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Supply and Demand

BTC Trade Idea — React, Don’t PredictBINANCE:BTCUSD Smart Trading Requires Patience! Bitcoin is currently undergoing a healthy correction. Strong support is located around $87,500, and if confirmed by price action, it could offer a great buying opportunity. Trading without a plan = gambling! ** Alternative Scenario: If the $87,500 level breaks with strong confirmation, after a pullback to this zone, a short opportunity could emerge. Follow us for more professional insights! #CryptoAnalysis #BTCUSD #TradingStrategy #Forex #Cryptocurrency
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by ForexCSP
USDJPY - Analysis and Potential Setups (Intraday- 25.04.25)Overall Trend & Context: This pair is in an overall uptrend and has reacted off the 140.00 support levels (as well as the 200 EMA on the Daily chart). Technical Findings: Price is trading above 25, 50,100 and 200 EMA's on intraday charts. Powerful break of structure which leaves no question about bullish force. Current consolidation - Demand needs to be built before continuation. Notes: Price is currently at a historic support level however has not closed above daily supply, we are still in the area of doing so. Manage your risk, take the trade with confirmations only.
Long
by Apexfx_Alpha
Wheat Market Signals: Trading the US Ending Stocks SurgeThe wheat market is sending mixed signals in April, according to the latest WASDE report. The report, released on April 10, projects US wheat ending stocks at 846 million bushels, up 27 million bushels from the previous estimate, marking a 22% increase year-over-year. Despite this supply increase, the season-average farm price remains steady at $5.50 per bushel. These dynamics may offer some pretty good opportunities to capitalize on short-term price movements in wheat futures. US Wheat Market: A Supply Surge with Stable Prices The WASDE report details a notable shift in the US wheat market for the 2024/25 season. Ending stocks are now projected at 846 million bushels, a 27 million bushel increase from the prior estimate, driven by higher imports and reduced exports. Imports are up 10 million bushels to 150 million, the highest since 2017/18, with increases across Hard Red Spring (HRS), Durum, White, and Hard Red Winter (HRW) classes. Meanwhile, exports are lowered by 15 million bushels to 820 million, reflecting reductions in HRS and HRW shipments due to weaker global demand. Despite this supply buildup, the season-average farm price for wheat remains unchanged at $5.50 per bushel. This price stability suggests a market in balance, but the increased ending stocks—now 22% above last year’s 696 million bushels—introduce bearish pressure. Domestic consumption is slightly down, with seed use reduced by 2 million bushels based on the March NASS Prospective Plantings report, while feed and residual use holds steady at 120 million bushels. Global Context: A Tightening Supply Picture Globally, the wheat market tells a different story. The WASDE report projects 2024/25 world ending stocks at 260.7 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from the prior estimate but still 3% below last year’s 269.06 million tons and the lowest since 2015/16. This decline is driven by reduced production in Saudi Arabia (down 0.3 million tons) and the EU (down 0.2 million tons), as well as lower beginning stocks in Uzbekistan and Israel. Global trade is also down, with exports cut by 1.3 million tons to 206.8 million, primarily due to lower shipments from Russia (down 0.5 million tons), Australia (down 0.4 million tons), and the EU (down 0.3 million tons), only partially offset by increases from Canada and Ukraine. The contrast between rising US stocks and declining global stocks creates a nuanced trading environment. While US oversupply may weigh on prices domestically, the global tightness—especially with stocks at a 9-year low—could provide a bullish counterforce if demand picks up or supply disruptions occur in key exporting regions. Trading Signals and Strategies With US ending stocks surging to 846 million bushels—a 22% year-over-year increase—the immediate outlook leans bearish, as this increased supply typically exerts downward pressure on prices, yet the stable season-average price of $5.50 per bushel indicates a potential support level, reflecting the market’s ability to absorb the supply growth without a price decline. On the global stage, the 260.7 million ton ending stock level, the lowest since 2015/16, introduces a bullish undercurrent, particularly if export demand strengthens in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa or Southeast Asia. Chicago Board of Trade Wheat Futures CBOT:ZW1! are currently trading at $5.476 per bushel, down from a recent high of $5.675, aligning with the bearish setup. A bearish MACD crossover (MACD at 0.32, signal at 0.44) confirms downward momentum as prices have broken below the 50-day moving average resistance at $5.65. A break below $5.45—a level could signal a drop to $5.40, offering a 1% downside. Conversely, for a bullish reversal, holding above $5.45 and breaking through $5.50 with strong volume and a MACD crossover above the signal line could propel prices to $5.675, a 3-4% gain, particularly if export demand rises or weather issues impact key producers. Alternatively, with the recent price action, wheat futures may trade in a range between $5.40 and $5.50 in the near term, allowing traders to buy near $5.40 with a stop-loss below $5.35 and sell near $5.50 with a take-profit at $5.55. Risks to Watch Trading wheat futures carries risks, particularly given the mixed supply signals. On the bearish side, the US ending stock surge to 846 million bushels could lead to further price weakness if domestic demand doesn’t absorb the excess, especially with exports down to 820 million bushels. Looking from the other side of a hand, the global stock tightness at 260.7 million tons introduces upside risk if supply disruptions occur—note the WASDE’s historical data showing a 3.1% root mean square error for world ending stocks, meaning projections can vary by up to 14.5 million tons. Broader market volatility from the US-China trade war could impact commodity prices if recession fears intensify. So, the wheat market in April, as detailed in the WASDE report, presents a dual-natured trading opportunity. US ending stocks surging to 846 million bushels signal bearish pressure, but the global stock decline to a 9-year low of 260.7 million tons offers a bullish counterpoint. With ZW futures at $5.476 per bushel, traders can pursue a bearish setup targeting $5.40 for a 1% downside, a bullish reversal to $5.675 for a 3-4% gain, or a range-bound trade between $5.40 and $5.50.
CAPITALCOM:WHEAT
by juliakhandoshko
CHFJPY – Daily Timeframe (D1) Technical & Fundamental AnalysisCHFJPY – Daily Timeframe (D1) Technical & Fundamental Analysis On the daily timeframe, CHFJPY is currently in a consolidation phase, creating uncertainty in the market following a strong uptrend over the past few weeks. During this period of consolidation, we have identified several key levels that could potentially influence the market direction in the coming days. The major key support level is at 166.600, which serves as a crucial area of interest. If price breaks below this level, it could signal a potential shift in market direction and trigger further downside movement. Within the consolidation range, we also identified minor key levels near the current price: 171.200 – considered our minor key support 172.700 – considered our minor key resistance Our strategy focuses on the current liquidity zone. Since price is moving within this range, we are waiting for a clear formation of liquidity. If this occurs, we anticipate a breakout above the resistance level and will place a Buy Stop entry at 172.870, with: Stop Loss (SL) at 171.430, below the liquidity zone Take Profit (TP) at 176.460, targeting the next minor resistance level Fundamental Insights: Fundamentals Supporting the Swiss Franc (CHF): Strong Economic Data: If Switzerland releases stronger-than-expected economic growth, higher inflation figures, or positive employment data, this could increase investor confidence in the Swiss Franc and drive its value higher against the Yen. Safe-Haven Demand: The Swiss Franc is widely recognized as a safe-haven currency. During periods of global uncertainty or financial market volatility, investors typically seek the CHF for stability. Increased global risk sentiment could push CHF higher versus JPY. Fundamentals Pressuring the Japanese Yen (JPY): Low Interest Rates & Dovish Monetary Policy: The Japanese Yen continues to face pressure due to Japan’s long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy, including low or negative interest rates and the Bank of Japan’s ongoing asset purchase program. Without significant policy tightening, the Yen is likely to remain weak. Economic Headwinds: Any signs of slowing economic growth in Japan—such as disappointing GDP data, rising unemployment, or persistently low inflation—could further weaken the JPY, enhancing the bullish case for CHFJPY. 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. As always, wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage your risk wisely and trade what you see, not what you feel.
Long
by RebornFXTrader
Long trade 1Hr TF overview Trade Overview: GC1! (Gold Futures) – Long Position Entry Price: 3395.9 Profit Target: 3469.0 (+2.21%) Stop Loss: 3311.4 (–0.33%) Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.68 🕕 Entry Time: 6:00 PM 📅 Date: Wednesday, 23rd April 2025 🌍 Session: New York PM ⏱ Entry Timeframe: 5-Minute TF Reasoning Narrative GC1! displayed signs of bullish continuation going into the New York PM session, with price consolidating between 3.325 - 3,319 in a tight range above a recently reclaimed support zone, followed by the breakout.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by davidjulien369