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Supply and Demand

XAU/USD 20 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price printed as per my intraday expectation dated 17 January 2024 by printing a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation. Internal range is now established as a result of the bearish CHoCH. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ or H4 demand zone to then target weak internal high priced at 2,724.785. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Bias/Analysis remains the same as analysis dated 17 January 2025. You will also note how price attempted to target strong internal low but failed to close below. Price Action Analysis: Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Within the sub-structure there is further bullish iBOS, however, price did not pullback deep enough to warrant a bullish iBOS. I will therefore apply my discretion, which may need a revisit. H4 TF has printed a bullish iBOS and it appears bearish pullback phase initiation is underway, however, we currently do not have any indication, or confirmation. Current internal low and H4 TF CHoCH positioning are the same, priced at 2,690.050, therefore, despite M15 internal range dynamics being bullish, it is highly likely price will print a bearish iBOS Intraday Expectation: Technically, price should show reaction at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,724.785, however, the above mentioned scenario is also highly probable to assist H4 in it's bearish pullback phase. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
USDCHF – Potential Bearish Continuation Toward SupportThe USDCHF pair has broken below a key ascending trendline, signaling a potential shift in momentum. This move aligns with a bearish bias, suggesting that price action may now head lower. If the price retraces back to the broken trendline or nearby resistance levels and forms bearish confirmations—such as rejection patterns, bearish engulfing candles, or long upper wicks, it could reinforce the likelihood of further downside movement. Should this scenario materialize, sellers may target the 0.90484 level as the next area of interest. A sustained breakdown below this support zone could pave the way for continued bearish pressure. However, traders should remain cautious. A break back above the resistance zone or strong bullish momentum could invalidate this outlook.
Short
by TrendDiva
1
Sell Trade Idea: GBP/USDGBP/USD is currently in a bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows. The price has recently retested a key resistance zone near 1.2220 and shown signs of rejection, indicating potential for further downside movement. Entry: 1.2220 Stop Loss (SL): 1.2270 Take Profit (TP): 1.2070 As the trade progresses, price action should be monitored closely. Stop Loss adjustments can be made to break-even or to secure profits as the price approaches the TP level. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) of approximately 1:3, making it a sound trade from a risk management perspective. This trade setup is based on a combination of technical analysis, fundamental analysis, investor sentiment, and retail sentiment.
Short
by Trade_Navigator010
KSM Buy/Long setup (8H)From the point where we placed the red arrow on the chart, it seems that KSM is forming an expanding triangle or a diametric pattern. Waves A through D have completed, and we are currently in wave E. Wave E is a bearish wave. We have identified two entries for buy positions. If the price reaches our entry levels, we will enter buy positions. The targets are marked on the chart. A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
GBPNZD Swing trade: WC20/01/2025 GBPNZD Analysis: Waiting for Key Closes From a swing perspective, GBPNZD is a no-trade for now, with a bias still leaning bullish. The higher timeframes (daily) show a deeper pullback into the previous higher high, indicating we may be in a consolidation phase. If today's daily close is below 2.17900, we could see a deeper pullback toward the 2.14900 region before a potential buy opportunity. This pullback could offer a solid 5:1 risk/reward if we enter once price begins to form a new higher high. For confirmation of bullish momentum, we’d need to see a daily close above 2.18783 today. This would signal strong upward momentum and give us a clearer entry for the next leg up. Patience is key, as we need confirmation before entering buys. Keep an eye on these levels!
Long
by Thetraderscollective
GBPJPY Analysis: Swing 20/01/2025 GBPJPY Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Since rejecting 198.500 on January 8th, GBPJPY has been in a steady bearish descent, completing an M-structure on the daily timeframe. Fundamentals continue to support JPY strength in the coming days and weeks, suggesting further bearish momentum. However, keep in mind that we could see a bullish pullback before the next leg down. For now, the key level to watch is 190.400. If we get a daily bearish close below this level, it could open the door for a move toward 187, offering a potential 400-pip opportunity before reassessing. Patience is crucial—no trade unless we see a confirmed break below 190.400
Short
by Thetraderscollective
PNUT buy/long setup (12H)We previously identified PNUT's fluctuations effectively. Based on recent data, it’s better to expand the PNUT pattern and classify it under a larger Triangle or Diametric structure. We are again looking for buy/long positions around the green zone. This is a strong origin kink. Targets are marked on the chart. A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this view. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
1
XAUUSD Weekly Analysis 20/1/2025Gold remains bullish, but we're approaching a significant resistance level at 2748. On the 4-hour chart, this level has already formed a triple top: November 25th, December 24th, and January 16th. These repeated rejections highlight the importance of this area as a decision point for price action. For a continuation of the bullish trend, we need to see a strong 4-hour close above 2748. Why 4-hour? Because we've seen 30-minute closes above this level in the past, but the lack of follow-through led to bearish reversals. A confirmed 4-hour breakout would suggest the bulls are ready to push higher, targeting the next major level around 2787.55, offering approximately 200 pips of potential upside before re-evaluating the trade. On the flip side, a rejection at this level could lead to a significant move lower, similar to what we saw in December. The first target in this scenario is around 2640 (a potential 750-pip drop). If selling pressure intensifies, we could see an extended move down to 2581, which would represent a 1,300-pip decline. At those lower levels, we would look for buying opportunities, as they could provide a favourable setup for continuing the long-term bullish trend. For now, all eyes are on 2748—watch closely for how price reacts here, as it will set the tone for the next big move!
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Thetraderscollective
BTC/USDT 4H Timeframe AnalysisBTC/USDT 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend Analysis On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC/USDT is in an uptrend, having recently broken above the minor key resistance at 99.500, which is now acting as a minor key support. After breaking this level, the price moved towards the next resistance level at 102.300, where large volumes of buyers accumulated. However, the price then reversed, breaking below the minor key support to hunt for stop-losses, creating a liquidity zone. This marks a phase of manipulation. With liquidity now formed, the price is poised for another breakout to the upside. We expect the price to break above the minor key resistance at 102.700, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. Price Action Expectation: Wait for the price to break above the minor key resistance at 102.700 to confirm the continuation of the uptrend. Plan to enter after the breakout for optimal trade positioning. Trade Setup Trade Type: Buy Stop Entry: 102.700 (upon confirmation of the breakout above resistance) Stop Loss: 99.400 (below the liquidity zone to avoid false breakouts) Take Profit: 110.000 (targeting the next significant resistance level) This setup ensures a strategic approach, leveraging liquidity formation and trend continuation. Fundamental Outlook: Bitcoin is holding steady above $104,000, with open interest in BTC surpassing $65 billion. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s inauguration is scheduled for Monday, and experts argue that this could turn into a pump-and-dump event for crypto. Cryptocurrency expert Frank Chaparro suggests that the crypto community is celebrating Trump’s inauguration as the end of a four-year “harassment” of crypto startups. The market may react to these events, and it's important to monitor the developments surrounding this situation as they could influence Bitcoin’s price movements. Risk Management: Maintain a 1:2+ risk-to-reward ratio to optimize potential returns. Position size should be calculated based on your account equity and risk tolerance. Closely monitor liquidity zones to avoid premature stop-outs. Trading involves substantial risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Always seek guidance from a financial professional if you’re unsure about trading decisions.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by RebornFXTrader
EURUSD 20-24 Jan 2025 W4 - Weekly AnalysisThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 20-24 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart AnalysisDaily Chart Analysis4H Chart AnalysisEconomic Events for the Week Market Sentiment Interest Rate Differentials: The widening gap between US and Eurozone interest rates favors the USD. Higher US yields attract capital flows, supporting the USD against the euro. Inflation Trends: While inflation in the Eurozone remains subdued, the US continues to grapple with sticky inflation, keeping the Fed cautious about easing policy. This divergence further supports the USD. Energy Prices: Elevated energy prices, driven by geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions, could weigh on the Eurozone’s trade balance and economic growth, adding pressure to the euro. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Expectations is for price to start a pullback phase from the Weekly demand zone / or from the liquidity sweep from the Nov 2022 low (Require Daily/4H confirmation). Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish approaching the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the receint iBOS, price pulled back to EQ (50%) of the INT Structure but currently failed to create a new iBOS with a Bullish CHoCH forming a new Demand. 🔹Expectations is not clear as we could start a deep pullback to intiate the Weekly Pullback Phase required or the current failure to creare a new Bearish iBOS is just a pause in market for more bearish move to at least the Weekly Demand. More development required from LTFs. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Fractal) 2️⃣ 🔹After the Bearish BOS, price pulled back to the Swing EQ (50%) tapping into a Daily and a 4H Supply that caused a Bearish CHoCH and forming a Supply that price is contained within it. 3️⃣ 🔹Price is currently ranging between Supply and Demand which clearly makes price indecisively have a clear direction. More developments required on LTFs to have a clear expectation. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
3
USDCAD H1 | Bullish Bounce offBased on the H1 chart, price is falling toward the buy entry at 1.44197, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and for a bullish bounce off the key support level at. This level is expected to act as a strong entry point in the bullish setup. Our take profit is set at 1.44777, targeting a swing high resistance level, marking a logical exit point for the trade. The stop loss is set at 1.43675, below the recent swing low, allowing room for price fluctuations while protecting against invalidation of the bullish bias.
Long
by abouel