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Supply_and_demand

Possible opportunity soonPrice is now reacting to H4 demand that I've talked about at the beginning of the week. I'm looking to take advantage from it. - Weekly demand - H4 demand - H4 inducement - M15 ChoCh - Entry at M15 demand after confirmation I need to see price retracing before making any significant move higher, then I'll wait for my confirmation. I'll comment when/if I take the position :) There's also the possibility that price is going for the bottom of the daily structure but I already have enough confluence to take a position. Shorts are valid if price continues to move higher and above the M15 EQ but that's a different trade, that I'll share if I have time for it. DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Long
by CirculoForex
China's Economic Woes and Increased Oil Production Introduction: Recently, the global oil market has been experiencing significant fluctuations due to a combination of factors. The economic slowdown in China and the increased oil production in Iran and Venezuela have led to a drop in oil prices. As traders, it is crucial to approach this situation cautiously and explore opportunities to take advantage of this market scenario. Understanding the Factors at Play: 1. China's Economic Deterioration: China, the world's second-largest economy, has been grappling with a slowdown, which has had a direct impact on the oil demand. As the country's manufacturing and industrial sectors face challenges, the need for oil decreases, contributing to the price drop. 2. Increased Production in Iran and Venezuela: The easing of sanctions on Iran and the resurgence of oil production in Venezuela have further added to the supply glut in the market. As these countries ramp up their production, the oversupply of oil leads to a downward pressure on prices. Capitalizing on the Situation: While the oil price drop may pose risks, it also presents opportunities for traders to profit from the market. However, it is crucial to approach this situation with a cautious mindset and consider the following strategies: 1. Diversify Your Portfolio: As the oil market remains volatile, it is essential to diversify your trading portfolio to minimize potential risks. Consider exploring other sectors or commodities less affected by the oil price drop. 2. Monitor Global Economic Indicators: Keep a close eye on economic indicators, particularly those related to China's financial performance. You can make more informed trading decisions and mitigate potential losses by staying informed about the latest developments. 3. Analyze Geopolitical Factors: Stay updated on geopolitical events that may impact oil prices. Developments in Iran and Venezuela, such as political tensions or changes in production policies, can significantly impact the oil market. Remain vigilant and adapt your trading strategies accordingly. 4. Utilize Risk Management Tools: To protect your investments, implement risk management techniques such as stop-loss orders and trailing stops. These tools can help limit potential losses in case of unexpected market movements. Call-to-Action: Seize the Opportunity to Profit from Oil While the oil price drop may seem daunting, it presents a unique opportunity for traders to capitalize on the market situation. By carefully analyzing market trends, diversifying portfolios, and utilizing risk management tools, traders can navigate the oil market cautiously and potentially secure profitable outcomes. Stay informed and adapt your trading strategies to the evolving market conditions is crucial. Take advantage of this period of oil price drop by making well-informed decisions and seizing the profit potential. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Traders are advised to conduct their own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions. Note: It is essential to consult with a financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
Beginner Supply & Demand $SPY Chart Hey Guys, feel free to copy me, This chart is for beginners and new traders who're trying to understand supply and demand a little better! This shows an up-to-date picture of AMEX:SPY as of 1:00pm EST 8/24/2023. You'll notice the green and red rectangles across the screen. I color coordinated them for psychology reasons for you (personally I have all my zones white/gray). Think of the green boxes as BUYERS/SUPPORT and the red boxes as SELLERS/RESISTANCE. Supply = Resistance = Sell Demand = Support = Buy The terms aren't identical from a definition standpoint but for simplicities sake, you can use them interchangeably and associate them with each other. When drawing a demand/supply zone you want to look for LOW extremes and it strongly reverses to the upside (demand) or vice versa look for HIGH extremes and it strongly reverse to the downside (supply). There's ALOT more to it you can easily find reputable resources on youtube for free but as a quick 5 minute rundown, I hope this helps, and happy trading !!
AMEX:SPY
by EBMVI610
XAUUSD Weekly OverviewRegarding our observations, currently there are more buyers in the market These are best levels regarding Support and resistance, Channels, Weekly pivots, Buyers and Sellers focus and order_block. Both Long-term and Short-term Trends are bearish! There is not almost any reason that could change the short-term trend in near future. We expect a bearish gold for this week! 1901 is the best place to strat putting sell orders in case breaking the bearish trend line. We take the market under observation to find long opportunities. We do not suggesst any setup now!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AliSignals
AUDUSDRegarding our observations, currently there are significantly more buyers in the market. Breaking RSI-based trend line after overbought and oversold levels worked well for this instrument recently. We are in oversold again after a mighty break We might see some correction in Aussie move in this week or may be in next weeks. You can both enter after breaking 0.6450 or wait for reaching to around 0.6375. Next weeks we might join sellers again around the 0.6560! Remember that Aussie down trend might be due to bad economical data release of China as the main importer of Australia and also China's ambitions regarding Taiwan may end up in an economic conflict between the free world and China.
Long
by AliSignals
AUDCAD Weekly overviewRegarding our observations, currently there are significantly more buyers in the market. Regarding our observations, currently there are almost same number of buyers and sellers in the market Two levels of entry are possible here. Risk takers could enter 0.8653 that is a 15m order_block that accompanied by a liquidity hunt over it. Others could enter after breaking the 0.8714 or wait for a reverse after breaking. Multiplie TPs could help you save some profits.
Long
by AliSignals
2
Trading precision!Please search for my previous post, where I anticipated the last available effective demand zone and how important it was. Sure enough, price reacted on Friday and it's already taking H4 highs as mentioned. This is not a flex, as it's possible to do this very often with high precision, but an attempt to demonstrate how important it is to have a clear analysis and the ability to read price. This way, you'll always know what to do, even when you're wrong and when that happens, it doesn't feel painful because you know exactly what's going on. FULL DISCLOSURE: I did not hold the position over the weekend, I closed it on Friday and took another long yesterday based on the same idea. How you manage the position is a different topic.
Long
by CirculoForex
Natural Gas from Pipelines to PortfoliosNatural gas was once considered a byproduct of oil production. It is now becoming increasingly important as one of the cleanest burning fossil fuels and a key piece of the clean energy transition. Today, it forms the backbone of global energy production. This paper delves into the supply and demand factors affecting natural gas prices and proposes a long position in Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG1!) to harness gains from seasonal price trends with an entry of 2.484 with a target of 3.099 and a stop loss at 2.172 delivering risk/reward ratio of 2x. Natural Gas Supply and Demand Supply Largest producers and exporters of Natural Gas are US, Russia, Iran, China, Canada, Qatar, Australia, Norway, and Saudi Arabia. The standout in the list is Russia. Following the conflict in Ukraine, gas exports from Russia plummeted 58% in 2022. This led to price shocks in EU natural gas (TTF). US supply is unable to adequately bridge this deficit as transporting natural gas using ships requires converting it to Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and using special refrigerated vessels which is not economical for large quantities of natural gas. This is also why the spread between EU and US natural gas is much wider than EU and US oil. Notably, US shale reserves have a high concentration of natural gas. Along with newly developed fracking techniques, this has led to increasing gas production in the US. Moreover, natural gas is also obtained in the process of oil extraction, which means gas production is linked to oil production. This has interesting ramifications when looking at present supply. Despite low natural gas prices over the past few months, production in the US has remained high as a result of high oil production. Similarly, higher prices do not readily translate to higher production. This suggests that Natural Gas price-supply relationship is inelastic. Demand Demand for Natural Gas comes from: • Energy Production – Natural Gas is used in power plants to generate electricity. Natural Gas electricity production has been rising over the last decade as it replaces Coal. Notably, manufacturers using natural gas as an energy source can switch to other energy sources during price spike, which provides some elasticity to demand. • Commercial and Residential Heating – Natural Gas is used for heating homes in winter. This can lead to a seasonal demand during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere. • Industrial Use – Natural Gas is used as a raw material for industrial products such as plastics, ammonia, and methanol. Natural gas demand is heavily affected by weather. Unusually warm summers in the Northern Hemisphere drive higher energy usage from air conditioners while colder winters drive higher demand for heating. Inventories Gas can be injected into storage facilities and stored for later use. These inventory levels play a major role in balancing supply-demand. Summer months (April-October) are referred to as injection periods while winter months (November-March) are withdrawal periods. Inventory levels help even out the surge in winter demand. However, natural gas is much harder to store than oil as it is less dense. This means the inventory effect is not as apparent which explains the larger seasonal variation in natural gas prices as compared to oil prices. Seasonality in Natural Gas Prices Seasonal price action of Natural Gas shows two distinct price rallies. A large rally during winter in the US and EU driven by surge in supply for heating in winters, during this period, prices peak in early-December before declining. The other, smaller spike is during summers in the US and EU when demand for electricity rises, during this period, prices peak in early-June before declining. Further, prices show the highest deviation from the seasonal trend in late-September. Over the past five years, the winter rally has become wider, with prices staying elevated from August to early-December. Additionally, seasonal trend points to a price appreciation of +11% between September and December. However, investors should note that past seasonal trends are not representative of current or future market performance. Henry Hub Futures Henry Hub is the most prominent gas trading hub in the world. It is located at the intersection of major on-shore and off-shore production regions and connected by an extensive pipeline network. This is also where US natural gas exports are dispatched. CME’s benchmark Natural Gas futures (NG) deliver to Henry Hub and is the largest gas futures contract in the world. Other notable Natural Gas futures contracts are TTF (EU) and JKM (Asia). Futures from both regions are also available for trading on CME. Asset Managers are Bullish Commercial traders are heavily net short on Natural Gas futures, short positioning in July was at its highest level since 2021 but has since reduced. Overall, net short commercial positioning points to bullish sentiment. Asset managers have switched positioning in Natural Gas futures from net short to net long since May. Last week net long positioning reached its highest level since May 2022. Options markets OI points to a neutral market view on natural gas with Put/Call ratio close to 1. Options P/C has stayed close to 1 for the past 3 months. At the same time, Implied Volatility on Natural Gas options has been rising in August. A rally last week failed to break past a key support level but vols remain elevated suggesting that price may retest that level again. Henry Hub Gas Dynamics with European Gas Last week, EU Natural Gas futures (TTF1!) spiked by almost 28% due to a strike at Australia’s second largest LNG plant, still the rally soon retraced almost entirely. LNG supply disruption, especially at the key transition to the winter season can lead to volatility spikes. Though, EU gas inventories are 90% full, supply disruptions like this can still have a major effect on gas prices but especially on volatility. Over the past few years, higher flexibility and capacity in the global LNG supply chain has led to the various global natural gas benchmarks tracking each other more closely. This means that Henry Hub natural gas futures are exposed not just to US and Canada Natural Gas production but also to disruptions in global supply. However, the effect is comparatively limited due to ample supply in the US. This can be seen in the price action of Henry Hub natural gas futures which rose by 6% on the same day. Recent Trend in Natural Gas Inventories As per the EIA, Natural Gas supply fell 0.1% WoW last week. At the same time demand rose by 0.3% WoW. Note that working natural gas in underground storage has started to flatten over the past 4 weeks, rising by just 94 billion cubic feet (BCf) compared to the 5Y average increase of 140 BCf during the same period. Still, inventory levels are close to the top of their 5-year maximum, elevated by high US gas production during the summer driven by higher oil production. EIA forecasts that the depletion season will end with inventories 7% higher than their 5-year average. EIA expects production to remain flat for the remainder of the year, so watching weekly consumption reports could point to early indicators of seasonal inventory depletion. However, due to elevated inventory levels, the seasonal effect may not be as strong as prior years. In a longer-term trend, gas rigs in the US have started to decline this year after surging over the past year. This will likely lead to lower production over the next year. Trade Setup With options markets pointing bullish and seasonal trends suggesting price appreciation during this period, a long position in Natural Gas futures expiring in October (NGV) allows investors to benefit from an increase in Natural Gas prices. Each contract of CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures provide exposure to 10,000 MMBtu of Natural Gas while the October contract has maintenance margin of USD 5,070 for a long position. A USD 0.001 MMBtu change in quoted price per MMBtu leads to a PnL change of USD 10 in one Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures. Entry: 2.484 Target: 3.099 Stop Loss: 2.172 Profit at Target: USD 6,150 Loss at Stop: USD 3,120 Reward/Risk: 2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Editors' picks
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
17
XAUUSD/GOLD | Daily | Outlook Looking back on our Gold daily chart we can take note of the fact that Gold was in a relatively strong uptrend throughout the first half of this year; however in the beginning of June 2023 we saw breakout of the 5 month uptrend after which price attempted to push back up creating a new residence at 1979.70 before pushing back down. Now looking forward we can expect Gold to push further down to 1855.29 before heading up to our active sell zone between 2008.63 and 2016.55 after which we can expect Gold to start plummeting all the way down to our 1737.90 and 1726.57 area respectively.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by mosa_moshka
EURGBP proper setups! According our observations, there are just a little more sellers in the market. Remeber we could just gauge traders which are not big players in the forex market. Most main important levels are 0.8690,0.8595 and 0.8520. We use the rest of them just for riskfree and saving profits. We'll long around 0.8595 and also we aim to short the pair around 0.8690. the 0.8520 level is another good option to long in next weeks. 4h OB Ichimoku horizontal levels Buyers and Sellers levels
Long
by AliSignals
XTIUSD - BEARISH STRUCTURE - 🟢 GREENBACK Channel Update 🟢 📊 🔍 Key Zone Alert: 🎯 XTIUSD has ventured into one of those critical key zones that we've been patiently observing. This is the moment we've been waiting for, and it's time to pay attention! 🚦 Confirmation Pending: 🕒 As wise traders, we understand that patience is key. While XTIUSD has entered the important zone, we're holding tight for that all-important confirmation before we make our move. 🧐🤝 Stay green, stay informed, and let's wait for that confirmation signal! 🟢📈 📢 Feel free to discuss, analyze, and share your insights in the comments! Let's make this a collaborative and educational journey. 🤝📊
FXOPEN:XTIUSDShort
by GREENBACK_OFFICIAL