saw a 93% rally from the August 2018 low to the March 2019 high and with every big move we can expect to see price become exhausted and form a pullback, reversal or consolidation. In this case, we saw a period of consolidation which appeared in the form of a cup & handle pattern. A cup & handle in an uptrend is a strong continuation pattern but only if the neckline is broken. That did occur on September 19th 2019 and since then we have seen a 13% rally. The pattern of trends followed by pullbacks continues and we are currently experiencing just that. The current pullback has moved down 122 points in just 2 days and is currently finding support at the 50sma. To confirm a continuation to the upside we want to see a break and close above the October 30th high at $1,823. If price fails at the current support area then we have the resistance turned support level at $1.615 which is a major support area. We need to give price some time and space to move and as the overall trend is up, the bias is for a continuation to the upside. In the meantime, we have to see if price will follow the momentum and continue trending for some time. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by Sublime_Trading
2
Will The S&P 500 Take A Breather Soon?The current climb from the October 3rd low has now grown to 8%, that's a 1% increase from the previous week. As a reminder, price broke through the previous all-time high set at $3,028 on October 28th 2019 and we are yet to see a pullback. If you notice all the rallies highlighted on the chart, they were all followed by a pullback or consolidation. The previous rally was 7% before a pullback occurred and the current rally has risen by 8% so far. If this rally is similar to the previous one then a pullback may be coming soon but we can never predict the market's next move. Price may have other ideas and continue to rally for some time before we see any exhaustion in price. What we can do is be prepared in case a pullback develops and anticipate where price may pull back to. We have the support from the previous all-time high at $3,028 which is a strong level of support. Below this, we have the $3,000 round number psychological support zone. The move up from the October 3rd low has been linear so it wouldn’t be foolish for us to anticipate a pullback happening soon. If we have a break and close above the November 7th high at $3,097, it will confirm a continuation to the upside. We must now allow price to dictate the next move to determine our next actions. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
SP:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
2
Nike Is Using Round Numbers As SupportFollowing the 2+ years of consolidation from December 2015 to May 2018, it was likely that price was going to trend to the upside after breaking out. Usually, when price consolidates for lengthy periods of time, it tends to form a big trend in the direction of the breakout. As the breakout occurred above resistance, we may see a trend continue for weeks if not months. A consolidation lasting for a number of years normally develops into a strong linear trend but in the case for Nike, we have seen more of a choppy trend with deep pullbacks. What is apparent about these pullbacks is that they have been finding support at round numbers. The first pullback after the consolidation period began when price started to decline in September 2018 and price found support in December 2018 at the $70 round number. Then price headed back up and soon pulled back to use the $80 round number as support in August 2019. After price briefly held at $80, it found momentum and shot up through the $90 round number with ease, only to pull back and use $90 as support where it currently lies. If price follows the current pattern, it shouldn’t be too long before we see another move to the upside. What we will have to wait and see is if price can break through the $100 major round number and also pull back to use it as support. One thing to note is that the behaviour of a stock or any instrument can change over time. Price may decide to move away from the pullback pattern and form a strong linear trend when it passes $100 in which case we will witness a fast-moving trend. As for now, we will have to wait and see what price decides to do next. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NYSE:NKELong
by Sublime_Trading
The S&P 500 May Need A BreatherSince the 20% decline up to December 2018, just after it seemed like doom and gloom for the S&P 500, the market has found its strength again and has climbed up from the low of December 26th at $2,346 to its current price of $3,078. This is an overall rise of 31% in just over 10 months. With a gap and break above the major previous resistance level at $3,028 on October 28th, price has looked active and shot even higher by the time it came to the end of last week. As with most sprints, you eventually need some resting time before the next leg and Monday’s candle closed with an indecision candle and may indicate some form of breather or pullback. We can’t determine what price may do from one candle but usually, when price breaks through a strong support/resistance area, we can expect a pullback sooner or later which is natural market behaviour. Price may surprise us and continue to form bullish candles and we may not get a pullback for some time which is why we always want to let price dictate the next move. A pullback in the S&P 500 followed by another breakout to the upside will signify a continuation of the bull trend and will offer plenty of breakout opportunities across the board. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
SP:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
2
Apple Approaching $250!With an overall bullish trend seeing a rise of over 1,955% in the space of 11 years, Apple has seen some impressive growth. Thanks to new popular products such as the iPhone and iPod, the growth continues and doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. Along the journey to the top, price has stumbled a number of times along the way in the form of pullbacks. Following the 744% rise from November 2008 to September 2012 we saw a decline of 43%. The 145% rise in April 2013 to April 2015 wasn’t as huge but was still classed as a strong trend and following this, price declined 32%. The next advance of 159% saw a sharp decline of 39%. Each of the pullbacks following strong trends came to find support around the weekly 200 simple moving average , and has seen an average decline of 38%. This pattern appeared to work like clockwork and would have gifted traders who could identify this pattern with an abundance of profits. Price broke above the previous all-time high of $233, from the high created in October 2018, earlier this month. There may be further moves to the upside over the next few weeks and months as we have only seen a rise of 75%. In comparison to the previous trends, the minimum rise we have seen is 145% but a similar move is not guaranteed. As price is creating new all-time highs, there is little resistance in the way except for round numbers. The next round number is $150 which is currently less than a dollar away from where price is now. If price can easily sail through and above this round number, then we may see price move towards $300 and even beyond. Now that the S&P 500 has started to create new all-time highs, the odds are in favour of a longterm bull trend. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Sublime_Trading
2
S&P 500 Making Record Highs!The S&P 500 has hit a record high with price finally breaking through the previous all-time high which was set at $3,028. With price making a new high of $3,044 we may see new records being hit with the emergence of a bullish trend. The first attempt at breaking through the previous all-time high on September 19th 2019 failed, which then saw price retreat to find support between the daily 20 & 50 simple moving averages. The second attempt brought more buyers to the battle and they have successfully pushed price straight through the major resistance formed by the previous all-time high, which is now support. Price does tend to fill the gaps, so it shouldn't come as a surprise to us if we experience a pullback. Price may also pull back to retest support which was previously a resistance level and then bounce back to the upside. We also have to keep in mind that the sellers may force price back into the consolidation period which lasted for 3 months from July 26th 2019 to October 28th 2019. If price does return back into conolidation then it could end up going sideways for a while longer and we would just have to wait for the next breakout. Looking at how things are now, the S&P 500 is bullish and we will be looking for long trading opportunities again in both the US and UK stock markets. Based on historical data, the trends usually start to emerge during October so it’s quite timely to see a breakout in the S&P 500 in the final days of October 2019 and we will hopefully be seeing further breakouts. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
SP:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
2
Will The S&P 500 Begin A Bull Trend Soon?We have seen some good progress being made in the S&P 500 recently but price has struggled to find its footing over the past few months. This is a change from the period from December 16th 2018 to May 1st 2019. During this 5 month period, we saw how price rallied 25%, climbing from a low of $2,346 to a high of $2,954. This $608 rise soon saw a decline of $226 with the pullback finding support around the 200 simple moving average in June 2019. By the beginning of July 2019, price had created new all-time highs and even broke through the all-important $3,000 round number psychological resistance during the 10% rally. Since then we have seen price remain in consolidation and continues to do so. This consolidation has lasted for almost 3 months which is a fairly lengthy amount of time. It is difficult to predict how long price will remain in consolidation but we are currently seeing some strength to the upside. A breakout of the consolidation resistance will confirm a continuation of the previous uptrend and we should see a strong bull market unfold. Historically, trends begin around October and if history does repeat itself then we should have our list of stocks ready to trade as long as our strategy permits us to enter them. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
SP:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
4
The British Pound May Suffer Further From BrexitWith Brexit just around the corner in the UK, the future remains uncertain for the UK markets. What effect Brexit will have on UK stocks or the British pound is anyone’s guess. In 2007 British holidaymakers were enjoying an exchange rate of $2 for every £1 which gave them double the buying power, the highest its been in history. Looking at recent activity in the GBPUSD, the pound has weakened against the dollar, and since October 2007 we saw a huge 35% decline from a high of 2.1161, reaching a low of 1.3501. Such a big move is likely to exhaust price and this is exactly what followed. Price has since been resting as it was held in a 7 year period of consolidation. With such a lengthy consolidation period, we can expect price to trend strongly once it does decide to fully wake up. The death cross, where we saw the 50 sma cross below the 200 sma in April/May 2015, confirmed a downtrend. Since then, price has used the 50 sma as resistance forcing it further to the downside. A break below the strong support level which hasn’t been broken since October 2016, which is 3 years, should see a nice downtrend emerge. It has been a while since we saw a strong downtrend, such as what we experienced in 2007/2008 and it wouldn’t be surprising if the same thing happened in the near future. Below support, we have the 1.1000 round number which may act as support, so caution is advised if short trades are taken. Unless price can move above the 200 sma, we may see the pound continue to decline for some time. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Short
by Sublime_Trading
6
Nike Showing Us They Can Just Do ItWith an average volume of 6.3 million, Nike Inc is continuing to soar to new heights in the markets which is probably spurred on by sales being up 41% in the first quarter of 2019. Looking at the technical side of things, we can see from the weekly chart that price has been clearly trending to the upside over the long-term. Price was in a strong bull trend from March 2009 from a low of $9.56. Over the next 6 years, price catapulted over 590% making easy returns for investors holding onto Nike Inc shares over this period as price reached $68.19. With every huge trend, there will come a period where price will become exhausted and either pull back deeply or enter a long period of consolidation. This will generally take place before price resumes the trend or may even result in a complete reversal. In this case, price entered a long period of consolidation lasting 2 years and 5 months from December 2015 to May 2018. The consolidation was held up by using support in the form of the $50 round number, which is a psychological support zone. As mentioned, long periods of consolidation usually follows huge trends, the same is true the other way round. Huge trends usually follow long periods of consolidation. We may just be at the early stages of a strong bull trend in this stock. When price broke out in May 2018 we saw a strong move to the upside, then price pulled back sharply and retested resistance turned support in December 2018. This support level gave price a push up once again and has since been creating higher highs and higher lows. The 50 sma has been used as support along the way which also helped price escape from the recent consolidation zone breaking above $90. Nike Inc is now creating new all-time highs and may continue to climb for some time. One thing to bear in mind is that we have the $100 round number which is a strong psychological support/resistance zone. We may see price comfortably move through this level or reverse at that point or go into consolidation. We can never predict how price will behave, so it’s best for traders to just wait for price to break through $100 before looking for long opportunities. Price is just over 500 points away from $100 so we may not have to wait too long before buying shares. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NYSE:NKELong
by Sublime_Trading
2
EURUSD Falling Towards Major SupportThe EURUSD has been on a decline since February 2018 and appears as though it may continue its descent towards the major support level at 1.0462. Brexit may have a part to play in the decline but whether it does or not, we want to pay attention to the charts because the charts do not lie. The December 2016 low to the February 2018 high is a 100% Fib Extension of the July 2012 low to the May 2014 high. After hitting the Fib Extension price started to move back to the downside. Although we have seen a 12% drop in price since February 2018, price is still within a 4+ year period of consolidation. Even if we do see price make contact with the major support level at 1.0462, a breakout is not guaranteed. Price may bounce off support and continue to consolidate for much longer. What we do know is that the longer price consolidates for, the bigger the move we can expect in the direction of the breakout. 4 years is a really long time for price to consolidate, so a break below support may see a big trend emerge which may even be larger than the 25% decline we saw in 2014/2015. Remember that round numbers (RN) are also support/resistance zones and we have the 1.0000 RN 462 points below the major support level, but a strong trend will make light work of this RN. A death cross occurred in August 2019 which is a sign of potential weakness to come. It is now a waiting game to see how price behaves over the coming days and weeks. If we see a break of support at 1.0462 then we will start to consider shorting opportunities. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Short
by Sublime_Trading
6
Will The S&P 500 Make Record Highs This Year?The potential impeachment of President Trump coupled with the White House deliberating over delisting Chinese shares from the US markets could result in unexpected turbulence in the markets. Such news events can have a negative or positive effect on the markets. But it can be almost impossible to predict the effects these events may have, which is why we always want to allow these events to pass and take trades only once the turbulence has subsided. Monitoring the news when making trading decisions can have a negative effect on our trading results. We mainly focus on the technical side of trading as opposed to the fundamentals because price action is more important and gives us a clear indication of how the market is performing. Let's now look at the charts for the S&P 500. On the monthly timeframe, price is trading above last year's high which was at $2,940. This is significant because that level may act as a strong area of support helping to push price up. We still need to see price comfortably break through the $3,000 round number. With the weekly timeframe, price is trading above the 50 & 200 simple moving averages (sma). The last contact price made with the 50sma was back in June 2019 where it acted as support, helping to push price up to where it is now. Going to the daily chart which you can currently see, it shows price attempting to tackle the previous all-time high of $3,028 on September 19th 2019. The sellers started to gain control causing price to fall through the support level from the May 1st 2019 high at $2,954. Price almost came down to the daily 50sma before making its way back up to where it currently stands at around $2,954 which is now a resistance level. If price has enough momentum to comfortably break through this level then we want to see the $3,000 round number broken, followed by the previous all-time high at $3,028. Looking at the bigger picture, the US market is bullish overall and if $3,028 is broken, then we should be in store for a continuation of the bull trend. News items can affect the markets over the short-term but the longer-term trend is usually unaffected. We will be standing aside until the S&P 500 creates a new all-time high. If and when this occurs, we will then look for opportunities for long trades in the stock market. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
SP:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
4
Palladium Is Leaving Gold In Its DustOften when we talk about commodities, the popular ones that come to mind are Gold and Silver. They have both performed well in the past. Gold is now looking interesting but has been stuck in consolidation since 2013 and silver is still range bound and requires multiple resistance levels ahead to be cleared before we will consider it. What good is trading an instrument purely based on its popular name if there is little chance to profit from it? Unhealthy attachments will kill your performance. Good trading is about being detached from the name and instead being able to focus on the charts to determine high-probability environments and setups. A commodity which is rarely spoken about and performing exceptionally well is Palladium. This metal is mostly used in catalytic converters for cars but can also be found in jewellery and dental fillings amongst other uses. With the way price is moving, you will also find Palladium on the watchlist of and in the trading accounts of some smart traders and investors. Why? Because price is rising, it is that simple! If we take a glance at the monthly timeframe we can see that price has been in a nice trend since January 2016 from a low of $454. Over the past few years, price has steadily been rising under the radar, moving up over 1,100 points which is an increase of over 250%. On the weekly timeframe, we experienced a strong trend from August 2018 at $833 to March 2019 at $1,615. This trend moved up by over 90% but came to a sudden halt in March 2019 where price pulled back and then moved into consolidation. The chart we can see is for the daily timeframe and we have highlighted the cup & handle chart pattern. In an uptrend, a cup & handle is a strong trend continuation pattern of the bull trend. Now that price has broken and closed above the high of this chart pattern, it confirms to us that the chart pattern has completed which is the first indication that we are likely to see the next leg up. Ideally, what we now need to happen is for price to pull back and retest the support, which was previous resistance. If the support level holds, we then need to see the buyers push price back up and break above a previous high as illustrated. This will confirm a continuation of the overall uptrend and we may see a strong trend to the upside. By applying patience and waiting for a pullback, retest of resistance-turned-support, followed by another breakout we drastically reduce the chances of getting caught in a potential head-fake which can happen after a lengthy period of consolidation. Applying patience is a key trait to a good trader as this will help us avoid an unnecessary loss if a head-fake does materialise on this initial breakout from consolidation. The daily 50sma is above the 200sma which indicates that we are indeed in an uptrend. Both the 20sma and The 50sma are likely to be used as support if a trend emerges which will help us with stop placement and exit management when our trading plan is met and we start placing long trades.
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by Sublime_Trading
2
Greggs Still Holding At £20Last post: See link below. Review: Price experienced a deep pullback and came down to find support at £20. Update: Price is currently still holding at £20 which is proving to be a strong round number. Conclusion: We want to see price gather some strength and climb away from the round number and eventually break above the previous high. Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments! Sublime Trading
LSE:GRG
by Sublime_Trading
Boohoo Looking Strong AgainLast post: See link below. Review: Price was stuck in a large period of consolidation and was not presenting any trading opportunities. Update: Price has now broken out of consolidation, which lasted over 2 years, and looks interesting again. Conclusion: We want the current support level to hold followed by a break of the previous high before we look for any long opportunities. Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments! Sublime Trading
LSE:BOOLong
by Sublime_Trading
The Pound Continues Its DeclineLast post: See link below. Review: Price was finding support at the 1.2000 round number. Update: Price attempted to break through support but is currently trading back above support but still below 1.2000 round number. Conclusion: We want to see if price will close below the round number and the support low of 2016 which will indicate further weakness in this forex pair. Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments! Sublime Trading
Short
by Sublime_Trading