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Supply and Demand

THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: A very good end to the week on Gold with the level we wanted holding, the long into resistance working well and then the RIP from that level into the lower levels we wanted completing KOG's bias level targets for the day. We're now at a crucial level coming up to the close of the weekly candle and there is likely to be a late session fight for the close. Resistance now stands at the red box 3020-24 with support below at 3010 which may need a further push up into resistance to come back and break. In any case, we're done for the day and the week, no more gold trading into the close. Wishing you all a great weekend ahead, and we'll see you on Sunday for the KOG Report and our view for the week ahead. This week on gold below: KOG’s bias for the week: Bearish below 2995 with targets below 2970, 2965, 2955 and below that 2950 Bullish on break of 2995 with targets above 3003✅, 3006✅, 3010✅, 3016✅ and above that 3020✅ RED BOXES: Break above 2995 for 2997✅, 3003✅, 3009✅, 3016✅ and 3021✅ in extension of the move Break below 2980 for 2975, 2971, 2965, 2959, 2955 and 2945 in extension of the move As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
7
XRP Jumps 7% After Surge in Network Activity & Whale BuyingXRP, the digital asset associated with Ripple Labs, has recently experienced a notable price surge, climbing approximately 7% amidst a flurry of on-chain activity and substantial whale accumulation.1 This resurgence has reignited discussions within the crypto community regarding XRP's potential for further growth, particularly in light of a significant uptick in active addresses and evolving regulatory landscapes. The recent price movement follows a period of relatively stagnant performance, prompting analysts to scrutinize the underlying factors driving the renewed interest in XRP. A key catalyst appears to be the dramatic increase in network activity, with active addresses reaching their highest level since April 2023.2 This surge in transactional volume suggests a heightened level of engagement and utility within the XRP ecosystem, potentially indicating growing adoption and demand. Furthermore, reports of significant whale accumulation have fueled speculation that large-scale investors are positioning themselves for a potential price rally. These whales, often possessing substantial market influence, are known for their ability to trigger price movements through strategic buying and selling activities.3 Their recent accumulation of XRP suggests a strong conviction in the asset's future prospects.4 The combination of increased network activity and whale buying has created a bullish sentiment among many XRP holders. However, the question remains: will this surge in activity translate into sustained price appreciation? While the current momentum appears promising, several factors could influence XRP's trajectory in the coming weeks and months. One of the most significant factors influencing XRP's price is the ongoing regulatory landscape, particularly concerning the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple Labs.5 While a partial victory was achieved in the summer of 2023, the SEC's case is not fully resolved. The ongoing legal battle has cast a shadow over XRP's price for several years, creating uncertainty and hindering its potential for wider adoption. Recently, analysts have begun speculating that the SEC may ultimately drop its four-year lawsuit against Ripple Labs, citing the potential for a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under a potential Trump administration. This perspective suggests that the market may have already "priced in" the expectation of a favorable resolution, given the potential for significant policy shifts. The notion that the SEC's actions were anticipated based on potential political shifts adds another layer of complexity to XRP's price dynamics. The argument suggests that market participants have been anticipating a change in regulatory stance, leading to a gradual accumulation of XRP in anticipation of a favorable outcome. If this proves accurate, the recent price surge could represent the beginning of a more sustained upward trend. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the regulatory landscape remains fluid and subject to change. While a Trump administration might usher in a more lenient approach to cryptocurrency regulation, there is no guarantee that the SEC will definitively drop its lawsuit. The legal proceedings could continue, potentially leading to further volatility and uncertainty. Beyond the regulatory environment, XRP's price is also influenced by broader market trends and investor sentiment.6 The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and sudden shifts in sentiment can significantly impact asset prices.7 Therefore, even with positive developments in network activity and whale accumulation, XRP's price could still be affected by external factors. The utility of XRP within the Ripple ecosystem also plays a crucial role in its long-term price potential. Ripple Labs has positioned XRP as a bridge currency for cross-border payments, aiming to facilitate faster and cheaper transactions.8 The adoption of XRP by financial institutions and payment providers could significantly increase its demand and drive its price higher. However, widespread adoption has been hindered by the regulatory uncertainty surrounding XRP. As the legal battle with the SEC progresses, potential partners may hesitate to integrate XRP into their operations. A favorable resolution could remove this barrier, paving the way for wider adoption and increased utility. In conclusion, XRP's recent 7% price jump, fueled by a surge in network activity and whale buying, reflects a renewed interest in the digital asset.9 While the potential for a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under a potential Trump administration has fueled speculation of a favorable resolution to the SEC lawsuit, the legal landscape remains uncertain. The increase in active addresses to the highest level since April 2023 indicates a growing level of engagement and utility within the XRP ecosystem.10 Coupled with significant whale accumulation; these factors suggest a potential for further price appreciation. However, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the ongoing regulatory uncertainty require a cautious approach. Ultimately, XRP's long-term price potential will depend on a combination of factors, including regulatory clarity, broader market trends, and the continued adoption of its utility within the Ripple ecosystem. While the recent surge provides a glimmer of optimism, investors should remain vigilant and consider the various factors that could impact XRP's future performance.
by bryandowningqln
2.5 reasons to not buy crypto todayLet me be clear - I am BULLISH on crypto! But for your wallet's sake, be patient! All (most) crypto investors want to be millionaires by next week on XRP and the like. I won't argue whether you will be or not - but please just give yourself a better entry! Maybe we pop again before falling, maybe we never fall again, but with the broader markets in a bad place, we have every reason to dip further for more liquidity. For months I've been spitting out this same video in longer form and I simply wanted to show here, in the most basic way possible, why the crypto market wants to come down further. There are SO MANY BUYERS down below! If BTC wants to hit $1MM, ETH $10K and XRP $200, then we will need the liquidity that is sitting below to get there. We will need to shake out the last few that are holding crappy positions near ATH's and reload with larger institutional $. The past few months in crypto have taught me an incredible lesson about patience because though my analysis has been telling me to wait, wait, wait, I am tempted every day to buy. And I'm not - instead I've been trusting my analysis and intuition and have been shorting BTC futures every chance I get. Hope this helps someone to NOT BUY crypto today! Happy Trading :)
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by ReigningTrades
The Simplicity of The Algorithms! Love this chart & patternThis short but sweet video clip says it all for me. The market repeats itself - if it repeats algorithms (which I've proven over and over again), then the subsequent movement repeats itself too. I don't mean to make this look easy because obviously it's one thing to analyze something that's happened and "might happen" in the future - but to actually trade it is very difficult. Because even though we have the keys to the market, it will do everything it can to think we're wrong and don't know what we're doing. It will trick you into selling early, sizing up too soon, getting in too early, etc. Reach out with any questions, comments, or thoughts! Happy Trading :)
NASDAQ:WBDLong
by ReigningTrades
German $DAX ($EWG) Topping Out?Originally posted on 3/12, but blocked b/c I referenced my X account. Looks like a bearish move could be materializing alongside broader risk asset weakness: Is the XETR:DAX topping out? Monthly RSI @ 80+ w/ weekly nosing over and daily bearish divergences observable. Index high from 3/6 coincided with the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the 11/2021-10/2022 uptrend correction. Confirmation short setup could materialize $FDAX closes below pivot low of the 1D uptrend (22226), bounces off of short-term demand (ex: 22142-21691, and trades into supply ≥ 22226. This scenario is speculative - the market needs to show its hand. Presently, DAX is up > 1.5% alongside US stocks, which dipped into intermediate-term demand and benefited from softer-than-expected CPI prints. However, DAX (and domestic) bulls haven't proven anything yet. Unless buyers manage to push the DAX higher - initially above 22900 and secondarily through 23000-23200 - on accelerating momentum, risk remains to the downside (IMO). German stocks have been global relative strength leaders as of late, so if they do correct, other equity indexes may retreat in tandem. Long-term charts for US indices ( SP:SPX , NASDAQ:NDX , TVC:RUT ) look more bearish vs. bullish (I still have some shorts on), though a near-term recovery is plausible. If domestic equities do trade lower, selling could materialize in Asian and European markets. Use LTF charts to monitor price action/manage risk and splice into shorts if German stocks AMEX:EWG start to crack. My $0.02. Feedback welcome. Jon
XETR:DAXShort
by JHartCharts
2
CELH - I Digress! Still very bullish on this chartAs you see from all my linked CELH videos below, I've been watching this and playing this name for the past few months considering the PA and strength of this company (in relation to where it's being valued atm). Could have kept this video much shorter by simply showing the supply & demand battle that's been going on above us. Mainly the supply levels at $34 (HTF) and $31 (LTF). Love the flow and natural market movements that we've been seeing on this undervalued name and I will be continuing to add to my position in the $28/$29 range if given the opportunity. Breakout of our LTF supply highlighted in this video is huge for our push to break the HTF $34 supply. Happy Trading :)
NASDAQ:CELHLong
by ReigningTrades
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: Unfortunately our level of interest for the short didn't work out as we had hoped, instead Excalibur kept activating long and there was no sign of a reversal, so we continued with the bias target levels which as all but one now complete. Hopefully if you followed the bias levels shared you will have also stayed in the right direction. Now, issue is where the price is stalling, 3030 support and 3035 resistance creating an order region while sentiment is extremely tipped to one side. For that reason, we're only looking for one move here if we don't pull back into the 3020 region. Above is 3040-45 which if targeted and held, we may test the short trade early session, but note, it's FOMC tomorrow, we can't expect a complete u-turn here, it will only likely be a short capture before we start seeing that pre-event price action. Not much more to report other than the above, and below the targets active and completed. KOG’s Bias of the day: Bullish above 3010 with targets above 3030✅ and above that 3035✅ Bearish on break of 3010 with targets below 2997 and below that 2995 RED BOXES: Break above 3035 for 3038✅, 3045 and 3050 in extension of the move Break below 3020 for 3010, 3006 and 2998 in extension of the move KOG’s bias for the week: Bearish below 2995 with targets below 2970, 2965, 2955 and below that 2950 Bullish on break of 2995 with targets above 3003✅, 3006✅, 3010✅, 3016✅ and above that 3020✅ RED BOXES: Break above 2995 for 2997✅, 3003✅, 3009✅, 3016✅ and 3021✅ in extension of the move Break below 2980 for 2975, 2971, 2965, 2959, 2955 and 2945 in extension of the move As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
THE KOG REPORT - Update End of day update form us here at KOG: We'll stick with the FOMC plan where we wanted this to tap into that 3050-55 region and give us a potential RIP. After a few attempts at breaking it gold failed and gave us the move we wanted back down into the lower level where we protected and managed trades. For now, due to the range and accumulation, we will keep an eye on the immediate levels and wait for Excalibur to confirm the direction. Until then, nice trade from above, another entry came from 3040 which was todays' bias below level completing at the red box. Friday tomorrow, so we'll take it easy and only if there is a decent set up will we get involved with Gold. Todays super star trade was DOW and BTC. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
15
Uranium Prices and Nuclear Expansion-What Investors Need to KnowThe Growth of Nuclear Power and the Unexpected Decline in Uranium Prices The global nuclear energy sector is experiencing a period of expansion, with new reactors being built and older facilities having their operational lifespans extended. Countries across Asia, Europe, and North America are prioritizing nuclear power as a means of achieving energy security and meeting decarbonization targets. Despite this, the price of uranium ( FX:URANIUM )-a critical fuel for nuclear reactors-has faced a significant decline, raising questions about the market’s structural inefficiencies and long-term outlook. At its peak in early 2024, uranium’s spot price surged to $106 per pound, driven by supply constraints, geopolitical concerns, and rising demand expectations. However, since then, the market has seen a correction, with spot prices falling by approximately 40%, now hovering around $65 per pound. In contrast, long-term uranium contracts have remained relatively stable in the range of $55-$60 per pound, reflecting a disconnection between short-term market sentiment and the fundamental growth in nuclear energy capacity. Meanwhile, global uranium consumption is projected to increase from 180 million pounds in 2023 to nearly 210 million pounds by 2030, further highlighting the disconnect between demand growth and current price trends. Understanding the Unique Structure of the Uranium Market Unlike oil ( MARKETSCOM:OIL ) or natural gas ( CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS ), uranium does not trade on a highly liquid, real-time global market. Most uranium transactions occur through long-term supply agreements between mining companies and utilities, often spanning a decade or more. As a result, price volatility in the spot market has limited impact on the bulk of uranium supply contracts. The uranium supply chain is also more complex than that of traditional fossil fuels. The process involves multiple stages, including mining, conversion, enrichment, and fabrication before the fuel is ready for use in reactors. Any disruption at one of these stages-whether due to logistical constraints or geopolitical tensions-can lead to localized supply shortages without immediately affecting global pricing dynamics. Geopolitical Uncertainty and Supply Chain Constraints Geopolitics plays a crucial role in the uranium market, with recent developments influencing both supply and demand. The U.S. has imposed restrictions on Russian uranium imports, aiming to reduce reliance on a key supplier. However, this move has contributed to market uncertainty, as the U.S. currently lacks sufficient domestic production to fully replace Russian uranium in the near term. Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium producer, accounts for nearly 43% of global supply, making its production levels a key factor in market stability. However, logistical hurdles, including transport routes through Russia, present challenges for international buyers. Meanwhile, Canada and African nations are increasing their uranium production, but bringing new supply online is a lengthy process due to regulatory and operational constraints. Canada’s Cameco, one of the largest uranium producers, has faced production shortfalls, revising its 2024 output estimates from 18 million pounds to 16 million pounds, further tightening supply expectations. Can Demand Eventually Outpace Supply? As the number of nuclear reactors grows, the long-term fundamentals for uranium appear strong. Countries such as China and India are aggressively expanding their nuclear fleets, with China alone planning to construct 150 new reactors by 2050, requiring substantial increases in uranium procurement. Meanwhile, existing plants in the U.S. and Europe are securing multi-year fuel contracts to ensure stability, with the U.S. government recently committing $2.7 billion to support domestic uranium enrichment capabilities. Despite this, the impact on uranium prices remains subdued due to strategic stockpiling and the slow-moving nature of the supply chain. In 2023, utilities purchased nearly 125 million pounds of uranium under long-term contracts, signaling strong future demand, yet the spot market remains under pressure due to speculative trading and short-term oversupply concerns. The question remains: will uranium prices experience a sustained recovery? If new mining projects fail to come online quickly enough to meet demand, supply shortages could emerge, creating upward price pressure. For now, the market remains in a state of correction, balancing short-term volatility against long-term structural growth. Further Outlook: A Market in Transition The current price correction may offer a long-term entry point for those who believe in nuclear power’s role in the global energy mix. However, the market’s unique structure means that speculative trading in uranium requires a deep understanding of long-term supply agreements and geopolitical risks. The nuclear sector is poised for sustained expansion, yet uranium pricing remains caught between near-term market fluctuations and the realities of long-cycle supply contracts. As global energy needs shift, the uranium market will continue to evolve, presenting new dynamics for traders, utilities, and policymakers alike.
COMEX:UX1!
by igorisaev
UPDATE ON GBP/JPY TRADEGBP/JPY 30M - Our pending order was just missed late last night, as you can see price didn't quite come down enough to trade into the 50% mark our Demand Zone. Did any of you Asian Session traders manage to get in manually? I know those of you who are in the UK and Europe probably didn't hence the pending order. The trade above ran for + 84 pips. (+5%) 5RR The potential profits from this trade here could have been great for those of you who entered in manually, understandably those of you who typically trade the London and NY probably missed it just like I did. Nevertheless I wanted to provide you all with the trading opportunity and update you all on how it performed over night, well done to any of you who got in manually based on the penetration and rejection.
Long
by Lukegforex
XAU/USD 21 March 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Price has printed a bearish CHoCH following printing further all time highs. Price is now trading within an established internal range. I will however continue to monitor price. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or nested Daily and H4 demand levels before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,057.590. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. You will note how price has mitigated M15 demand zones at the extreme of strong internal low. The remainder of my analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 19 March 2025. Price has continued to surge to new all time highs, largely fuelled by geopolitical tensions, gold is solidifying itself as a safe haven asset. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH to confirm internal structure. Intraday Expectation: Price has mitigated M15 demand zone. Technically price should target weak internal high priced at 3,057.590. Alternative scenario: You will note internal range has significantly narrowed. All HTF's require a pullback, therefore, it would be completely viable if price printed a bearish iBOS. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK