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Supply and Demand

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Long
by Golden_candle
XAUUSDResistance Zone (Red Box at the Top): The highlighted red area at the top represents a resistance zone. This is where the price has previously struggled to move higher and has reversed multiple times, indicating strong selling pressure at this level. Support Levels (Horizontal Red Lines Below): There are multiple horizontal red lines drawn below the price, which indicate support levels. These levels are where the price has previously found buying interest, preventing it from falling further. Current Price Action: The price trades near the resistance zone (around 2,703–2,712), showing consolidation or hesitation to break higher. A rejection from this level could lead to a retracement toward lower support levels. Trend Direction: The overall trend appears to be bullish as the price has been forming higher highs and higher lows from the left-hand side of the chart (mid-November). Key Levels: Resistance: Around 2,710–2,720 (area of strong selling pressure). Support: Levels such as 2,680, 2,660, and lower levels are marked on the chart. Market Sentiment: The chart indicates that bulls are attempting to increase prices, but sellers are actively defending the resistance zone. A breakout above this zone could indicate further upward momentum, while rejection might lead to a pullback. Specific Signals to Watch Bullish Buy Signal: A breakout above 2,710–2,720 with strong candles. A dip to 2,680 or lower with clear rejection candles. Bearish Sell Signal: Rejection at 2,710–2,720 with bearish candles. A breakdown below 2,680 with no signs of recovery. To determine the ideal times to buy or sell based on this chart, you can use the following guidelines: Buying Opportunities On a Pullback to Support Levels: Look to buy near support zones (e.g., 2,680, 2,660) where the price has shown previous buying strength. Confirmation: Wait for bullish reversal candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer, engulfing candles) or signs of increased volume. On a Breakout Above Resistance: If the price breaks above the resistance zone (2,710–2,720) with strong momentum (e.g., large green candles, high volume), it could signal continuation of the uptrend. Consider buying after the breakout and on a retest of the broken resistance (now support). Trend Following: Since the overall trend appears bullish (higher highs and higher lows), you could look for buying opportunities on dips in the uptrend. Selling Opportunities At Resistance Zones: If the price reaches the resistance zone (2,710–2,720) and starts showing bearish rejection patterns (e.g., shooting star, bearish engulfing), consider selling, expecting a pullback. This is a counter-trend trade, so it carries higher risk. On a Breakdown of Support: If the price breaks below a key support level (e.g., 2,680), it may indicate further downside. Consider selling after the breakdown and on a retest of the broken support (now resistance). Trend Reversal: If the price forms lower highs and lower lows or breaks below critical support zones, it may signal a trend reversal to bearish, presenting selling opportunities. Specific Signals to Watch Bullish Buy Signal: A breakout above 2,710–2,720 with strong candles. A dip to 2,680 or lower with clear rejection candles. Bearish Sell Signal: Rejection at 2,710–2,720 with bearish candles. A breakdown below 2,680 with no signs of recovery. Risk Management Stop Loss Placement: For buying trades, place your stop loss slightly below the most recent support. For selling trades, place your stop loss slightly above the resistance zone. Take Profit: For buys, aim for levels slightly below the next resistance. For sells, target levels slightly above the next support. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Always aim for a minimum of a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio to ensure profitability over time.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Dee9549
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT In last week’s KOG Report we said we would like to see price attempt a brief test of the high, reject and give us the move down which was successful. We then wanted to exit any short trades and find the optimal spot to long back up sticking to the bias and the bias targets as well as the red box targets and Excalibur. Combined, we got the move up from the pivot red box and managed to complete all of our bullish targets ending the week with a phenomenal pip capture tracking this precious metal at nearly every turning point up and down. A fantastic week again in Camelot not only on Gold but the other pairs we analyse and trade as well. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week again we’ll stick with the bullish bias for now. The key level resistance on open is the 2715-14 price point, if rejected we should see a continuation of the move downside into the lower support levels 2700, 2690 and below that the key level and bias level support 2680-5. It’s that lower level that needs to be monitored, as building a base there and upon a clean reversal we feel the opportunity to then long the market again back up into the 2725, 2730 and above that 2740-5 region initially is what we’ll be looking for. Our weekly red box worked well last week giving the rejection we wanted, and due to the failed break, we would like to see that level attempted again to monitor whether we close above or not. This is really important for gold as another fail can result in another major correction before attempting higher pricing. KOG’s bias of the week: Bullish above 2680-5 with targets above 2720, 2730, 2735 and above that 2745 Bearish on break of 2780 with targets below 2670 and below that 2766 RED BOX TRADERS: Break above 2704 for 2710, 2716, 2735 and 2733 in extension of the move Break below 2695 for 2788, 2682, 2680 and 2665 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
35
Gold Steadies at$2700 Amid Trump Inauguration &Geopolitical CalmXAU/USD: Gold Prices Steady Near $2,700 – Outlook in a Trumpian Era Gold prices go easy Gold prices (XAU/USD) remained steady on Monday morning, fluctuating around $2,700 per ounce as Donald Trump prepared to step onto the podium. With the U.S. observing a holiday (markets are closed) in honor of Martin Luther King Jr., global attention shifts to Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States. Trump’s Market-Moving Speech Ahead Although the specifics of Trump’s speech remain uncertain, analysts speculate that tariffs and tax cuts may emerge as core topics. A softer stance on these points could ease concerns about inflation and reinforce a bullish outlook for gold. Conversely, a more aggressive approach, such as imposing 20% tariffs on imports, might heighten inflation fears and potentially weigh on gold prices. Trump’s inauguration speech is expected to impact gold prices significantly, as it sets the tone for his administration’s economic policies. Geopolitical Developments: Ceasefire in Gaza On a separate note, geopolitical tensions eased on Sunday following confirmation of a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza. The agreement was solidified with Hamas releasing three hostages after some delays, in exchange for Israel freeing 90 prisoners. While gold is traditionally viewed as a safe haven during geopolitical uncertainty, the de-escalation in the Middle East reduced immediate demand for the precious metal. Gold Technical Analysis Gold prices are currently consolidating between $2,706 and $2,722 per ounce. The bearish momentum suggests a potential stabilization within the bearish zone, contingent on key levels being breached. - Bearish Scenario: If prices stabilize below $2,712 and $2,706, further declines to $2,689 and $2,678 are likely, especially if a 4-hour candle closes below $2,706. - Bullish Scenario: To confirm a bullish trend, prices would need to break above $2,722, potentially targeting $2,739. Key Levels Pivot Point: 2712 Resistance Points: 2722, 2739, 2756 Support Points: 2689, 2678, 2665 Trend Outlook Bullish Trend: Above 2722 Bearish Trend: Below 2706
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
XAUUSD - Gold will stabilize above $2700?!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold climbs to the ceiling of the channel, you can look for positions to sell it towards the midline of the channel. Losing the bottom of the channel will lead to the continuation of the downward trend. The gold market had a strong start to the first full trading week of 2025. However, as the week progressed, optimism among traders grew, with predictions indicating a potential rally in gold prices ahead of Trump’s second presidential term. Nevertheless, the market remains cautious about upcoming developments. Rich Checkan, the president and COO of “International Assets Strategies,” believes: “Unless there are any major disruptions during Monday’s inauguration ceremony, I expect gold prices to remain relatively unchanged next week. Market participants are waiting for more clarity on President Trump’s economic policies and their impact on key economic variables. However, one week is insufficient to see tangible effects, and a longer timeframe is needed for better evaluation.” Bart Melek, the managing director and head of commodity strategy at “TD Securities,” highlighted the potential for higher tariffs and their inflationary effects, predicting a slight dip in gold prices. He stated: “If the new president addresses tariffs, signaling higher inflation, and the Federal Reserve takes a more serious stance on its inflation target, gold prices could decline moderately.” At the beginning of 2025, gold is trading near $2,700 per ounce, while Bitcoin has approached the $100,000 threshold, placing both assets at the center of attention in emerging markets. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, forecasts that a correction in stock markets could drive gold prices above $4,000 this year. He remarked: “Gold reaching $4,000 will eventually happen. The unlimited supply of fiat currencies and the limited supply of gold, similar to Bitcoin, make this likely. However, my concern is that a natural and modest correction in the stock market, which is currently overvalued, could push gold to such levels.” McGlone pointed out that the ratio of stock market value to U.S. GDP is around 2.2x — an unprecedented figure in the last 100 years. He emphasized that even a 10% correction in the stock market could provide the necessary momentum for gold prices to surge.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Posting for FUNSince I am in my free time, .. I'm checking on some local stock market.. This time is BBCA, The long term idea on the trend might rest for a while around 8200-8500, before continuing it s uptrend. Since nothing go up forever. Well, not a trading advise though, as me myself is not holding on this stock (because running tooo slooow xD) IF im right, it will be a great timing for long term investors to add more investment in it.. Thank you and have a happy trading day!
IDX:BBCAShort
by berryviano
Copper - Markets are waiting for Trump's new decisions!Copper is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and has left its descending channel. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward. If the upward trend continues, you can sell copper in the next supply zone. In recent days, the value of the U.S. dollar has risen, and Treasury yields have also increased. These developments are primarily driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts this year. President Trump’s promises to raise tariffs, reduce corporate taxes, and deregulate industries have sparked concerns about rising inflation, which was already persistent even before these policies were implemented. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy appears robust, with strong labor market performance in November and December, indicating that the Federal Reserve may not feel pressured to accelerate interest rate cuts. According to projections, investors anticipate that interest rates will decrease by approximately 0.4% by December 2025. This expectation persists despite reports suggesting the new U.S. administration will implement tariff hikes gradually and December inflation data came in lower than expected. The U.S. Tax Foundation estimates that if the U.S. imposes a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 20% tariff on imports from other countries, the average tariff rate would climb to 17.7%. This would represent the highest level recorded since the 1930s. Trump has pledged to impose steep tariffs on goods imported from various nations; however, economists have warned about the potential consequences of such policies. In a recent Reuters survey, all participating economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates within the range of 4.25%-4.50% during its January 29 meeting. Additionally, 61 out of 103 economists expect the rate to decrease to 4.00%-4.25% by March. The survey results also reveal that 65 out of 102 economists believe the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates no more than twice this year (compared to 41 out of 97 in the December survey who held this view). Moreover, 40 out of 49 economists surveyed by Reuters forecast that U.S. inflation in 2025 will likely exceed expectations. Scott Bassant, the nominee for Treasury Secretary in President-elect Trump’s administration, described China’s economy as being in recession. Taking a more pessimistic tone, Bassant labeled China as one of the most unbalanced economies in the world, highlighting the country’s prioritization of military strength and efforts to maintain growth by exporting cheap goods to the rest of the world.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
GBPJPY - Will the pound continue to weaken?The GBPJPY currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the corrective movement continues towards the supply zone, we can sell with a suitable risk reward. According to the latest Bloomberg survey, the UK government faces significant challenges in restoring investor confidence, as the pound and British bonds continue their downward trend. Following a decline in UK markets early in 2025 due to rising concerns over debt and inflation, about 51% of the 250 participants in last week’s survey predicted the pound would fall to between $1.15 and $1.20 by the end of June. This would mark the currency’s weakest level in over two years. Meanwhile, 45% of participants anticipate greater volatility in the pound, with 10-year UK bond yields expected to rise above 5% this year.Taylor, a member of the Bank of England, emphasized the importance of staying vigilant against potential risks. He suggested that recent data indicate a worsening economic outlook and that interest rates should be reduced promptly to avoid further challenges. In Japan, households expect prices to rise in the coming year. The percentage of households with such expectations increased slightly from 85.6% in the previous survey to 85.7%. However, five-year inflation expectations have seen a slight decline. According to the Bank of Japan, average annual inflation expectations among households stand at 11.5%, based on the latest survey. Goldman Sachs economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week. The firm also remains optimistic about the yen, expecting any action by the Bank of Japan in January to support the currency. Market pricing suggests that an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is almost certain. According to Bloomberg, Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, will evaluate the need for a rate hike on Friday. Expectations for an interest rate increase have grown, provided that potential shocks from the early days of Trump’s presidency do not materialize. While other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, are focused on rate cuts, the Bank of Japan is moving in the opposite direction, aiming for a gradual return to conventional monetary policies. The Bank of Japan is set to announce its first interest rate decision of 2025 on Friday. During its final meeting in 2024, the bank decided to keep rates unchanged. Governor Ueda stated that more data is needed to justify a rate hike, highlighting concerns about wages and uncertainties surrounding Trump’s economic policies. Since then, new data has shown a significant rise in November inflation, with December inflation pressures also intensifying. Wages also grew in November. Additionally, a summary of opinions from the December meeting indicates that a rate hike could occur sooner than investors anticipate. Given these developments and recent remarks from BoJ officials, investors assign an 80% probability to a 0.25% rate hike. However, the Bank of Japan has a long history of disappointing expectations for rate increases. If Trump adopts an aggressive stance on tariffs in his upcoming speech, the BoJ may once again refrain from raising rates, potentially leading to a decline in the yen. If the Bank of Japan does raise interest rates, the yen is likely to strengthen, but the associated risks are asymmetrical. The negative impact of refraining from a hike could outweigh the positive effect of an increase. Nonetheless, a further decline in the yen might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene to support the currency.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Bitcoin - Bitcoin, waiting for Trump's new policies!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Bitcoin's downward correction and its placement in the demand zone will allow us to buy it. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. Bullish signs are abundant in the cryptocurrency market, as investors observe various factors that favor this sector beyond Bitcoin. While some analysts predict 2025 as the year of altcoins, JPMorgan argues that Bitcoin will remain an attractive option. Market experts point to cyclical trends that could boost altcoins such as Solana and Ripple. These two tokens experienced significant growth following Donald Trump’s election victory, driven by expectations of greater support from the new administration. However, JPMorgan highlights four reasons why investors should approach the altcoin market cautiously. First, future policies remain speculative, with uncertainty surrounding their timing and impact. Although reduced regulatory oversight may improve sentiment across the industry, there is no guarantee that interest in decentralized finance will grow substantially. JPMorgan noted that it is still unclear whether these new regulations will allow the crypto ecosystem to integrate into traditional financial systems or if public blockchains like Ethereum will play a central role in the future. Additionally, the bank stated that ambitious plans for crypto reserves in the United States and beyond are likely to focus solely on Bitcoin. Certain U.S. states have already proposed legislation to hold Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, a policy Washington might adopt during Trump’s second term. Second, Bitcoin continues to dominate the cryptocurrency fund space. JPMorgan predicts that retail and institutional investors will keep investing in Bitcoin spot ETFs, supported by Bitcoin’s appeal as digital gold. According to a Bernstein report, Bitcoin is expected to replace gold as the primary store of value in the global economy over the next decade. Bitcoin accounted for 35% of the total $78 billion inflows into the crypto market in 2024, according to JPMorgan. By contrast, Ethereum spot ETFs, launched in July 2024, attracted only $2.4 billion. The bank also forecasts that future ETFs for altcoins like Solana may see limited capital inflows. Third, the Bitcoin network is evolving to rival tokens with more specific use cases, such as Ethereum. Historically, Bitcoin was perceived as a buy-and-hold asset with limited functionality. However, developers have been expanding its capabilities, and new smart contract features will help it compete with rivals. JPMorgan also stated that large institutions might overlook public blockchains like Ethereum in favor of private blockchains offering customized solutions for institutional investors. Fourth, new altcoin projects require time to mature and prove their utility. The bank explained that decentralized initiatives often attract initial user attention but then face declining activity and token value. To achieve sustainability, these projects must demonstrate their long-term functional benefits. JPMorgan cautioned investors against expecting a repeat of the 2021 crypto bull market. During that period, projects succeeded through token distribution, but the current industry is more focused on blockchain capability development. The bank further noted that MicroStrategy is still halfway through its plan to invest $42 billion in Bitcoin. This software company has made a name for itself by accumulating vast Bitcoin reserves through equity and debt financing. For the first time in history, over 20% of total spot trading volume is conducted on decentralized exchanges (DEXs). Standard Chartered Bank warned that if the $90,000 support level breaks, Bitcoin could drop to around $80,000. The bank highlighted that Bitcoin ETF purchases have stabilized since the U.S. presidential election, and Jerome Powell’s policy shifts at the Federal Reserve on December 18 have increased selling pressure on digital assets. The bank cautioned that widespread panic could amplify these sell-offs, potentially affecting other cryptocurrencies.Nevertheless, such a price drop could present a long-term accumulation opportunity.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Buy Trade Idea: USD/CHFUSD/CHF has recently broken above the key resistance level at 0.9128, which has now turned into a support zone. The price is currently retesting this level, indicating potential for a bullish continuation toward higher resistance zones. Entry: 0.9128 Stop Loss (SL): 0.9080 Take Profit (TP): 0.9300 As the trade progresses, price action should be monitored closely. Stop Loss adjustments can be made to break-even or to secure profits as the price approaches the TP level. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) of approximately 1:4, making it a sound trade from a risk management perspective. This trade setup is based on a combination of technical analysis, market structure, and the breakout-retest dynamic, supporting a bullish bias.
Long
by Trade_Navigator010