Copper Extends Gains to Two Year Highs Prices rally around 15% this month and break another threshold, hitting the highest levels in two years. The advance brings the record peak of 2022 in the spotlight (5.041) and given the improved supply-demand dynamics, that level looks within reach.
There is optimism around increased need for the non-ferrous metal due to the green energy transition and the recovery of the chip industry, largely fueled by the AI boom. The recent data from China – one of the world’s top consumers - also helped, as GDP rose more than expected in Q1. On the supply side, key mining companies have cut their 2024 production forecasts, while Chinese smelters have reportedly agreed to lower their output.
On the other hand, China’s post-pandemic recovery is bumpy and its critical property sector still in distress. The US economy is strong, but the recent preliminary GDP offered a warning sign and sticky inflation raises the bar for looser monetary policy. On the technical front, the RSI is overbought and Copper may be ripe for a pullback. However, daily closes below the EMA200 would be required for the bullish bias to halt and that looks like a toll order, while the downside appears well-protected.
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