Sugar
Sugar (Sugar No. 11 - May 2022) set to continue the trendI firmly believe raw sugar futures are set to continue their upward trend seen for months now. While they have consolidated for a time and recently dipped below temporary support, which could be mistaken for a trend breakout, I believe we are simply seeing a sell-off as a reaction to the futures having floated highly above the trendline for a long time. As pointed out on the chart, the recent sell-off is of a magnitude similar to earlier sell-offs, and furthermore, we are resting firmly on the trendline. However, the risk of a trend breakout is significant and I recommend a tight SL at 18.45. On the other hand, should my hypothesis prove right, enjoy the ride and take profits at your own discretion.
Sugar 1-day classic patternsQ: What has the highest probability of occurring?
There are bearish pattern failures followed by bullish pattern validations into an uptrend.
There are 2 classic patterns 1 is validated the other has not validated.
The cup & handle is in breakout and is approaching its target.
The pattern projects $0.2175 per pound as the target.
The bull flag is not validated.
This pattern projects $0.2200 per pound as the target.
Objectively $0.20 per pound is a psychological resistance level. The price for a pound of sugar has increased and the breakout from bullish patterns coinciding with the failure of bearish patterns reflect this. Volatility is declining and the rate of change has dropped below 0. Declining fear and a break in the trend's momentum.
Since the cup and handle has validated the bias is for long positions. Confirmation of the bull flag provides a starting point for trend continuation.
SUGARUSD EMA 10 EMA 20 Rejection Candlestick and TriangleSUGARUSD. Watch how Sugar responds to the trend line after the symmetrical triangle breakout. Entry at the intersection of trend line and EMA 10 EMA 20 with rejection candlestick wick. In the this technical chart there is a TREND, Diagonal LEVEL, and SIGNAL.
Is it a good time to sell some SugarThe buying spree at 17/05 NY open didn't make the market move very much. Instead, it creates volatility in the Sugar market. Therefore, I believe the Bulls are just not there to defend the market and a breakout should occur soon.
Trailing Stops should be used when the price hits 16.62.
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