Is VIDT about to drop? Don’t ignore the bearish signs! (3D)Note: The funding fee for this asset in futures is very high, and it's also a highly volatile and risky asset. Be cautious when taking positions on it.
Note: This coin is on Binance's delisting red list.
Since the point where we placed the green arrow on the chart, this asset has started forming a symmetrical pattern.The pattern has generally been upward, although it eventually transitioned into a sideways movement.
We are currently in the final bullish wave of this pattern, known as wave I. The red zone marks an optimized supply area. if the price reaches this zone, it presents a potential Sell/Short opportunity.
A daily candle closing above the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Supply and Demand
SPY Trade Review – Potential Pop and Flop SetupI’m tracking a potential pop and flop scenario forming on SPY. There’s a setup for a possible 5.5% move higher, followed by the opportunity for a larger short of up to 15% toward final downside targets.
SPY and its key influencers, including the Magnificent Seven , are currently rebounding off significant support levels. This could allow for continued upside before running into major resistance.
As highlighted in the chart, we may see a further push higher of approximately 5.5% , taking us into the weekly/daily high support lost zone at $564 . If this level acts as firm resistance and price reverses, a break below $549.83 (our trigger for adding short exposure) could lead to a significant selloff.
Downside targets include:
- Target 1: $502
- Target 2: $476.30 (a potential new local low)
A daily or weekly close above $564.52 would invalidate this short setup.
This is a high time frame setup , but I’ve shown it on the 4-hour chart for greater clarity. Now we wait and see!
GBPUSD I Weekly CLS I KL - OB I Model 2, Target HTF OBHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
🛡️ Models 1 and 2:
From my posts, you can learn two core execution models.
They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
📍 Model 2
occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
⚔️ Listen Carefully:
Analysis is not trading. Right now, this platform is full of gurus" trying to sell you dreams based on analysis with arrows while they don't even have the skill to trade themselves.
If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
ADAUSD Future PredictionWhere do you expect price to move in the future? Price is at a nice support level, and crypto is still continuing it's correction to the downside. Is the bear run over?
Weekly Forex Outlook Sun.April.13.2025 - Fri.April.18.2025Like and Comments would be appreciated :D Not Financial Advice, Just my outlook/opinion
$NASDAQ:PLTR Bearish ThesisNote: Testing the Supply and Demand Basis for Trading
Based on the 1-d chart, the recent bullish move following Trump's tweet has not yet broken through the Supply Zone. Expected pullback back to Demand Zone. Reward/Risk Ratio = 2.78 using these zone.
If another bull-run breaks past Supply Zone will close short position and wait until bounce from ATH Supply Zone to re-enter.
TLT Long and NeutralCurrent demand Zone confirmed,
Long entry 87
no Stop ,
Target 89
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
GBP/USD - Weekly Elliott Wave Forecast | Potential B-Wave Trap!Pattern: Completed 5-Wave Impulse + ABC Zigzag Correction
Current Price: 1.3056
Forecast: Bearish B-Wave Reversal Incoming?
Technical Breakdown:
Major impulse from 2007 to 2022 marked as 1 to 5
A corrective ABC move completed at the key resistance zone
Price currently facing rejection from the C wave top
High probability of a B-Wave trap forming before a drop to the 1.14 zone
Strong confluence with historical structure and Fibonacci retracement
Next Move:
Watch for a weekly candle close below 1.28 to confirm the reversal. Bears may target the 1.14 zone in the next leg down.
Wave Structure Visualized (Top-Right Inset):
Shows possible B-Wave drop before bullish C continuation — a perfect trap zone for early bulls.
Trade Plan:
Short bias below 1.30 with SL above 1.32
Target: 1.18–1.14 zone
Re-assess price action near 1.14 for long opportunities
Stay Sharp, Stay Green!
There is a good probability on the bullish side.There is a strong support zone holding on the weekly timeframe, and it's exactly from this level that a reversal signal has appeared on the four-hour chart, along with a structure shift and a candle close. Moreover, the RSI indicates a bullish divergence. Now, it's just the weekly trendline that needs to be broken—once that happens, nothing can stop ETH from turning bullish.
Long trade
15min TF overview
✅ Trade Breakdown – Buy-Side (BTC/USDT)
📅 Date: Friday, April 11, 2025
⏰ Time: 5:00 PM – London to NY Session PM
📈 Pair: BTC/USDT
🧭 Direction: Long (Buy)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 82,168.4
Take Profit (TP): 83,771.5 (+1.95%)
Stop Loss (SL): 81,646.2 (–0.64%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 3.07
🧠 Trade Narrative:
This late-session BTC long appears to align with:
A bullish continuation setup during a potential pullback into demand.
5min TF overview supporting price action narrative.
04/07 GEX + Historic VIX Highs: Extreme Volatility with OptionsWow, where to begin? We’ve just come through a week that even the most thorough analysts found surprising.
Last Friday’s brutal sell-off triggered such a massive margin call rally that even the hedge funds were forced to exit gold—which is usually considered a safe haven—on Friday.
The VIX is at a historic high — no joke. We last saw levels like this during the 2008 crisis and the COVID panic in 2020.
📌 High IV = High Theta
When implied volatility (IV) is high, theta (the time decay of options) is also high. This means that maintaining long put protection becomes extremely expensive. From a broker’s hedging perspective, if they are short expensive put options, they can gradually buy back their futures positions over time (all else being equal). As IV rises, this buyback becomes increasingly attractive for them.
Let’s look at our weekly SPY analysis using GEX Profile (Gamma Exposure) indicator first:
It’s definitely not a cheerful chart!
* Below 520: We have strikes dominated by puts. The largest negative GEX “profit-taking zone” sits at 490. If price reaches that level and the support fails (the previous major bottom from April 2024), we could move even further down into a very wide negative squeeze zone, possibly as far as 445.
* HVL zone: 520–546: A choppy area around the gamma flip.
* Above 546: This would signal a +10-15% rally, putting us in a positive gamma zone. However, such a scenario currently seems unlikely—at least based on the gamma levels we see right now.
I won’t sugarcoat it: we’re at levels now where the market could easily move 10% in either direction. So, in my view, forget about conservative option strategies with flat delta exposure.
🤔 What Can We Do?
Important: This analysis reflects my personal opinion only. It’s primarily for those looking to speculate in this highly uncertain environment. If you’re holding put options strictly as a hedge, then this may not be directly relevant to you. In these conditions, the number one rule is to survive—hedges are meant to protect assets or guard against margin calls, not to make profit.
Currently, IV (implied volatility) and VIX are at historic highs. For them to stay this elevated, we’d need new negative headlines and further major market drops. While that could certainly happen, statistically it becomes less and less likely as time goes on.
Buying Put Options …. no way?
First off, there are plenty of challenges if you plan to buy put options right now—most of all their cost. Put options are nearly twice as expensive as calls in many cases.
Does this mean I recommend selling puts or put spreads? I’m not saying you shouldn’t, but be aware: this isn’t for the faint-hearted or for beginners (the risk is high!). It might be worth exploring butterfly or vertical debit spread strategies, as our goal remains the same as always: to maximize the risk–reward ratio.
🐂 If You’re Bullish
This might sound like a ninja move, but one possibility is to buy call butterfly spreads. Yes, the market could still drop—that’s absolutely possible. But statistically, it’s becoming less likely that we’ll see another huge leg down without some form of rebound.
- Slight Move Up: In the event of a mild rise, call spreads and call butterfly strategies can significantly outperform a simple long call. The short legs in a spread/fly offset high theta costs and mitigate the negative effects of falling IV.
- Even with a +10% Move: A long call is often still not the best choice in this environment—even if the option goes deep in the money.
Where Call Spread/Butterfly Can Fail
If stocks rally 15–20% or more and IV also increases (which would be unprecedented in just a few days).
If the market crashes and VIX spikes above 100 (IV would skyrocket, raising the cost of all options further).
Cheap Bullish Calendar Spread
In a situation like this, even a cheap calendar spread can be a good play — the risk is relatively low, especially if managed well and the breakeven range is wide. Of course, if implied volatility drops, the spread could narrow, but that would likely come with a market rally, which theta can help capitalize on.
🐻 If You’re Bearish
I strongly advise against buying single-leg puts, even on a 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiration) basis. If you’re convinced the market will keep dropping, I’d only consider debit spreads, aiming for a solid risk–reward ratio (in my case, I look for at least 1:2 risk-to-reward).
⚖️ If You Want to Stay Neutral / Omni bullish
If you prefer not to pick a direction, you could try to capitalize on historically high IV with a May-expiration Iron Condor. This is the classic TastyTrade approach, with the caveat that you must monitor GEX levels and IV daily and adjust the far side as needed.
Risk Management: If the spot price threatens one of your short strikes, you probably shouldn’t wait around in this volatile environment. It’s usually better to close the position and take a small loss than to hope for a reversal—hoping can become very expensive!
Conclusion
The market is extremely volatile, and expensive options mean traditional strategies may not work as well as they usually do. Stay cautious, manage risk meticulously, and don’t be afraid to close out losing trades quickly. As always, surviving to trade another day is the most important rule.
BTCUSDT Ranging Bullish.Hi there,
BTCUSDT looks bullish on the M30 chart with two price targets for a bias of 88724.61, which is kept bullish by the 82795.44 support area.
If the price falls below 82191.00, that could potentially invalidate the setup.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not a trading advice
Neutral Stance on XAUUSD: Testing Resistance Hi there,
XAUUSD is currently testing the resistance area at 3017.221. If the price manages to break through this level due to the current bullish pin bar, we might see a test of the 3113.453 area.
However, the price as shown by the indicator suggests that the resistance area is strong, and we may see a push lower to test the break of structure 1, possibly nearing 2921.243, before turning bullish.
Overall, the current trend is bullish, but the market trend is bearish. If the price falls sharply to break (HH1) and forms a lower high below it, then (H) might be broken. If the initial high, the third high from (3), fails to hold, then the trend will reverse.
The current candle bias, however, is neutral or cautious.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not trading advice.
Prepare for LIFTOFF $ADAThe Global Net Liquidity index is breaking out of its multiyear downtrend channel on the back of a weak TVC:DXY dollar. Altcoins like CRYPTO:ADAUSD and other risk assets historically wildly outperform during Global Net Liquidity uptrends and dollar debasement cycles. As the business cycle heats up with ISM Manufacturing PMI ECONOMICS:USBCOI rising above 50, expect altcoins to gain relative strength to CRYPTO:BTCUSD and a Bitcoin Dominance
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D collapse into the 35-45% range.
This is your last chance.
AvalonBay Inc Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Avalon Bay Communities Inc Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* (EMA Settings)) At 205.00 USD | Completed Survey
* (Downtrend Argument)) | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* 0.5 Retracement Area | Short Set Up | Subdivision 2
* (TP1) | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Logarithmic Settings
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 200.00 USD
* Entry At 189.00 USD
* Take Profit At 170.00 USD
* (Downtrend Argument)) & Pattern Confirmation
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Sell
#USDCAD: We took the Swing Sell, Now let's focus on Swing Buy! The USD/CAD exchange rate experienced a significant decline, reaching its all-time high against the USD. This decline is primarily attributed to the ongoing trade dispute between China and the United States, which has led to a depreciation of the USD and resulted in a yearly low.
However, we anticipate a potential reversal in the price trajectory. We identify a favourable area where the price may stabilise and address the liquidity gap it has created.
We have established three targets, and to effectively utilise these targets, we recommend executing small entries with each target set based on a predetermined take-profit level.
We extend our sincere gratitude for your unwavering support throughout this journey within this community. Additionally, we appreciate the contributions of each individual who has supported our endeavours. We are pleased to announce that we have garnered 20,000 followers.
Much Love,
Team Setupsfx_
❤️🚀
BANKNIFTYBanknifty levels are based on imbalances
1. gapup 51400 long
2. 51400-51000 trade breakout
3. gapdown 51000 short
NIFTYNifty levels are based on imbalances
1. gapup 23000 long
2. 23000-22825 trade breakout
3. gapdown 22825 short
Short trade
15min ~TF overview
📉 Trade Breakdown – Sell-Side (EUR/GBP)
📅 Date: Thursday, April 10, 2025
⏰ Time: 12:30 PM (NY Time) – NY Session AM
📈 Pair: EUR/GBP
🧭 Direction: Short (Sell)
📐 Structure/Concept: Based on PD Array reference (0.5 Target)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 0.86418
Take Profit (TP): 0.86102 (–0.37%)
Stop Loss (SL): 0.86609 (+0.22%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 1.65
Reason: price reaching a pivotal price level and making a higher high (NY Session) suggests an indication of a sellside trade idea.
AUDUSD SELL 4 HOUR TIME FRAMESTRONG SUPPLY ZONE
Fair value gaps to fill
Amazing Range
5:89 Risk Reward, Let's See!
JASMY ANALYSIS (1D)Before anything else, you should know that this token is on Binance’s Red List (at risk of being delisted) and carries its own specific risks.
After entering a corrective phase, JASMY is now approaching a FLIP zone.
From this level, we expect upward volatility for JASMY.
Targets are marked on the chart.
A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Silver in Q1 2025: Technical and Fundamental BreakdownIntroduction
Silver has emerged as a standout among precious metals in Q1 2025, delivering solid gains amid choppy markets. While gold grabs headlines with its record highs, silver quietly notched a 17% rise since January, showcasing its dual role as an industrial staple and a safe-haven for traders. In this article, we dive into silver’s price action, the impact of tariffs, recession risks, and supply-demand dynamics to uncover trading opportunities.
Silver’s Price Action in Q1
Silver closed 2024 at $28.94 per ounce (December 30) but kicked off 2025 with a strong rebound. Starting at $29.53 (January 2), it cleared the $30 mark by January 7 and ended the month at $31.28. February kept the momentum alive, hitting a high of $32.94 (February 20) before settling at $31.13. March pushed further, breaking $32 on March 5 and reaching a quarterly peak of $34.43 on March 27. However, April brought a pullback: prices dipped to $33.67 on April 1 and briefly fell below $30 after U.S. tariff announcements on April 2.
Technical Analysis
• Support and Resistance Levels: Support has formed around $29.50, with resistance near $34.50. The $30 level has toggled between support and resistance, acting as a key pivot.
• Moving Averages: Prices remain above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling a bullish trend.
• RSI: The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 65, suggesting room for upside before hitting overbought territory.
Tariffs: Volatility as a Trading Edge
Since early 2025, U.S. tariff policies have fueled market uncertainty. The announcement of a 10% global tariff, alongside targeted duties on April 2, drove traders toward safe-haven assets like silver.
• Market Impact: Tariffs could dampen industrial demand (e.g., in solar panels and EVs), but silver’s safe-haven appeal may offset this pressure.
• Trading Idea: Volatility creates setups for short-term trades. Breakouts or range-bound strategies using options can capitalize on current conditions.
Recession Risks: A Dual Impact
The looming threat of a U.S. recession continues to shape market sentiment. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast of -2.8% for Q1 2025, ahead of official data on April 30, has heightened concerns.
• Historical Context: During recessions, silver’s performance varies. Industrial slowdowns can curb demand, but capital flows into safe assets often bolster prices.
• Current Outlook: If recession fears intensify, silver could draw attention as a gold alternative. However, a confirmed downturn risks hitting industrial sectors, so keep an eye on macro releases.
Supply and Demand: Deficit as a Bullish Driver
The Silver Institute’s March 3 report flagged a fifth consecutive year of supply shortages, tightening the market.
• Industrial Demand: Solar panels (232 million ounces annually) and electric vehicles (80 million ounces) remain major consumers. Watch for updates from these sectors, as production shifts could sway prices.
• Supply Constraints: Reports of physical silver moving from UK vaults to New York, possibly in anticipation of tariffs, hint at a potential crunch within six months.
Outlook: Short-Term and Long-Term Views
A near-term consolidation or pullback is possible after Q1’s strong rally. The $29-$30 zone looks like a solid buying opportunity, especially if prices find support at the 50-day moving average.
• Technical Setup: A break above $34.50 could target $37-$38. RSI suggests the rally has legs.
• Trading Strategy: Consider buying dips to $30 with a stop below $28, aiming for $35. Alternatively, enter on a breakout above $34.50 for higher targets.
• Long-Term Trend: Supply deficits and silver’s role in green energy support a bullish case. Still, macro factors like interest rates and the dollar call for adaptability.
Conclusion
In 2025, silver remains a focal point for traders, driven by a mix of technical strength and fundamental catalysts. Tariffs, recession risks, and supply dynamics create a complex but opportunity-rich environment. Leverage technical analysis and stay tuned to newsflow to navigate volatility and tap into silver’s long-term potential.
#USDCAD: Two Big Target Accumulating of 800+ Pips! **USDCAD **
Following the US President’s decision to impose a 25% tariff rate on Canada, the USD/CAD exchange rate experienced a significant surge, reaching approximately 1.49. However, as the market has stabilised, we anticipate a gradual decline in the exchange rate, which may help bridge the liquidity gap.
Two prominent red lines serve as potential entry and stop-loss points. Additionally, two designated targets are set as swing take-profit areas.
We appreciate your unwavering support. Should you have any inquiries regarding the strategy or any trading-related questions, please do not hesitate to provide feedback.
Team Setupsfx_
