Supply and Demand
GBPNZD - Potential Sell Opportunity at Resistance LevelOANDA:GBPNZD is approaching a significant resistance zone, marked by previous strong price rejections. This area has consistently acted as a turning point, suggesting the potential for another bearish reaction if sellers step in.
If the price shows clear signs of rejection from this resistance zone, I anticipate a move downward toward the 2.20620 level, which serves as a logical target for this setup. Conversely, a clean breakout above the resistance zone could signal a potential bullish continuation.
Traders should monitor for bearish confirmation signals, such as bearish engulfing candles, long upper wicks rejecting the resistance, or increased selling volume before considering short positions. Let me know your thoughts or any additional insights you might have!
Looking for Continuation off the Euro's Gap Close The EUR/USD currency pair is showing a bullish setup after a recent gap has been closed. Gaps, especially those that align with the prevailing trend, often attract price action as the market moves to fill them and continue in the direction of the trend. With the gap now closed, it indicates that the market may be ready to resume its bullish momentum and potentially move higher.
Buy the Yen!If you've been following my content, you'll know I've been long the yen since the start of 2025. My short AUDJPY, CADJPY, EURJPY, NOKJPY, and NZDJPY positions are starting to pay off!
The yen index ( TVC:JXY ) recently closed above a key horizontal resistance at 66.00. This may signal the JPY may continue to strengthen and test the weekly range resistance at 71.00.
OANDA:AUDJPY
OANDA:CADJPY
OANDA:EURJPY
OANDA:GBPJPY
OANDA:NZDJPY
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EURAUD: Confirmed Bullish Reversal?!The EURAUD pair has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential bullish reversal.
A breakout above the neckline of the pattern suggests further upward movement, with a likely test of the 1.6620 level in the near future.
BTC TodayAfter creating extreme liquidity above today's low, this demand zone could be a good entry for later. This model 2 would only be correct if the range high does not get taken out before we got a third tap. If this plays out as planned i look for a BOS down there. Coming down one more time for a model 1 inside the deviation limit would also be fine.
SOLUSD Weekly Outlook: Bullish Cypher PatternOverview
On the weekly timeframe, BINANCE:SOLUSD has shifted gears since our last analysis. Previously, we flagged a bearish divergence—higher highs in price paired with lower highs on the DMI Delta—hinting at weakening momentum. Price has since declined, and now it’s tapping into a key demand zone, completing what appears to be a Bullish Cypher harmonic pattern.
Why This Matters
Bearish Divergence Played Out : The prior divergence signaled fading bullish pressure, and the subsequent drop brought SOLUSD from its highs into this demand zone—a textbook pullback scenario.
Bullish Cypher Completion : The pattern’s structure is taking shape: X-A (initial up move), A-B (~38.2%-61.8% retracement of X-A), B-C (~113%-141.4% extension of A-B), and now C-D targeting a 78.6% retracement of X-C. The D point aligns with this demand zone, marking a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).
Demand Zone Test : This level has historical buying interest. If it holds, it could validate the Cypher and spark a reversal.
Key Considerations
Watch the PRZ : The 78.6% X-C retracement (~D point) is critical. To confirm a bounce, look for reversal signals like a bullish candle, volume surge, or RSI/DMI Delta divergence.
Lingering Divergence Risk : While the drop aligned with the prior bearish signal, momentum remains a question. Cross-check with volume or DMI trends before committing.
Risk Management : For longs, set stops below the demand zone. If shorting a breakdown, target the next support level from prior lows.
Upside Potential : A confirmed Cypher could push the price toward the 38.2% or 61.8% retracement of the C-D leg—map these targets on your chart.
Conclusion
The recent decline in BINANCE:SOLUSD following our bearish divergence call has set the stage for a Bullish Cypher at this demand zone. If buyers defend this level with conviction, the pattern could drive a meaningful reversal, invalidating the prior bearish pressure. However, a failure to hold here might extend the correction. Traders should monitor price action and volume at the PRZ for the next actionable signal.
TSLA - Predictable as always. Just look for the controlled liq!We've done this countless times on this stock. I didn't touch this while we were shooting up post elections because of the "meme" factor behind Elon and all that. But once basic market dynamics came back into play, we've had at least 2 golden opportunities to play this name and they proved very successful. So going forward we're looking for a similar play!
Happy Trading :)
ALUMINIUM at Key Resistance – Potential Drop to 2,630FUSIONMARKETS:XALUSD has reached a significant resistance zone, marked by prior price rejections and strong selling pressure. The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms a rejection from this resistance zone, there is a high likelihood of a downward move. I anticipate that if rejection occurs, the market may head lower toward the 2,630 level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure.
Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
Which pair to watch after Merz wins?The rise of the euro and German stocks reflects the market's response to Friedrich Merz's victory in the German legislative elections held on Sunday, February 23, 2025. This victory seems to herald a political shift towards increased government spending, bringing hope for boosting the struggling German economy. The euro experienced a notable recovery against the G10 currencies, rising by about 0.5% against the US dollar, supported by investor expectations that the new government will abandon the conservative financial approach.
Concurrently, the EUR/JPY pair appears poised for a short-term rise, reversing its previous downward trend to an upward one. Currently, this pair is trading at important support levels ranging between 156 and 156.7, enhancing the likelihood of continuing the upward trend and surpassing the recent corrective phase towards a target level of 159.832. It is important to note that this positive outlook will be invalidated if the price falls and closes daily below the 155.506 level.
BTC - Basic Market Dynamics Prevail! Wait for the signs-No Rush!Even though crypto always seems to ignore basic principles of supply and demand, especially considering the strong institutional buying recently, we did expect a liquidity build was necessary - and a deep one at that.
So we're seeing that happen - and you shouldn't be scared or rushing into buying every step of this drop. Let the buyers show themselves - let the levels produce "proofs" as to where the buyers are - and from there we can start to make educated decisions as to when to enter and why we're entering.
Happy Trading :)
TOTAL ROADMAP (1D)By analyzing the TOTAL chart, it can be expected that the crypto market still has room to move downward. Of course, there will be fluctuations along the way, but at least TP 1 is likely to be hit.
For a trend reversal, the lower green zone is a highly significant area.
Let’s see what happens.
A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
XAU/USD 25 February 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 21 February 2025.
Price printed as per yesterday's analysis and bias.
Price has printed a bearish CHocH indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,954.955
Alternative scenario:
Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 21 February 2025, however, you will note how price has targeted strong internal high without closing above.
Price printed as per analysis and bias dated 20 February 2025.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
You will note my comments in yesterday's analysis whereby I mentioned that as we await for H4 TF to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation, it would be a realistic expectation for price to print a bearish iBOS.
This scenario seems underway, price has targeted strong internal low, however, price has, thus far, not been able to close below.
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price should target weak internal high priced at 2,954.955, however, my alternative scenario remains live.
Alternative scenario:
As we await for H4 TF to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation, it would be a realistic expectation for price to print a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
LTC analysis (12H)From the point where we placed the red arrow on the chart, it seems that LTC's correction has begun. Due to ETFs, there is a lot of FOMO around this asset, but it's better to analyze it technically.
It appears that LTC is in an ABC correction or a more complex pattern. Currently, it is in wave B, which is forming as a diametric. We can look for buy/long positions in the green zone.
A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You