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Supply and Demand

STOP LOSS HUNTING STRATEGY 8.8% OR 10% REWARDSHORT AT STATISTICAL STOP LOSS FROM MAJORITY Will short at where most put their stop loss. This strategy is valid for me because this forex pair is indicating a bearish sentiment and the strongest ever recorded. But there is no previous statistics on such a price action. So I will short your stop loss which is around 160-167 (Aggressive account) and 170.5 (Buy and hold account). I have no believe in a bearish continuation beyon that, it will just carry on going bullish and I'm not interested into shorting or buying this premium as it was bullish for decades and will not offer an exit strategy and/or a decent Stop Loss size Factors of confluence: - Anchored VWAP 0.618 above - Monthly SIBI Fair Value Gap acting as strong resistance - Previous POC levels Take Profit: - EMA200 Weekly chart - Previous Fair Value Gap level - Previous Month POC of June 2023 that hasn't been retested and had a strong bullish candle - Quarterly Q1 Pivot Support Levels
Short
by Autistic-Machine
1
Fossil Fuels vs. Clean Energy: The Market Transformation in 2025The global energy market is set for a significant transformation in 2025, driven by oversupply in fossil fuels, rapid advancements in renewable energy, and structural shifts across major economies. Technologically advanced nations are actively increasing electricity consumption while reducing reliance on traditional hydrocarbons, both for economic and environmental reasons. For investors, these developments present both challenges and opportunities. While oversupply in oil and gas may raise concerns, savvy investors can leverage emerging trends to position themselves strategically. Oil Market: Stability Amid Structural Challenges According to EIA forecasts, Brent crude prices BLACKBULL:BRENT are expected to reach $74 per barrel in 2025, largely due to oversupply and subdued demand. While oil remains a crucial commodity and financial tool, its strategic importance is waning as nations shift toward cleaner energy alternatives. Rising production costs are another challenge, particularly for operations in complex extraction environments. Oil production costs vary widely, ranging from $15 to $50 per barrel, depending on deposit type and logistical factors. This cost disparity constrains price growth potential, as only low-cost producers remain competitive. Additionally, geopolitical risks—including sanctions and regional conflicts—could create short-term price volatility. However, absent major disruptions, oil prices are projected to remain in the $70–$80 range, benefiting both producers and consumers. The Strategic Role of Liquefied Natural Gas CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS (LNG) The natural gas market mirrors many challenges of the oil sector, with rising production, logistical constraints, and moderate infrastructure development limiting large-scale expansion. The Permian Basin in the U.S. holds surplus gas reserves, but building new pipelines remains costly and slow. A notable factor shaping the gas market is monetary policy shifts. Recent interest rate cuts by major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have positively impacted the broader commodities sector. Lower borrowing costs encourage investment in refinery upgrades and LNG export terminal expansion, strengthening the role of natural gas in the global energy transition. By 2025, LNG will play a pivotal role in energy security, particularly in Europe, where diversification away from Russian gas remains a priority. The banning of Russian LNG exports and reduced gas transit through Ukraine have already led to regional price fluctuations, influencing global markets. Nuclear Energy: A Resurgent Player in 2025 With the rapid growth in electricity demand, fueled by data centers, artificial intelligence, and cryptocurrency mining, nuclear power is set to regain prominence as a reliable baseload energy source. Despite longstanding concerns about safety and capital costs, nuclear energy offers a highly stable power supply. Governments worldwide recognize its role in ensuring energy security while reducing reliance on fossil fuels. New technological advancements, particularly Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), are reshaping the nuclear landscape. These compact reactors promise enhanced safety, improved efficiency, and lower construction costs, making nuclear energy a more accessible option for various economies. Renewable Energy: Strong Growth but Structural Challenges Solar and wind energy continue to experience rapid adoption, particularly in Europe. Solar energy remains the fastest-growing power source, largely due to its declining costs and favorable environmental impact. Between 2010 and 2020, the cost of solar power fell by 82% , making it one of the most cost-effective energy solutions available today. In 2025, the average cost of a solar installation is estimated at $19,000 ($3 per watt) before subsidies. However, scaling renewable energy presents challenges, including: • Grid modernization requirements to handle intermittent energy flows. • Government incentives still necessary to support long-term profitability. • Development of hydrogen infrastructure as a complementary energy solution. With falling interest rates, investment in renewable projects is expected to rise, facilitating further growth. How Investors Can Navigate the Energy Transition Amid uncertainty, diversification remains a key strategy. Investors should consider exposure to traditional fossil fuels, LNG infrastructure, and renewable energy companies to balance risk. Additionally, geopolitical volatility and regulatory changes require strong risk management. Infrastructure investments—particularly in hydrogen technology, smart grids, and energy storage—offer attractive opportunities as governments and corporations modernize energy systems. Final Thoughts The energy sector in 2025 will be defined by oversupply in fossil fuels, rising investment in renewables, and the increasing role of LNG and nuclear energy. Investors, who closely follow market trends, policy developments, and technological advancements will be well-positioned to capitalize on this, just like always, evolving landscape.
NASDAQ:NQG60
by igorisaev
EURSEK at Key Support Zone: Bullish Rebound ExpectedOANDA:EURSEK has reached a significant support zone, marked by prior price rejections and strong buying pressure. This area has historically acted as a key demand zone, indicating the potential for a pullback if buyers regain control. The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms a rejection from this support zone, there is a high likelihood of an upward move. I anticipate that if rejection occurs, the market may head higher toward the 11.33450 level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure. This setup reflects the potential for a retracement after an impulsive move, supported by the confluence of previous price behavior and the current structure. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Long
by DanieIM
EURUSD Technical Forecast on NFP 07.02.2025Overall Trend & Context: The EURUSD pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and has recently been consolidating on the lower times. Fundamental Considerations for the NFP: Consensus Forecast (High Probability) - Most analysts forecast a gain in the 169K–170K range, which lines up with recent trends. A neutral result would suggest that the labor market is still solid. Stronger-than-Expected Outcome (Medium Probability) - If the report comes in well above consensus (eg: above 190K jobs), it could reinforce expectations for a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. Weaker-than-Expected Outcome (Low Probability) - A result below expectations (eg: fewer than 135K jobs) might trigger a reassessment of the US economic outlook, we will need to watch the markets and prepare for dynamic shifts. Technical Findings: Weekly - Bearish and trading well below EMA's. Daily - Bearish & showing signs of 25 EMA rejection. Previous distribution is holding price at bay. 4 Hour - Strong supply levels holding and trading below the 200 EMA. 1 Hour - Close to overbought levels and LTF distribution is holding. Important Notes: DXY is at a previous demand which proved to be a challenge to break through in the past. GBPUSD & EURUSD can have variations in the short term correlation but the technicals both align, which reinforces our EURUSD narrative. USDJPY technicals remain bullish on the long term however, the short term is in a downtrend and has reached a daily demand - we could potentially see a bullish reaction from here (based on DXY strength and the negative correlation with EURUSD) Potential Scenarios & Probabilities: If the lows at 1.03800 fail we may need to adjust our entry zones based on where liquidity and supply are found. If price reaches the weaker supply level closer to the release of the NFP we can enter, however there is a chance we could get stuck in some drawdown if supply isn't strong enough to push through. HIGH PROFILE NEWS RELEASES ARE DOUBLE EDGED IF YOU'RE NOT CAREFUL. YOU DO NOT NEED TO BASE YOUR ENTIRE TRADING CAREER ON IT. STAY OUT IF YOU'RE NOT COMFORTABLE TRADING NEWS. AS TRADERS, YOUR PRIMARY JOB IS TO PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL - WITHOUT CAPITAL YOU CAN'T MAKE ANY MOVES. Trade smart. Hope you all make money if you're trading today! Apex out! OANDA:EURUSD FX:EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD OANDA:USDJPY TVC:DXY OANDA:GBPUSD PEPPERSTONE:GBPUSD FX:USDJPY
Short
by Apexfx_Alpha
GBPUSD - Analysis and Potential Setups (Intraday- 10.02.25)Overall Trend & Context: The OANDA:GBPUSD pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and lower time frames are in alignment. Technical Findings: Price broke below all EMA's - is now consolidating below. Keep an eye on LTF supply levels between 1.24635 - 1.24530 (within 4h supply). Bullish price action appears inherently weaker against the bears. Potential Scenarios: For now I will only be considering shorts. Trade is active at 1.24150.
Short
by Apexfx_Alpha
THOUGHTS ON EUR/NZDEUR/NZD 15M - As you can see price is trading down and into a FVG I have marked out, this is after we have seen price trade down and into a higher timeframe Demand Zone. We are also seeing price accumulate from this higher timeframe Demand Zone. In order for me to look to buy into this market now I want to see rejection to the upside, giving us the confluence to buy. This as we know would help confirm the turn around in price as we should start to see higher highs and higher lows forming, this would be our newest protected low within this new bullish structure. For those who want to be pre-emptive you could look to place a long now, just be aware that doing that holds more risk as we are yet to have confirmation of a new trend to the upside, this will come from the BOS to the upside that we would want to see on the 15M.
Long
by Lukegforex
USDJPY at Key Support - Potential Buying OpportunityOANDA:USDJPY is inside a support zone, which has been a turning point for bullish move before. The recent bearish pressure brings the price into this area, creating a potential buying opportunity. If bullish signals emerge, such as strong buying volume or bullish candlestick patterns, I expect the price to move toward 152,750. However, a break below this support would invalidate the bullish bias and could lead to further declines. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management!
Long
by TrendDiva
3
GBP/USD: Selling into the reboundThe setup is similar in EUR/USD & GBP/USD - because of the dollar in both major pairs! The GBP price is testing the broken uptrend line on the weekly- and could break above it. On the daily chart, a downtrend line has already broken and so has critical resistance at 1.25, suggesting a break above the weekly uptrend line Should the breakout follow-through it faces resistance at 1.28 from the December high and 30 week (150 day) moving average. However, should the breakout fail - it sets up a likely continuation of the longer term downtrend.
Short
by jasperlawler
2