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Supply and Demand

Oil Prices Up as Trump Delays EU Tariffs (Temporary Relief?) The global oil market, a sensitive barometer of economic health and geopolitical stability, registered a slight uptick in prices following the news that the Trump administration would extend the deadline for imposing new tariffs on a range of European Union goods. This minor rally, however, comes against a backdrop of a broader downtrend that has characterized the oil markets since mid-January. The persistent downward pressure has been largely attributed to the chilling effect of existing and threatened tariffs, not just between the US and the EU, but on a global scale, which have cast a long shadow over the outlook for global energy demand. To understand the significance of this deadline extension and its nuanced impact on oil prices, it's crucial to first appreciate the environment in which it occurred. For several months, the dominant narrative surrounding oil has been one of demand-side anxiety. President Trump's "America First" trade policy, which has seen the imposition of sweeping tariffs on goods from various countries, most notably China, and the persistent threat of more to come against allies like the European Union, has injected a significant dose of uncertainty into the global economic system. Tariffs, at their core, are taxes on imported goods. Their imposition typically leads to a cascade of negative economic consequences. Businesses that rely on imported components face higher input costs, which can either be absorbed, thereby reducing profit margins, or passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Higher consumer prices can dampen spending, a key driver of economic growth. Furthermore, the uncertainty created by an unpredictable trade policy environment often leads businesses to postpone investment decisions and hiring, further stagnating economic activity. This economic slowdown, or even the fear of it, directly translates into weaker demand for oil. Manufacturing activity, a significant consumer of energy, tends to decline. Global shipping and freight, which rely heavily on bunker fuel and diesel, slow down as trade volumes shrink. Consumer demand for gasoline and jet fuel can also wane if economic hardship leads to reduced travel and leisure activities. The retaliatory measures often taken by targeted nations – imposing their own tariffs on US goods – only serve to exacerbate this negative feedback loop, creating a tit-for-tat escalation that further erodes business confidence and global trade flows. It is this overarching concern about a tariff-induced global economic slowdown that has been weighing heavily on oil prices since the middle of January. Market participants, from large institutional investors to commodity traders, have been pricing in the potential for significantly reduced oil consumption in the months and years ahead if these trade disputes were to escalate or become entrenched. Every new tariff announcement or threat has typically sent ripples of concern through the market, often pushing oil prices lower. Against this gloomy backdrop, the news of an extension to the tariff deadline on EU goods, while not a resolution, acts as a momentary pause button on further immediate escalation. It offers a temporary reprieve, a brief window where the worst-case scenario of new, damaging tariffs being instantly applied is averted. This is likely why oil prices "edged higher." The market's reaction can be interpreted in several ways. Firstly, it reflects a slight easing of immediate downside risk to the European economy. The EU is a massive economic bloc and a significant consumer of oil. The imposition of new US tariffs on key European goods, such as automobiles or luxury products, would undoubtedly have a detrimental impact on European industries, potentially tipping already fragile economies closer to recession. An extension of the deadline pushes this immediate threat further down the road, offering a sliver of hope that a negotiated solution might yet be found, or at least that the economic pain is deferred. This deferral, however slight, can lead to a marginal upward revision of short-term oil demand expectations from the region. Secondly, the extension can be seen as a signal, however faint, that dialogue and negotiation are still possible. In the fraught world of international trade diplomacy, any indication that parties are willing to continue talking rather than immediately resorting to punitive measures can be interpreted positively by markets. It reduces, fractionally, the "uncertainty premium" that has been built into asset prices, including oil. However, it is crucial to temper any optimism. The fact that oil only "edged higher" rather than surged indicates the market's deep-seated caution. An extension is not a cancellation. The underlying threat of tariffs remains very much on the table. The fundamental disagreements that led to the tariff threats in the first place have not been resolved. Therefore, while the immediate pressure point has been alleviated, the chronic condition of trade uncertainty persists. The oil market is acutely aware that this extension could simply be a tactical move, buying time for political reasons without altering the fundamental trajectory of trade policy. If, at the end of the extended period, no agreement is reached and tariffs are indeed imposed, the negative impact on oil demand expectations would likely resurface with renewed force. The market is therefore likely to adopt a "wait and see" approach, with traders hesitant to make significant bullish bets based solely on a deadline postponement. Furthermore, the US-EU trade dynamic is just one piece of a larger global puzzle. The ongoing trade tensions with China, for instance, continue to be a major drag on global growth projections and, by extension, oil demand. Progress, or lack thereof, on that front often has a more substantial impact on oil prices than developments in the US-EU relationship, given the sheer scale of US-China trade and China's role as the world's largest oil importer. The slight rise in oil prices also needs to be seen in the context of other market-moving factors. Supply-side dynamics, such as OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East, and fluctuations in US shale output, constantly interact with demand-side sentiment. A deadline extension on EU tariffs might provide a small boost, but it can be easily overshadowed by a surprise inventory build, an unexpected increase in OPEC production, or signs of weakening economic data from other major economies. In conclusion, the decision by the Trump administration to extend the tariff deadline on EU goods offered a moment of temporary relief to an oil market that has been under duress from trade war anxieties. This relief manifested as a marginal increase in oil prices, reflecting a slight reduction in immediate perceived risk to global economic activity and oil demand, particularly from Europe. However, this should not be mistaken for a fundamental shift in market sentiment or a resolution to the underlying trade disputes. The threat of tariffs remains, and the broader concerns about a global economic slowdown fueled by protectionist policies continue to loom large. The oil market's cautious reaction underscores the prevailing uncertainty, suggesting that while this extension provides a brief breathing space, the path ahead for oil prices will continue to be heavily influenced by the unpredictable currents of international trade policy.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
GBP/USD manipulation going on right now ??gbpusd had a good rise the last few weeks/months, now its time to pay attention. the price is now ranging,. let me tell you what i think. a little bit higher there is a imbalance in the chart. for me and many others thats a reason to short. why do i think manipulation is going on? for the big people in order to go short they need to attract buyers, so how do they do that? they go long, they build up long orders to attract more buyers so the price doesnt go down and the shorts can get filled. thats what happening right now in my opinion. (i can be wrong) also the rsi is overbought (indicating downside could come ) in my opinion the price will be ranging for a week of 2, after that is wil go a bit higher to eventually come down big time , (like 5% or more) here is the setup i will take. no financial advice, just my thoughts
Short
by Professor_TradeStein
3
RAY (Raydium) – Long Swing Trade Setup from Major SupportRAY is trading at a major support zone between $2.85 – $3.25, which historically has acted as a base for significant upward moves. With strong support beneath and favorable upside targets, this presents a solid long swing opportunity with clear invalidation. 🔹 Entry Zone: $2.85 – $3.25 (key support and previous accumulation range) 🎯 Take Profit Targets: 🥇 $4.23 (previous resistance and psychological level) 🥈 $5.00 (key breakout level and round number target) 🛑 Stop Loss: $2.84 (tight invalidation just below support zone)
Long
by Richtv_official
Cardano (ADA) Rectangle + Internal Uptrend (1D)BINANCE:ADAUSDT has spent months ranging between ~$0.51 and ~$1.15, and the structure now clearly qualifies as a rectangle pattern. After a 3rd touch on support in April, Cardano is showing strength with steady higher lows and a reclaim of a key High Volume Node (HVN). Key Levels to Watch • Main Demand: ~$0.51-$0.58 • Rectangle Support: ~$0.51 • Rectangle Resistance: ~$1.15 • Internal Uptrend Support: Rising diagonal from April • HVN Zone: ~$0.75 — key volume cluster • Rectangle Midline: ~$0.83 — also a previous S/R • Main Supply: $1.10–$1.32 Measured Target If price breaks above $1.15 with volume, the rectangle measured move points to ~$1.80. Context ADA has respected this range for nearly half a year. A breakout could mark the start of a macro bullish leg. Triggers • Bullish: Clean daily close above $1.15 with volume → $1.80 target activated. For a safer entry, it could be worth waiting a full breakout from the main supply above $1.32. • Bearish: Breakdown of the ascending trendline and HVN → Potential return to ~$0.51. Failure to hold that level could lead to further downside to the previous ~$0.30 demand zone.
Long
by AliferCrypto
Why EUR vs GBP Could Be Your Best Trade This Week!When it comes to forex swing trading or even forex intraday trading, the temptation to zoom into lower timeframes—like the 15-minute or 1-hour charts—is strong. Most forex traders focus on short-term momentum, often diving into scalping strategies that chase quick pips. However, the real edge lies where most don’t look: the higher timeframes, particularly the weekly chart. The EUR/GBP forex pair is a perfect example of these higher timeframes' power, especially when paired with smart money concepts like demand and supply imbalances. EUR/GBP: A Hidden Gem for Forex Swing Traders The EUR/GBP Forex cross pair is often overlooked compared to major USD-based pairs. However, for seasoned swing traders and institutional players, EUR/GBP offers deep liquidity, cleaner technical analysis and price action structures, and strong reaction zones that are respected time and time again. At the end of May 2025, a significant weekly demand imbalance at 0.8384 finally took control of price action—something smart money traders had been anticipating for months. This wasn't a surprise for those watching the higher timeframes. Similar to how the previous weekly imbalance at 0.8299 took control in February 2025, these zones have proven critical in guiding the medium- to long-term direction of EUR/GBP.
Long
by AlfonsoMoreno
BITCOIN DOMINANCE Update (12H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section After hitting the two resistance lines marked on the chart (yellow circle), we saw a reaction, but it doesn’t seem like the trend has changed. There’s a possibility that a double top could be forming on the dominance chart. This suggests that selling pressure on altcoins may continue until this index approaches its peak zone. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by behdark
1
XRPUSDT The 4-hour chart of BINANCE:XRPUSDT shows that the overall trend remains bullish, but the price is currently in a corrective downward phase. 📉 At the moment, XRP is trading in a highly critical zone, right at the 2.2860 USDT support level, which aligns with the 200 EMA — often considered a dynamic support area. 🛡️ Despite this confluence, the price still sits below the descending trendline, indicating continued bearish pressure. ⚠️ If the price manages to hold this key zone and break above the trendline, a move toward the next resistance at 2.4800 USDT and potentially 2.6500 USDT could follow. 🚀 However, losing the 2.2860 support could trigger a deeper drop toward 2.1300 USDT and even 1.9500 USDT. ❗ This current level, where static support intersects with the 200 EMA, is a make-or-break zone that will likely define the short-term direction of XRP. Support & Resistance Levels: 🔼 Major Resistance: 2.6500 USDT 🔼 Secondary Resistance: 2.4800 USDT ⚡ Dynamic Resistance (trendline): ~2.3500 USDT 🔽 Key Support (current price level): 2.2860 USDT 🔽 Secondary Support: 2.1300 USDT 🔽 Major Support: 1.9500 USDT
Long
by EhsanZeydabadi
Here is the trend of gold prices in the next three weeks!The hourly level trend indicates that the current support position is 3310-3320. And it is the retracement position after the downward trend is broken. It is also a small retracement point after the rebound. At present, the news trend is basically mixed, offsetting each other. However, in the following period, the growth of risk aversion will boost the rise of XAUUSD, and geopolitics is also an important influencing factor. Short-term buying opportunities are considered at 3325-3300. The short-term target focuses on the pressure of 3375-3400. Remember the core of swing trading. Follow the wave of trading. Do not trade independently to avoid losses. If you are not sure about the trading opportunity. Remember to leave me a message in the swing trading center.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Band_analysis
GBPAUD: Bullish Bias Remains 🇬🇧🇦🇺 I already shared a confirmed bullish breakout of a falling trend line on a daily. Though the price went a bit lower, below that after its retest, we have a significant horizontal support cluster that strongly holds. I think that the price may start rising from that and reach 2.1 level this week. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
5
BTCUSDT Daily: Bulls in Control for NowGood day, BTCUSDT is showing a bullish trend on the Daily timeframe. The nearest major resistance level is around 114,622.88, with an estimated target near 121,366.58 and an overall bias aiming for approximately 130,161.09. If the price pulls back but stays within the first or second bullish range areas, the upward trend is likely to continue. These retracements would still be considered healthy corrections within the broader bullish momentum. However, if the price falls enough to break below the initial low above the trendline, this would signal a loss of bullish momentum and a possible trend reversal. Trade well and have a positive, fulfilling week. K. Not trading advice.
Long
by Khiwe
THE KOG REPORT Bank Holiday tomorrow so we'll keep it simple and update the KOG Report on Tuesday ready for the week ahead. Please have a look at the last few KOG Reports to see how it went, wasn't a bad week at all. This week, immediate red boxes are on the chart, there is a red box active above and the indicator is suggesting a potential retracement on the move. So we'll look for price to attempt the high, if failed we can expect the move downside into the order region where we may settle. RED BOXES: Break above 3365 for 3370, 3376, 3381, 3390 and 3403 in extension of the move Break below 3350 for 3343, 3335, 3330, 3323 and 3310 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
31