THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to tap into the lower red box region, give the long trade up into the red box resistance which was active and then give us the opportunity to short the market sticking to our bias and our bias target levels. Although we missed the precise entry by 30pips from the highs, we managed to get in and complete not only the bias target levels, KOG’s bias of the day target levels, Excalibur target algo levels and LiTE EA targets hitting 100% on those for the week.
A fantastic week on markets on just on Gold but on the other pairs we trade and analyse as well. Well done to our traders and team.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
After the move we witnessed last week we would expect there to be some retracement on the horizon, however, it all depends on this lower level of 2850-47 holding price up in the early sessions. If we do see a clean set up here an opportunity to take that potential long into the level above 2865-70 should be available. It these level above that are concerning, they need to break above for us to confirm this as a short term low, however, unless broken 2875-80 and above that 2895-2900 should be decent target levels for the longs and also pivotal points to watch for reversal to continue the move downside.
On the flip, we do have a level below sitting at 2805-10, which is also a bearish below level. If we continue this move downside from the opening, we’ll look to continue with the move downside on the daily red boxes and then look for an opportunity to take a swing long from lower down.
Key levels this week:
Resistance – 2890 / 2904
Support – 2850 / 2830 / 2810
Potential range – 2810 – 2880
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 2847 with targets above 2865, 2871, 2876, 2880 and above that 2904
Bearish below 2847 with targets below 2840, 2835, 2830 and below that 2810
RED BOXES:
Break above 2860 for 2865, 2872, 2874, 2885 and 2900 in extension of the move
Break below 2847 for 2840, 2836, 2831, 2823 and 2810 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Supply and Demand
How to Find Best Supply and Demand Zones/Areas in Forex & Gold
In this article, I will show you the strongest supply and demand zones.
These zones are called confluence zones.
I will teach you to identify these areas properly and explain how to apply it in Forex and Gold trading.
Let's start with a short but important theory.
In technical analysis, there are 2 types of supports and resistances.
Horizontal structures are supports and resistance that are based on horizontal key levels.
Vertical structures are supports and resistance that are based on trend lines.
A confluence supply or demand zone, will be the area of the intersection between a horizontal and vertical structures.
Look at GBPJPY pair. I underlined a significant horizontal support and a rising trend line - a vertical support.
We see a clear crossing of both structures.
The trend line and a horizontal support will compose a narrow, contracting area. It will be a confluence demand zone.
Within, with a high probability, a high volume of buying orders will concentrate, and a strong bullish movement will initiate after its test.
Above is one more example of a powerful demand zone.
It was spotted on a Gold chart.
Now let's discuss the supply zone.
There are 2 strong structures on GBPNZD: a vertical resistance - a falling trend line and a horizontal resistance.
These 2 resistances will constitute a confluence supply zone.
That is a powerful resistance cluster that will concentrate the selling orders. Chances will be high to see a strong bearish movement from that.
There is a strong supply zone on CHFJPY that is based on the intersection of a wide horizontal resistance and a falling trend line.
Supply and demand zones that we discussed are very significant. Very often, strong bullish and bearish waves will initiate from these clusters.
Your ability to recognize these zones will help you to make accurate predictions and identify a safe point to open a trading position from
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US DOLLAR: Sell Opportunity after support breakTVC:DXY has broken below a key support zone, indicating a potential shift in momentum. The price is now retesting this zone, which previously acted as support and could serve as resistance, aligning with a potential bearish continuation.
If sellers confirm resistance at this level, the price is likely to decline further toward the 105.800 target , which aligns with a major support level. Conversely, a breakout above the zone could signal further upside.
Before considering short positions, look for bearish confirmation signals such as bearish engulfing candles, strong wicks rejecting the resistance zone, or increased selling volume.
Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
Best of luck!
GOLD - Bearish Continuation Toward 2,840OANDA:XAUUSD is currently testing a key resistance zone within a well-defined descending channel, suggesting the potential for a bearish continuation. If price action confirms rejection at this level, we could see a move lower toward 2,840, which aligns with the channel’s midline. However, a breakout above this resistance could invalidate the bearish outlook and signal a shift in momentum.
This setup reflects the potential for a continuation of the prevailing downtrend. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! 📉🔥
EURUSD: Bearish Outlook For Next Week Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
With the Friday's turmoil in the White House,
EURUSD went down sharply.
The price broke and closed below a significant daily support.
It is a strong event that increases the probabilities that the market
will continue going lower.
Next support will be 1.032
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Trump New Update (2H)It seems that the TRUMP symbol is forming a Diametric pattern and is currently aiming to complete wave F.
As long as the green zone holds, the price can move toward the red box.
A 4-hour candle close below the invalidation level would invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
ETH NEW ANALYSIS (1D)A more comprehensive analysis for Ethereum is as follows:
It seems that wave E of our Diametric is nearing completion. For wave F, Ethereum should experience upward retracements and spend some time consolidating.
The best zone for the completion of wave E is marked on the chart as the upper green box.
The optimal rejection area for price to move downward and complete wave F is marked by the red circle. Now, we wait to see whether the price reaches this zone for wave F or not.
Wave G may have two potential targets: either the upper or lower green box at the bottom of the chart.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Ethereum’s Dip: A Golden Buying Opportunity?Ethereum has been a disappointment for traders.
Many were expecting a new all-time high, but so far, Ethereum has failed to deliver.
However, for speculators like me, this type of market movement presents an ideal trading opportunity.
Recently, ETH reached a key confluence support zone around the psychologically significant $2,000 level, reinforced by multiple technical factors. This setup suggests a strong potential for a reversal.
What’s Next?
✅ The $2,000 support zone remains critical, and I expect it to hold, leading to an upside move.
✅ While not aiming for extreme highs, I’m looking to buy dips near $2,200 with a target around $2,800.
BTCUSDT - Be prepared for a good move. But how far?After my recent analysis in this link () , which successfully reached its target, I am here with another analysis of Bitcoin.
The price returned from that area with a relatively good and immediate reaction after filling the CME gap, which is a positive sign for Bitcoin, but we need to pay more attention to the following points:
- If the price breaks above $87078, even with a shadow, it can move up to $92,000 after a pullback and buyers' support.
- Really, here we should wait for the price to react to this important area and then update the analysis when we see the signs.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis
Good luck, friends
EURUSD Approaching Key Demand Zone – Potential Rebound?OANDA:EURUSD is approaching a key demand zone marked by previous price reactions. This area has historically acted as strong support, leading to bullish moves in the past. The current structure suggests that buyers may step in if the price confirms a rejection from this zone.
If we see bullish confirmation, such as a strong rejection or a bullish engulfing candle, the market could push higher toward the 1.04020 level. However, a break below this demand zone would invalidate the bullish bias and could lead to further declines.
This setup reflects the potential for a rebound after an impulsive move, supported by past price behavior and market structure.
If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Weekly Market Forecast Mar 3-7: Stock Indices, Gold, Oil, moreThis is a FUTURES market outlook for the week of Mar 3-7th.
In this video, we will analyze the following futures markets:
ES | S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC | Gold
SIL | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The indices took a bearish turn at the end of last week. Trump announcements, tariffs, Ukraine and Russia injected uncertainty into the markets, and investors moved money into safe havens.
Patience is required to trade in this environment. Wait until there are clear signs of shifts in the market before deciding on a bias. Setup confirmations are always the best course of action.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
You won’t believe how bearish ROSE is! (1W)A lot of data is now available on the rising pattern of ROSE. It appears that a large triangle has been completed, which was our wave B.
With the break of the B-D trendline, the triangle is now finished, and we are currently in wave C. Wave C is bearish and should take more time than the large wave A.
ROSE is expected to remain bearish for the next few months, but keep in mind that before the drop, it may pull back to the multi-week supply zone.
Let’s see how it plays out.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
JASMYUSDTmy entry on this trade idea is taken from a point of interest below an inducement (X).. I extended my stoploss area to cover for the whole swing as price can target the liquidity there before going as I anticipate.. just a trade idea, not financial advise
Entry; $0.01734
Take Profit; $0.01997
Stop Loss; $0.01651
Massive Macro Retest: Expecting $1 on ADA, Should Be Bottoming SCRYPTOCAP:ADA has an extremely clean chart, and I think there's a good chance of a move from here after filling the wick and retesting the macro SR flip level.
The current downtrend will expire on March 10th (one of the fastest to expire), so we expect to be a first mover once we see a bounce.
I've bought some here and will continue to add below 60c.
I'm targeting close to $1 and will re-evaluate if it shows greater strength. $CARDANO BINANCE:ADAUSDT
Price is reaching support levels - Bulls are about to take over.Price is mainly driven by wedges, We have a falling wedge on the weekly chart which hasn't been broken yet and we also seem to have an ascending wedge on the daily chart, which price has broken out of without forming a proper correction, And we also have an ascending wedge on the hourly time frames initiating a correction towards the broken daily wedge.
I am expecting a rejection when price reaches current support levels, which could push the price higher for a proper correction before falling long term.
BTC New Update (4H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
As you can see in this analysis, the demand zone from the previous analysis was slightly hunted, but it is still valid and considered a demand zone.
We have reduced the timeframe slightly (4-hour).
Our expectation for price action is to see a slight bounce upward in this zone with some time consolidation.
After consuming the buy orders in this area and spending some time, Bitcoin may even move toward lower zones.
Let’s see what happens.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
EURUSD 3-7 Mar 2025 W10 - Weekly Analysis- EU Rate - US NFP WeekThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 3-7 Mar 2025 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
The EUR/USD pair faces a slightly bearish bias this week, driven by key economic events, geopolitical risks, and trade uncertainties.
Key Events to Watch:
🔹 ECB Interest Rate Decision (March 6) – Markets expect a 25 bps rate cut to 2.50%. A dovish ECB could pressure the euro, while any hints of a pause may provide support.
🔹 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (March 7) – Forecast at +133K jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.0%. Weak data could weigh on the USD, while stronger payrolls and wage growth may boost it.
🔹 Trump’s Tariffs & Trade War Risks – New U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China take effect March 4, with potential auto tariffs on Europe looming. These policies favor the dollar by driving risk-off sentiment.
🔹 Geopolitical Tensions – U.S.-Ukraine relations deteriorated after a public Oval Office clash between Trump and Zelenskiy. Further instability could impact investor confidence and increase safe-haven demand for the USD.
Trading Strategy:
✅ Bearish Scenario: A dovish ECB, strong U.S. NFP, and escalating trade risks could push EUR/USD down.
✅ Bullish Scenario: If the ECB signals a rate-cut pause and U.S. jobs data disappoint, EUR/USD may test 1.055–1.06 .
Overall, the fundamental backdrop leans in favor of the USD, but volatility is expected, especially around the ECB and NFP releases. Traders should stay alert to geopolitical developments and tariff announcements that may shift sentiment.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish (Pullback Phase)
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous weeks analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.
🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after volatile week.
🔹With the previous week Bearish close, weekly is consolidating between 1.05xx and 1.02xx
🔹Still the recent Bullish Fractal and Demand holding but failed to break the high (1.0533) so there is a probability to target the low 1.0285/10 and could extend to continue the Bearish INT Structure with iBOS.
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.
🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low.
🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH.
🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase.
🔹With the Weekly is consolidating the Daily consolidation range showing that we are failing to continue Bullish and with the recent Bearish CHoCH we are back to the Bearish INT Structure continuation and we may target the Weak INT Low (At least 1.0285).
🔹Price could pullback to the recent Daily Supply before continuing down.
🔹Expectation is set to Bearish with cautious of the Liq. built above 1.05333 and the range we are in.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Adjusted my INT structure to align with the previous Bullish move)
🔹Complex Swing INT Structure
2️⃣
🔹As the Swing is Bullish, expectations were set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High and create a Bullish BOS after the Deep Pullback to the Swing Demand.
🔹During the Swing Bullish Continuation after the Deep Pullback, INT Structure kept holding Bullish to fulfill the Bullish continuation phase.
🔹With price reaching the Swing Extreme Premium zone and the expectation of breaking the Weak Swing High, price failed 2 times and with the 3rd attempt it created a Bearish iBOS. This indicated that the Swing INT structure is Complex and the Daily/Weekly TFs are still in play.
3️⃣
🔹After the Bearish iBOS, we expect PB, there is no clear POI for price to initiate PB except the Liq. at 1.03730 which was swept on Friday and 1.03173 before mitigating the last clear 4H Demand.
🔹With the recent Bearish iBOS, the PB could start at anytime. The Liq. swept from 1.0373 could provide that PB otherwise we will continue Bearish till the clear 4H Demand (Which I doubt that it could provide the continuation) but with LTF shifting Bullish, we can follow that.
Economic Events for the Week