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Supply and Demand

WIF ANALYSIS (2H)After pumping, changing CH, and clearing a supply zone, the price is now pulling back to lower order blocks. In the lower zone, there is an overlap between the flip line and the QM level, which appears to be a strong area. Additionally, the upper order blocks have been consumed, and if the price intends to continue its upward movement, there are no significant sell orders ahead. Targets are marked on the chart. A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
1
EURUSD 17-21 Feb 2025 W8 - Weekly Analysis -EU ZEW - US FOMC/PMIThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 17-21 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart AnalysisDaily Chart Analysis4H Chart AnalysisEconomic Events for the WeekRelated PostsLatest Weekly Analysis Market Sentiment Inflation Data Mix U.S. CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected, signaling lingering inflation pressures. However, softer underlying PPI components linked to the Fed’s preferred PCE metric raised hopes for a moderation in inflation next week. Fed Policy Expectations Investors are cautiously optimistic about potential Fed rate cuts later in 2025, despite the Fed’s current "wait-and-see" stance. A softer PCE report next week could solidify bets on easing monetary policy, supporting risk assets like the Euro. Trump’s Tariff Strategy Markets dismissed Trump’s reciprocal tariff threats as negotiation tactics rather than a prelude to a trade war. Investors expect delays in implementation, reducing immediate fears of economic disruption. Geopolitical Optimism Progress in Ukraine-Russia peace talks (e.g., territory swap discussions) eased global risk aversion, weakening the USD’s safe-haven appeal. Reduced geopolitical tensions benefit the Eurozone economy, indirectly lifting the Euro. Central Bank Divergence The ECB may cut rates further in 2025, but improving Eurozone data and reduced trade-war risks provide short-term EUR support. The Fed’s cautious tone limits USD upside, creating a balanced tug-of-war. Short-Term Bias Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. This balance of factors suggests choppy but upward-leaning trading for EUR/USD. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous weeks analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after volatile week. 🔹With the previous week solid Bullish close, the Demand did hold and there is a high probability that price could continue Bullish to facilitate the INT structure pullback phase. 🔹If price to continue Bullish, price will be targeting the liquidity above Dec 2024, INT Structure EQ (50%) at 1.06933 to target the Weekly Supply in premium before continuing down to target the Weak INT Low. 🔹Expectations is for price to continue Bullish if it managed to break 1.05333 27 Jan High to facilitate the INT structure pullback. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH. 🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase. 🔹Previous week I mentioned “if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm”. And with that happened I’d shifted to Bullish expectation and there is expectations of a deep pullback within the Daily Bearish INT structure. 🔹The expected targets for the current bullish move is 1st to sweep the liquidity above the equal highs (17 Dec & 27 Jan) 2nd Break of the Strong INT High to facilitate the Daily Bearish Swing pullback and the Weekly Bearish INT pullback. 🔹Currently Supply is failing and Demand is holding confirms the short-term Bullish scenario and setting my expectations for continuing Bullish. Price could pullback to the recent Daily Demand before continuing Bullish. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
Stepwise Distribution: How "Big Boys" Unload an Asset (Gold Ex.)In financial markets, price movements are not always the result of simple supply and demand dynamics. Large investors—hedge funds, market makers, and institutional traders—use advanced techniques to enter and exit positions without causing drastic market reactions. One such strategy is stepwise distribution, a method through which they gradually sell off assets while the price still appears to be rising. What Is Stepwise Distribution? Stepwise distribution is a process where large players liquidate their positions gradually, preventing panic or a sudden price drop. The goal is to attract retail buyers, maintaining the illusion of a bullish trend until all institutional positions are offloaded. S tages of Stepwise Distribution 1. Markup Phase - Institutions accumulate the asset at low prices. - Retail traders are drawn in by the uptrend and start buying. - The bullish trend is strong, supported by increasing volume. 2. Hidden Distribution - The price continues rising, but large players begin selling in increments. - Volume increases, yet price movements become smaller. - Fake breakouts appear—price breaches a resistance level but quickly reverses. 3. The Final Trap (Bull Trap) - One last price surge attracts even more retail buyers. - Smart money finalizes unloading their positions. - Retail traders get trapped in long positions, expecting the trend to continue. 4. Final Breakdown - After institutions have fully exited, the price begins to fall. - Liquidity dries up, leaving retail traders stuck in losing positions. - The pattern confirms itself as lower highs and lower lows start forming. ________________________________________ Stepwise Distribution in Gold: A Recent Example In recent days, Gold prices have shown an interesting example of stepwise distribution. While it does not meet every characteristic of a textbook distribution pattern, market dynamics suggest that large players are offloading their positions in a controlled manner. 1. Technical Structure and Market Perception Manipulation During the last upward leg, support levels were strictly respected, creating the illusion of strong demand. At first glance, this seems like a bullish signal for retail traders. However, in reality: • Big players temporarily halted selling to avoid triggering panic. • They maintained the illusion of strong support to attract more buyers. • Retail traders believed that “smart money” was buying, when in fact institutions were merely waiting for the right moment to finalize distribution. 2. Investor Psychology and How It’s Exploited Human psychology plays a critical role in stepwise distribution. Here’s how different types of traders react: • Retail FOMO traders (Fear of Missing Out) – Seeing Gold approach all-time highs, they aggressively enter long positions, ignoring subtle distribution signals. • Pattern-based traders – Many traders use support levels as buying zones, unaware that these levels are being artificially maintained by institutional traders. • “Buy the Dip” mentality – Each minor pullback is quickly bought up by retail traders, providing liquidity for large investors to sell more. 3. The Critical Moment: Support Break and Market Panic; Friday's drop Eventually, after the distribution is complete, the “strong” support level suddenly breaks. What happens next? • Retail traders’ stop-losses are triggered, accelerating the decline. • A lack of real demand – All buyers have already been absorbed, leaving no liquidity to sustain the price. • Widespread panic – Retail traders who bought during the final surge now start selling at a loss, reinforcing the downward move. Conclusion: Stepwise distribution is not just a technical pattern—it’s a psychological and strategic market operation. In the case of Gold, we observed a controlled distribution where smart money avoided causing panic until they had fully offloaded their positions. If you learn to recognize these signals, you can avoid market traps and gain a better understanding of how large investors maximize their profits while retail traders are left with losing positions. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
23
GBPAUD - Look for Reversal Short (SWING) 1:4!After a strong bullish move, which can be seen as a correction before continuing the HTF downtrend, we've observed a clear confirmation of a triple top on the LTF. This suggests a potential opportunity to ride the trend south. Additionally, the price has been in accumulation for a few days, likely collecting orders within the marked supply zone. Let’s see how the market plays out — hopefully, it triggers our targeted TP1 and TP2. Disclaimer: This is simply my personal technical analysis, and you're free to consider it as a reference or disregard it. No obligation! Emphasizing the importance of proper risk management—it can make a significant difference. Wishing you a successful and happy trading experience!
Short
by S-Fx_
BankNifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 17.02.2025Friday’s session saw BankNifty opening positive, but it failed to hold gains. After touching a high of 49,592.95, it witnessed a sharp decline to 48,719.75 before recovering slightly. It finally closed at 49,099.45, losing 260 points from the previous close. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) remains negative, while the Daily Trend (50 SMA) is sideways, indicating uncertainty in direction. Demand/Support Zones Near Demand/Support Zone (125m): 47,981.35 - 48,319.20 Far Support Level: 46,077.85 (Low of 4th June 2024) Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 44,633.85 - 45,750.40 Supply/Resistance Zones Near Supply/Resistance Zone (75m): 49,276.10 - 49,592.95 Near Supply/Resistance Zone (30m): 49,665.95 - 49,743.15 Far Supply/Resistance Zone (30m): 50,146.10 - 50,248.35 Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 50,485.05 - 51,979.75 (Tested) Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 52,264.55 - 53,775.10 Outlook BankNifty’s failure to sustain gains suggests that sellers remain dominant at higher levels. A break below 48,700 could lead to further weakness toward 48,320 - 47,980 or even 46,000, while a move above 49,750 may bring 50,250 - 51,000 into play.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by PriteshPalan
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 17.02.2025Friday’s session saw Nifty opening with a gap-up, but it failed to sustain the momentum. After hitting a high of 23,133.70, it reversed sharply, making a low of 22,774.85, testing the Daily Demand Zone (22,642.60 - 22,910.15) for the third time. A partial recovery followed, but Nifty still closed at 22,929.25, losing 102 points from the previous close. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) and Daily Trend (50 SMA) remain sideways, signaling indecision. Demand/Support Zones Near Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 22,642.60 - 22,910.15 (Tested multiple times) Far Support Level: 21,281.45 (Low of 4th June 2024) Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 20,769.50 - 20,950 Supply/Resistance Zones Near Supply/Resistance Zone (75m): 23,248.45 - 23,301.75 Near Supply/Resistance Zone (125m): 23,316.30 - 23,409.65 Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 23,443.20 - 23,807.30 Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 23,976 - 24,196.45 Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 24,180.80 - 24,792.30 Outlook Nifty’s repeated tests of the daily demand zone suggest that buyers are still active, but a break below 22,640 - 22,600 could trigger further downside toward 21,281. On the upside, a move above 23,250 - 23,300 could open the door for a push toward 23,800 - 24,000.
NSE:NIFTY
by PriteshPalan
Minimum 9% Buy and hold at 9 year support + Confluence factorsHigh confluence zone gathering POC's of the last few months of 2024 and a Month Fair value gap used as a support for over 10 years. This is a grab for me and its ready by monday as we retest the Q1 Pivot point This EMA200 of a monthly chart is only available since 2018 but is such a wonderful support resistance for many pairs of Forex and we clearly see it happening with two week candles rejecting. I will add to the winner above weekly BISI Fair value gap of Jan 06 at 0.838 after retest and only 1 more position to .81 which is higly risky if we reach .81 But getting down there would be a wreck of the British economy which is a 9 year low
Long
by Autistic-Machine
1
EU long possibilities from around 1.04200 back upMy analysis for EU aligns with my other pairs, as I anticipate a pullback to a stronger demand zone before continuing its bullish pro-trend move. Since price recently reacted bearishly from a supply zone, I expect it to open with a bearish move until it reaches my 3-hour POI, where a potential bullish reversal could take place. Once price reaches my area of interest, I will look for signs of accumulation and a slowdown, which would confirm a buy opportunity. If price pushes higher instead, I have a fresh supply zone above the previously mitigated one, which could act as a point of interest for a potential reaction. Confluences for EU Buys: - Price remains bullish, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. - There is a clean, unmitigated 3-hour demand zone that aligns with my setup. - Liquidity is stacked to the upside, providing targets for the next bullish move. - DXY has been bearish, which supports this bullish EU outlook. P.S. Price action has been clean and structured, and I expect it to move as anticipated toward my marked zones. Stay sharp in these markets, and have a great trading week ahead!
Long
by Hassan_fx
2
GBP.USD Longs from 1.25600 back upI expect GBP/USD to continue its bullish momentum and push higher. Following the previous break of structure, I am looking for price to mitigate the 2-hour demand zone to maintain this upward trend. If price does not react from this level, I have also identified a 3-hour demand zone as a secondary point of interest. If price reacts bullishly from either of these zones, my next selling opportunity will be at the refined 1-hour supply zone around 1.26600. Once price reaches this level, I will look for signs of distribution to confirm a potential short setup. Confluences for GU Buys: - For price to continue higher, it must mitigate a strong demand zone to gain momentum. - Liquidity remains above, providing a natural target for price. - The higher time frame trend is still bullish. - Clean 2-hour, 3-hour, and 11-hour demand zones are in close proximity. - DXY has been bearish, which aligns with this bullish GU outlook. P.S. If price drops instead, I have an extreme discounted zone marked at the 11-hour demand zone at the bottom as a potential long entry.
Long
by Hassan_fx
TOSH/USD Long Setup: OTE + Fake Supply zone reclaimed I've spotted a great long opportunity on TOSH/USD using a combination of advanced market analysis techniques: 1️⃣ Liquidity grab below recent lows, clearing out impatient buyers. 2️⃣ Entry at the OTE zone (Optimal Trade Entry) between 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, a key area for strong rejections. 3️⃣ A fake supply zone has been reclaimed, signaling bullish intent. 🎯 Trade Details: Entry: 0.0006900 (validated in the OTE zone). Context: Liquidity sweep below support followed by a bullish re-entry. Confirmation: Clean reclaim of the fake supply zone with momentum. Stop Loss: Below the last swing low for proper risk management. Take Profits: TP1: Previous Higher High (HH). 🚀 📊 Plan: I’m watching for strong confirmation in the OTE zone and increased volume as the fake supply zone is reclaimed. Risk management is key—position sizing is based on capital and stop-loss placement. This is not financial advice, just my personal setup idea based on market structure. What’s your take? Let me know below! 👇"
COINBASE:TOSHIUSDLong
by theunscriptedacademy
18