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Supply and Demand

ADA 1-Year EMA Reclaim and Reversal (1D)After a double bottom at ~$0.50, BINANCE:ADAUSDT reclaimed the 1-year EMA (red) with a ~+9% large bodied daily candle, potentially shifting back to a bullish bias. Key Levels to Watch • $0.50-$0.58: Current support, a break below it would invalidate any bullish setup. • $0.73-$0.77: Current resistance, 0.236 fib extension, HVN, and key S/R in place since February 2022. This is the most crucial level that the bulls need to reclaim. • $1.10-$1.30: Main supply zone, with significant weekly and daily sell order blocks, plus 0.618 fib extension. A daily close above above $0.77 would offer a good chance at retesting 2024's highs.
Long
by AliferCrypto
Panic Selling LINK? Here’s Your Master PlanBuckle up! LINK has been riding a relentless bearish trend for 113 days, ever since it kissed its peak of $30.94 back in December 2024. With economic uncertainty casting a shadow over the markets and fear gripping investors, the big questions loom: Is this the dip to buy while others panic-sell? Or is it wiser to sit on the sidelines? Let’s slice through the noise, dissect LINK’s chart like a seasoned pro, and uncover the setups that could turn this chaos into opportunity. Let’s dive in! The Big Picture: LINK’s Bearish Blueprint LINK is currently trading at $13, a far cry from its yearly open of $20. April has kicked off, and LINK has already surrendered the monthly open at $13.5, a critical level now acting as a brick wall overhead. Zooming out, the trend is unmistakably bearish: lower highs and lower lows dominate the chart. Adding fuel to the fire, LINK is languishing below the Point of Control (POC) at $14.32, derived from a 1.5-year trading range. This is a market screaming caution for bulls and whispering opportunity for bears, at least for now. But charts don’t lie, and they’re packed with clues. Let’s map out the key levels, pinpoint trade setups, and arm ourselves with a plan that’d make even the most seasoned traders nod in approval. Resistance Zones: Where Bears Sharpen Their Claws 1.) Resistance - The Golden Pocket ($13.6 - $13.7) Using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest downward wave, the golden pocket (0.618 - 0.65 Fib) aligns beautifully with the monthly open at $13.5. Oh wait there’s more, this zone overlaps with a Fair Value Gap (FVG), making it a magnet for price action. Trade Setup (Short): Entry: ~$13.5 (if price tests and rejects this zone). Stop Loss (SL): Above the recent swing high at $14.4. Take Profit (TP): First target at $11.85 (swing low), with a stretch goal at $11. Risk-to-Reward (R:R): A solid 2:1. The Play: If LINK crawls up to this resistance and gets smacked down, bears can pounce. Watch for rejection candles (e.g., shooting star, bearish engulfing) to confirm the move. 2. Key Resistance - Cloud Edge & VWAP ($15.74 - $16.5) The Cloud edge of my indicator sits at $15.74, while the anchored VWAP (from the $26.4 high) hovers at $16.5. A break above $16.5 would flip the script, snapping the bearish structure and signaling a potential trend reversal. Bullish Scenario: If bulls reclaim $16.5 as support, it’s a green light for a long trade. Until then, this is a fortress for bears to defend. The Play: No bullish setups here yet. Support Zones: Where Bulls Build Their Base 1.) Support - Swing Low ($11.85) This is the first line in the sand for bulls. A potential Swing Failure Pattern (SFP), where price dips below $11.85, sweeps liquidity, and reverses—could spark a long trade. The Play: Watch for a bullish reversal candle or volume spike here. 2.) Major Support Cluster - The Golden Zone ($10 - $11.85) This is where the chart sings a symphony of confluence: Swing Low: $11.85. POC: $11.33 (1.5-year trading range). Monthly Level: $11.02. Fib Retracement: 0.886 at $10.69 and 0.786 (log scale) at $10.77. Psychological Level: $10. Trade Setup (Long): Entry: Dollar-Cost Average (DCA) between $11.85 and $10. Stop Loss (SL): Below $10 Take Profit (TP): First target: $13.5 (monthly open), stretch goal: $20 (yearly open). Risk-to-Reward (R:R): A monstrous 6:1 or better, depending on your average entry. This is the kind of trade we are looking for! The Play: Patience is key. Wait for confirmation—think bullish engulfing candles, a surge in volume, or positive order-flow momentum. This isn’t a “hope and pray” trade; it’s a calculated ambush on the bears. Market Structure: Bears Rule, But Bulls Lurk Right now, LINK’s chart is a bear’s playground—lower highs, lower lows, and no bullish momentum to speak of. The $16.5 VWAP is the line in the sand for a trend shift, but until then, short trades take priority. That said, the $10 - $11.85 support zone is a coiled spring for bulls. If fear drives LINK into this range, it’s time to load the boat with longs—provided confirmation aligns. Your Trading Edge LINK’s 113-day bearish descent is a wild ride, but it’s not random chaos—it’s a roadmap. Bears can feast on rejections at $13.5 - $13.7 with a tidy 2:1 R:R short. Bulls, meanwhile, should stalk the $10 - $11.85 zone for a high-probability long with a 6:1+ R:R payoff. Whether you’re scalping the dips or swinging for the fences, these levels give you the edge to trade with confidence. So, what’s it gonna be? Short the resistance and ride the wave down? Or stack bids at support and catch the reversal of a lifetime? The chart’s laid bare—now it’s your move. Drop your thoughts below, and let’s conquer this market together! If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know, I’m here to break down the charts you want to see. Happy trading =)
Short
by SiDec
22
Long trade www.tradingview.com 15min TF overview Trade Overview: AUDUSD Long Position Entry Price: 0.63525 Profit Target: 0.63907 (+0.60%) Stop Loss: 0.63439 (–0.14%) Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.44 🕕 Entry Time: 6:18 PM (NY Time) 📅 Date: Thursday, 17th April 2025 🌎 Session: New York PM 🧭 Structure: 1-Hour TF ⏱ Entry: 5-Minute TF Trade Reasoning HTF Context (1h Structure): AUDUSD maintained a bullish 1-hour market structure, with consistently higher lows and a clean internal BOS (Break of Structure). Price had retraced into a previously defined demand zone, setting the stage for a continuation move.
Long
by davidjulien369
LINK’s Swing Setup Could Push Past $15LINK bounced right off the $10 mark, charging upward toward the monthly open before slamming into resistance around $13.25. But now what? Let’s break it down — because the next high-probability setup is taking shape, and it’s one you don’t want to miss. The Current Situation: LINK is: Below the Point of Control (POC) of this trading range (~$11.35). Below the monthly open at $13.5. Still in a bearish trend on the 4H, showing lower highs. Facing decent rejection from the monthly level. We’re currently trading below the weekly open at $12.62, now sitting right on the Value Area Low (VAL) at $12.36. That puts us in a precarious spot and sets the stage for the next move. Bearish, bearish, bearish. When bullish sir? Staying patient and waiting for a real shift in market structure is key. The Bearish Play: Liquidity Grab Incoming? There’s a liquidity pocket waiting below at $11.68, the most recent swing low. If LINK loses VAL and bearish pressure kicks in, this becomes the next logical target. But here's where things get interesting... The Bullish Setup: Confluence-Backed Long Opportunity This isn’t just any random support zone — there’s a perfect confluence stack forming: Swing low: $11.68 Daily support level: $11.45 Weekly support level: $11.28 POC of trading range: ~$11.35 0.618 Fibonacci retracement lands in this zone as well That’s four layers of support in one tight cluster. This is where we want to scale into longs. The Play: Scaling In Entry: Ladder long positions from $11.68 down to the 0.786 fib (near $11.2) Stop Loss: Below $10.35 for invalidation Target: 0.786 fib retracement of the previous downward wave at ~$14.5 R:R: Approx. 3:1, with a potential +30% gain The trend remains bearish but the chart is setting up a prime reversal zone. Patience is key here. 🔔 Set alerts. Watch for volume spikes. Look for SFPs or bullish engulfing candles etc. The next move on LINK could offer one of the best swing setups especially since this trade could extend past the $15 mark, putting you ahead of the curve. 💬 Found this helpful? Drop a like and comment below. Want TA on another coin? Let me know and I’ll break it down for you. Happy trading everyone! 💪

Long
by SiDec
5
GOLD Trending Higher - Can buyers push toward 3,500$?OANDA:XAUUSD is trading within a clear ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. The recent bullish momentum indicates that buyers are in control, suggesting there's chances for potential continuation on the upside. The price has recently broken above a key resistance zone and may come back for a retest. If this level holds as support, it would reinforce the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of a move toward the 3,500 target , which aligns with the channel’s upper boundary. As long as the price remains above this support zone, the bullish outlook stays intact. However, a failure to hold above this level could invalidate the bullish scenario and increase the likelihood of a pullback toward the channel’s lower boundary. The recent surge in gold prices is driven by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar. Gold reached a record high of $3,390 per ounce, fueled by concerns over global economic stability and increased demand for safe-haven assets. Analysts have raised their three-month gold forecast, due to ongoing market uncertainties.​ Despite the upward momentum, I think still gold may be overbought in the near term, indicating potential for a short-term correction . Nevertheless, the overall bullish trend remains strong, supported by geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and investor demand for strong assets.​
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TrendDiva
84
BTC Analysis - Bullish BiasMy current outlook on Bitcoin remains bullish, anticipating a move towards higher price levels. I am specifically watching for the potential formation of a Fair Value Gap (FVG). Should an FVG form, I will be looking for price to potentially retrace and touch this gap. Upon a successful interaction with the FVG, my expectation is for price to then continue its ascent towards the higher levels I have marked on my chart. I am focusing on identifying confirmed long opportunities based on this potential FVG setup and retest. Trade safe!
Long
by InnerCircleAnalysis
Cotton Market Correction: Trading the Global Stocks IncreaseThe global cotton market is signaling a potential correction in April 2025, as outlined in the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on April 10. The report projects a 520,000-bale increase in global ending stocks to 78.86 million bales, driven by lower consumption in key markets like China and Indonesia. In the US, cotton exports are down 100,000 bales to 10.9 million, with the season-average price holding steady at 63 cents per pound. These dynamics suggest bearish pressure on cotton futures, offering traders a chance to capitalize on short-term price movements. This article analyzes the cotton market’s current signals, updated with the latest price action, and provides actionable trading strategies to navigate this correction. Cotton Market Dynamics: Rising Stocks, Falling Demand The WASDE report highlights a significant shift in the global cotton market for the 2024/25 season. World ending stocks are raised by 520,000 bales to 78.86 million 480-lb. bales, primarily due to reduced consumption in China and Indonesia, where textile mill use is down 520,000 bales to 116.02 million bales. This decline in demand is partially offset by an increase in Turkey (up 100,000 bales), but overall, global trade is down, with exports reduced by 380,000 bales to 42.33 million bales. Key exporters like Australia, Brazil, the US, and Cote d’Ivoire see lower shipments, with the US specifically reporting a 100,000-bale drop in exports to 10.9 million bales, reflecting weaker global demand. In the US, the cotton balance sheet shows ending stocks rising to 5.0 million bales (up 100,000 bales), as the export reduction directly impacts inventory levels. Despite this supply buildup, the season-average upland farm price remains unchanged at 63 cents per pound, indicating a market that has yet to fully price in the increased stocks. Production remains steady at 14.41 million bales, but the combination of higher stocks and lower exports introduces bearish pressure on prices, setting the stage for a potential correction in cotton futures. Global Context: Supply and Trade Adjustments Globally, the cotton market is also adjusting to supply-side changes. Production is down 69,000 bales to 120.89 million bales, with reductions in Argentina (down 50,000 bales) and Cote d’Ivoire (down 30,000 bales) more than offsetting an increase in China (up 20,000 bales). Imports are lower, with China and Indonesia reducing purchases by a combined 300,000 bales, while Turkey’s imports rise by 100,000 bales. The increase in global ending stocks to 78.86 million bales, with gains in China, Australia, Brazil, Egypt, and the US, further reinforces the bearish outlook, as supply outpaces demand in key markets. This global stock buildup, combined with the US export decline to 10.9 million bales, suggests that cotton prices may face downward pressure in the near term. However, the steady US price at 63 cents per pound provides a potential support level, and any easing of trade tensions—such as the US-China trade war impacting broader commodity markets—could spark a reversal if demand recovers. Trading Signals and Strategies The cotton market’s current dynamics, with global ending stocks rising to 78.86 million bales and US exports falling to 10.9 million bales, continue to signal bearish pressure, but recent price action provides fresh insights for futures traders. As of April 23, 2025, Intercontinental Exchange Cotton Futures ( ICEUS:CT1! ) are trading at 66.86 cents per pound on a 30-minute chart, having recently peaked at 67.10 cents and showing a sharp decline from that level. The WASDE’s season-average price of 63 cents per pound remains a key support level, while technical indicators like the MACD, which shows a recent bearish crossover with the MACD line at 0.11 and the signal line at 0.19, reinforce the downward momentum. A bearish strategy remains the primary setup given the market’s fundamentals and recent price action. The 30-minute chart indicates that CT futures have tested resistance near 67.10 cents per pound, but the bearish MACD crossover and a decline to 66.86 cents suggest that momentum is shifting downward. A break below the recent support of 66 cents—visible on the chart as a level where prices briefly consolidated—could signal a move to 64 cents, offering a 4-5% downside in the short term. For a reversal play, traders can monitor for a potential bullish setup if trade tensions ease, boosting demand in China and Indonesia, where consumption is down 520,000 bales. If CT futures hold above 66 cents and reclaim the recent high of 67.10 cents with strong volume and a MACD crossover above the signal line, prices could target the next resistance at 68 cents, a 2-3% gain. This setup would require a shift in momentum, potentially driven by export demand recovery or supply disruptions in key producers like Brazil or Australia. A range-bound strategy offers a more conservative approach, as the steady WASDE price of 63 cents per pound and recent price action suggest CT futures may oscillate between 64 and 67 cents in the near term. Traders can buy near 64.5 cents with a stop-loss below 64 cents and sell near 66.5 cents with a take-profit at 67 cents, capitalizing on short-term fluctuations while monitoring the WASDE’s reliability data, which shows a 90% confidence interval of ±7.1% for world ending stocks forecasts, indicating potential volatility if future reports adjust stock estimates significantly. Risks to Watch Trading cotton futures involves risks, particularly given the supply-driven bearish outlook. The global stock increase to 78.86 million bales could lead to further price weakness if demand in China and Indonesia doesn’t recover, especially with US exports down to 10.9 million bales. The WASDE’s historical data indicates a 4.2% root mean square error for world cotton export forecasts, with differences ranging up to 4.2 million bales, suggesting potential volatility in future reports. Additionally, an unexpected easing of the US-China trade war could boost demand, reversing the bearish trend, while weather disruptions in key producers like Brazil or Australia could tighten supply and support prices. Summing it all up, The cotton market in April, as detailed in the WASDE report and updated with recent price action, signals an ongoing correction with global ending stocks rising to 78.86 million bales and US exports falling to 10.9 million bales. With CT futures at 66.86 cents per pound, a bearish setup targets a move to 64 cents for a 4-5% downside, though a reversal to 68 cents or a range-bound trade between 64 and 67 cents offers alternative strategies. By using technical indicators like MACD and monitoring for RSI shifts, traders can navigate this market’s volatility and capitalize on short-term price movements, while staying alert for shifts in global demand and supply dynamics in the weeks, lying ahead.
SKILLING:COTTON
by juliakhandoshko
DOLLAR I Monday CLS I KL - HTF FVG / OB I Continuation setupHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model. If you haven't followed me yet, start now. My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution. 🧩 What is CLS? CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets. ✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits. 🛡️ Models 1 and 2: From my posts, you can learn two core execution models. They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained. 📍 Model 1 is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range. 📍 Model 2 occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
 ⚔️ Listen Carefully: Analysis is not trading. Right now, this platform is full of gurus" trying to sell you dreams based on analysis with arrows while they don't even have the skill to trade themselves. If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
TVC:DXYShort
by David_Perk
9
The Market Wins... For now... Let's talk CryptoIt seems that when I said in my previous videos "no matter what we want, Bitcoin can technically shoot up to a million tomorrow because that's just crypto", Crypto heard and said, "yeah, we'll do that". Kidding, we're not at a million nor will we be today or tomorrow. And at some point it will reverse because we need more demand for a sustainable push to new ATH's (peep 2021-2023 as I mention in this video). But at what point? Not for us to say until we start to see signs of tapering. Once we broke out and consolidated out of our strong selling channel, we were given the heads up to be careful with our shorts - and with a certain amount of levels broken (i.e. FWB:88K ) I closed most of my short positions. But I do still have a HTF target at lower levels. most importantly, we don't dictate to the market when it goes where. It decides on it's own and we wait for signals utilizing the algorithms and volume to guide us. This is a long video because I don't have the "answers" as to why BTC is up 10%! But I still urge everyone to stay patient and cautious, either long or short, because in all markets there is clearly something being prepared for. Happy Trading :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ReigningTrades
1
BITCOIN Bulls in Control - Next Stop: $94,000?COINBASE:BTCUSD is trading within an ascending channel, signaling bullish momentum. The price has consistently respected the channel boundaries, forming higher highs and higher lows, which aligns with the continuation of the uptrend. After consolidating within a tight range for several days, COINBASE:BTCUSD has broken out with strong momentum. The price may now be pulling back for a retest of the previous resistance zone. If buyers step in and confirm this area as support, a move toward the channel’s upper boundary around $94,000 becomes likely. Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation signals, such as bullish engulfing candles, strong rejection wicks from the support zone, or increased buying volume, before considering long positions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DanieIM
134
ETH Bullish Navarro 200 Harmonic Pattern + Key Levels / TargetsHarmonic Structure: Navarro 200 Ethereum's weekly chart showcases a fully formed Navarro 200 pattern, identified by: • A deep B-to-D leg extension (~1.364) — beyond typical harmonic norms, validating the Navarro classification. • Precise internal Fibonacci alignments: - XA retracement to B = ~0.771 - BC extension to D = ~1.364 • Completion of point D in a historical demand area around $1500, indicating a potential reversal zone (PRZ). This harmonic pattern suggests a bullish reversal scenario, contingent on price holding above the $1500 level. Demand Zone: $1500–$1600 This green box zone represents a major accumulation range from early 2023: • High volume support — confirmed by prior consolidations. • On-chain data supports this as a major ETH acquisition zone (1.5M+ ETH bought). • Current bounce from this area following a liquidity sweep reaffirms it as a strong demand base. Failure to hold this zone could invalidate the bullish harmonic setup. Target Zones (Based on Navarro 200 Mechanics) • T1: $2100–$2200 - Historically significant support-turned-resistance. - Converges with structural highs and prior breakdown area from mid-2024. - First logical profit-taking or reaction point following a D-point reversal. • Mid-Zone: ~$2800 Though not labeled as a target, this is a key supply region to monitor: - Past consolidations and price rejection. - Mid-range of the overall pattern. - Also aligns with prior bullish support in 2024 that flipped to resistance. • T2: $4000–$4100 - Strong weekly supply zone marked in red. - Aligns with point C of the pattern. - Also a psychological barrier near the previous all-time high area ($4,868). - Likely to see heavy resistance if price rallies that far. Risks to Watch • Failure to hold the $1500–$1600 demand zone could send ETH into deeper retracement.
Long
by AliferCrypto
BITCOIN New Update (4H)Before anything else, we shouldn't forget that through multiple analyses shared from the bottom on higher timeframes, we knew Bitcoin was highly bullish. The red zone from the previous analysis has been engulfed and cleared | a lot of sell orders have been absorbed, leading to a pumpy move. It’s better to wait for a pullback now. The price has now reached a resistance zone, where a large number of sell orders have been absorbed, leading to a pumpy move. Also, the diametric pattern is still visible, and after the completion of wave F | which has just occurred | a reversal is expected for wave G. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
MKR Falling Wedge Breakout + Target & Key LevelsBINANCE:MKRUSDT just broke out of a 1-year long falling wedge, see 1D zoom below. Further confirmation would be either: • Daily retest of the resistance as support • Weekly close above the resistance Key Levels to Watch Aside from the demand zone, these are all potential resistances and good candidates for partial TPs. • $520-$720: Key demand zone. A break below it would invalidate any bullish setup. • $1600-$1800: Daily sell order block, and the first resistance to overcome. • ~$2000: 0.382 fib of the move down, and HVN*. • $2300-$2400: 0.5 fib of the move down, daily sell order block and previous support • ~$2800: 0.618 fib of the move down, and HVN*. • $3800-$4000: Daily sell order block, and 2024 high. The falling wedge measured target is $3700 . * HVN = High Volume Node
Long
by AliferCrypto