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Supply and Demand

UPDATE ON USD/CHF TRADEUSD/CHF 1H - As you can see this trade is still playing out very well, price has now broken above the previous highs after testing this area of Demand for the second time. I am now expecting to continue trading us higher and eventually breaking the last higher timeframe high set in the market, by price doing this its confirming longer term bullishness. This trade is currently running + 36 pips. (+ 2%) 2RR A big well done to those who got involved in this trade last week, I went ahead and took a partial late last night for the trade leaving just under half my position left open. If you have any questions with regards to the trade or the analysis behind the trade then please drop me a message or comment below and I will get back to you as soon as possible!
by Lukegforex
SILVER PROJECTION Here's my projection for Xag this week. PS: price would do what it wants to do regardless We cleared the high of the second week of the Month 34.067 and close bearish last week. Hence my anticipation that price is going to clear the los of the second week as well which is 31.789 taking that as my draw of Liquidity 🧲. Shuffling down to H4, everything now depends on confirmation. Price may react from 33.302 and continue to the downside or price may decide to go and test that 33.597 zon before the sell continuation. Watch out for these zone for trade opportunity. Kindly boost if you find this insightful 🫴
FX:XAGUSD
by HallowAdept
Soybean Market Trends: Impact of Exports and Production ForecastProduction Forecasts and Supply Adjustments The USDA's latest projections indicate a downward revision in global soybean production, primarily due to adverse weather conditions in South America. Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer, has faced inconsistent rainfall patterns, leading to a production estimate of 153 million metric tons (MMT), a 1.5 MMT decrease from previous forecasts. Similarly, Argentina's output is now expected to reach 49.5 MMT, reflecting a reduction of 0.5 MMT due to ongoing drought concerns. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean production remains steady at 112.5 MMT, with domestic ending stocks revised up to 8.5 MMT as lower export demand contributes to higher carryover supplies. This increase in stock levels could exert downward pressure on U.S. soybean prices in the coming months. Export Dynamics and Demand Shifts The global soybean trade landscape is also shifting. While China remains the dominant buyer, its import demand has softened slightly, leading to a 1 MMT reduction in projected purchases, now standing at 97 MMT for the 2024/25 season. This decline is attributed to higher domestic inventories and efforts to diversify feed sources. Conversely, the U.S. has adjusted its export projections downward by 2 MMT, now estimated at 47.5 MMT, as Brazil continues to dominate the market with competitive pricing. The depreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar has made Brazilian soybeans more attractive to global buyers, reinforcing Brazil’s position as the leading exporter. Additionally, with about 74% of Brazil’s soybean crop already harvested, up from 69% last year, the country is well-positioned to capture further market share. Further complicating U.S. export prospects, President Trump’s plan to impose sweeping reciprocal tariffs on key trade partners, including Canada and Mexico, starting April 2nd, raises concerns over reduced demand for U.S. grains and oilseeds. U.S.-China trade tensions have also intensified, with China retaliating by raising duties on U.S. agricultural products and shifting more purchases to Brazil. This policy shift could exacerbate pressure on American soybean exporters. Price Outlook and Market Implications Soybean futures CBOT:ZS1! on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) are fluctuating around $10 per bushel, reflecting concerns over shifting global demand, higher U.S. stockpiles, and trade policy uncertainties. If production estimates in South America continue to decline, prices could find some short-term support. However, the risk of weakened U.S. exports due to tariffs and strong Brazilian competition may limit any significant upside potential. Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor the USDA's upcoming Grain Stocks and Prospective Planting Reports, set for release on March 31st, which will provide insight into U.S. farmers’ planting intentions for 2025. These updates, along with geopolitical developments and weather conditions in South America, will play a crucial role in shaping soybean market trends in the coming months.
CAPITALCOM:SOYBEAN
by juliakhandoshko
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would anticipate a potential curveball and that being that price may just support on the open at the immediate support level and give the move upside into the 3010 and above that 3020 region which was achieved. We then updated traders with the FOMC report suggesting a further move upside into the 3050-55 region which is where we suggested the potential short will come from. After the push up into the level and then some accumulation, Friday gave us the volume we needed to break away from the range and complete the move downside to end the week. Again, nearly all of our bias level targets were completed, the bias level worked well, Excalibur performed well and the red box indi’s worked a dream, even in the choppy market conditions. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We have an issue with gold at the moment, although it’s broken the immediate range, it’s still above 3000 with a larger range low around the 2990 and below that 2970-75 region. That potential swing point below is an area of interest for us this week and leading up towards the end of the month. For that reason, if we can support at the first red box below, and continue the move that started on Friday up into those 3025, 3030 and above that 3035-7 price points we’ll want to monitor this careful for a reversal to form. If we can get it, an opportunity to add or take the short may be available to traders, this time in attempt to break below the 3000 level into those lower support level mentioned and shown on the chart, which also correspond with the red boxes. As many of you have seen over the last year or so, we’ve been sharing these indicator boxes on the 4H for the wider community for free, as they are extremely powerful in identifying turning points and entry and exit points for traders. So let’s keep an eye on them this week for the break and closes, RIP’s and rejections. We’re mostly looking for this one move to complete, however, there has to be a flip! This week, the flip is breaking above that 3035-37 level which will also be this week’s bias level. If we do breach, we’ll be looking at this to then continue higher, breaking 3050 and then resuming the move into the active Excalibur targets above which ideally, we don't want to see happen yet! So, we know we want higher, what we do want though is better entry levels for the longs, until then, if we can capture these short trades we’ll of course gratefully take them. KOG’s bias for the week: Bearish below 3040 with targets below 3010, 3006, 2997, 2985 and below that 2978 Bullish on break of 3040 with targets above 3050, 3055, 3063 and above that 3067 RED BOXES: Break above 3037 for 3040, 3047, 3050, 3055, 3063 and 3066 in extension of the move Break below 3010 for 3006, 3000, 2997, 2990 and 2985 in extension of the move This should give you an idea of your levels, please use them! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
17
BTC:Short at high levelsAs per my previous strategy, Bitcoin is on an upward trend. It witnessed a strong rally at today's opening and faced short - term resistance around 88,000. If it fails to break through 88,000 in the short term, one can seize the opportunity of the price pullback from the high level to initiate short positions. BTC Trading strategy: Sell@88000-88500 TP1:85500 TP2:84000 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
Short
by LeoBlackwood
1
GBPUSD I Weekly CLS , KL - Order block, Model 1 , CLS restestHey Traders!! Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions! 🧩 What is CLS? CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion. ✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets. 🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2. These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions. 📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow. Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader! “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” David Perk ⚔
Short
by David_Perk
11
USOil：Wait for rebound to shortThe market movement on Friday was not significant. The intraday high was reached at the opening in the morning, hitting a peak of $68.65, while the low was at $67.65. The maximum intraday fluctuation was just $1, and the price trend showed a shallow V - shape. Considering that Trump is bound to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict over the weekend, crude oil will likely remain bearish in the short term. Therefore, today's market is generally expected to rise first and then decline under pressure again. USOIL Trading Strategy: Sell@68.5-69 TP:67-66 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
TVC:USOILShort
by LeoBlackwood
Corn Market Shifts: Changing Production of U.S. & South AmericaAs global agricultural markets navigate shifting production patterns, the corn sector remains a focal point due to its critical role in food security and biofuel production. Let’s take a look at key developments in corn output, particularly in the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil, and their potential impact on global supply and pricing trends. U.S. Corn Production: A Mixed Outlook The U.S. Department of Agriculture has revised its projections for domestic corn production, reflecting both positive and negative trends. Total U.S. corn output is expected to reach 15.1 billion bushels, a slight decrease from previous estimates due to lower-than-expected yields in key growing states. Despite this, ending stocks have been adjusted upward to 2.2 billion bushels, indicating sufficient supply levels. A crucial factor affecting U.S. corn production is the fluctuating export demand. While domestic feed and ethanol consumption remain stable, global competition, particularly from South American producers, continues to exert pressure on U.S. export volumes. Current projections indicate U.S. corn exports will total 2.05 billion bushels, reflecting a year-over-year decline as international buyers explore alternative suppliers. South American Production: A Tale of Two Countries Argentina and Brazil, two of the largest corn exporters, are experiencing divergent production trends. Argentina’s corn production, after facing drought-induced setbacks in previous seasons, is set for a strong rebound, with output projected at 55 million metric tons (MMT). Improved weather conditions and increased acreage have contributed to this recovery, positioning Argentina as a key player in global exports. Brazil’s production outlook, in contrast, is slightly weaker, estimated at 122 MMT, down from earlier projections. Adverse weather conditions, particularly excessive rainfall in southern regions, have negatively impacted planting progress and crop health. Despite this, Brazil remains the world’s second-largest corn producer, ensuring a steady flow of exports to key markets like China. Global Market Implications The shift in production between the U.S. and South America has several implications for global markets, first one is price volatility. With Argentina increasing supply and Brazil facing production challenges, corn prices are expected to remain volatile. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures are currently trading near $4.71 per bushel, reflecting uncertainty in supply expectations. Next one is export Competition. The U.S. faces increasing competition from Argentina, which is aggressively pricing its exports to regain market share. This could further strain U.S. export potential and limit price gains. Another one, pretty important, is chinese demand. China, a major corn importer, is diversifying its sourcing strategy, increasing purchases from Brazil while maintaining steady volumes from the U.S. and Argentina. This shift could alter trade dynamics in the coming months. Investment Outlook For investors, such a trends highlight both risks and opportunities in the agricultural commodities sector. Futures traders should monitor price movements on the CBOT, particularly given potential supply disruptions in Brazil and increased competition from Argentina. Additionally, agriculture-focused ETFs and agribusiness stocks with exposure to South American markets may present attractive investment options. As the planting season progresses, market participants should closely track weather developments, policy changes, and evolving trade dynamics to navigate more effectively the complexities of the global corn market.
CBOT:ZC1!
by juliakhandoshko
XAUUSD:Continue short - selling at night.As long as gold doesn't stage a strong rally this week, the hourly moving averages of gold may continue to head downward. Eventually, if a bearish death cross and a short - biased arrangement are formed, the downside potential of gold can be truly unlocked. The resistance of the gold moving averages has now shifted down to around 3036. Therefore, there is still some resistance within this range. Continue to engage in short - selling at high levels around the resistance of 3033. As long as this level remains unbroken, the strategy of shorting at highs between 3030 - 3033 remains unchanged. Set a stop - loss at 3040 and a take - profit at 3010. Be cautious of risks. XAUUSD Trading Strategy: sell@3030-3035 TP:3010 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by LeoBlackwood
S&P 500 Setting Up for a Breakout – But Not Before One More TrapAs I’ve said before, the FOREXCOM:SPX500 is a key reference for my crypto trading . That’s why I sat down and took a closer look at the chart – and I’m now ready to place a limit order , based on what I’m seeing. I believe we’re still in a correction phase , and it’s far from over . However, I think it’s realistic that we’ll see a move toward $5,832 next week . Before that happens, I expect either today’s Monday Low or next week’s Previous Weekly Low to get swept, ideally triggering a dip into the 12-hour Fair Value Gap just below. That’s where I see my entry zone forming. It’s also the exact area where Wave B overshoots the starting point of Wave ABC, making it a clean Flat correction pattern, with Wave C completing to the downside before we get a solid move upward. I’m setting my stop-loss below the $5,500 low. If this setup plays out, I expect the S&P to push toward $5,832 , and after that, I’m anticipating a larger correction that could take the index back down to $5,500 or even $5,450 over the coming weeks. Timing remains unclear for that move after, but the structure is here , and I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out.
FX:SPX500Long
by stromm