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GBP / USD - DOES IT NEED A CORRECTION?GBP / USD - DOES IT NEED A HEALTHY CORRECTION? My analysis today deals with how the further course of our popular Forex pair "GBP / USD" could look. > The technical analysis and selected indicators, confirm the thesis of an imminent sell-off. = Why, that I explain after the introduction. The DXY / USD has a non-negligible impact on GBP / USD, as the whole economy depends on its behavior, and it directly competes in composition. > Meanwhile, this seems to take a run-up, for a final upswing, which could put the currency pair under massive selling pressure. > Regardless of these selling pressures coming from the USD, GBP / USD has arrived at a very strong support, which suggests a rising price. In the following, the analysis goes into detail, so that the significant levels and areas are known to you. For this purpose, I have performed a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month & week) and thus makes the big picture visible. Normally all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing. > We traders know that no one can predict the future, and that is exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations. > If the DXY should rise again, that means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets. > This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture. > Which levels are RELEVANT, I have explained in detail in the following pages. Table of contents 1st part = INTRODUCTION 2nd part = TECHNICAL ANALYSIS = Monthly - Time frame = Weekly - Time frame 3rd part = CONCLUSION PART ONE "INTRODUCTION" After "GBP/USD" tried to break out of its previously existing downtrend in May|2021, a strong sell-off was subsequently unleashed. > This sell-off extended to September|2022, where we formed our currently existing low. > After this significant low of 1.03565 USD (lowest exchange rate since the existence of the GBP), investors' fears subsided a bit and a massive buying of 20.19%, to 1.21534 USD occurred (in less than 2 months). > Due to this extreme upward movement, we can assume that a correction is overdue. This is needed so that a healthy recapture, an acceptable exchange rate can arise. > In recent weeks, the strong upward movement has stalled a bit, making the correction I expect more and more likely. CONTRA | SELL-OFF = Despite the strong reasons for a sell-off, the price can approach the not yet tested downtrend line, which would be at approx. 1.28 USD. = In addition, the price has regained a sideways trend channel and has respected it so far. PRO | SELL-OFF = The significant Fibonacci level of 0.65 (of the previous upward movement) was reached and tried to be broken twice without success. = The "DAILY" - MACD + RSI - both show divergences, which further strengthens the correction thesis. > Once you look at the DXY (USD index) at the higher time levels, the further sell-off in the traditional markets becomes even more likely. (My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes). SECOND PART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS For the analysis of the higher time levels, I proceed according to the onion-skin principle. > MONTH - level > WEEK - level > DAY - level These are divided into > SUMMARY > CHARTS The charts are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way. (This also refers to Fibonacci levels.) 1st MONTH – Time frame SUMMARY The trend channel shown in the chart, in turquoise, finds its root in 1972 and has been able to maintain itself as a legitimate trend channel since then. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market. > The price is in the area below the mean line and had unsuccessfully challenged it in 2021. The trend channel shown in the chart, in purple, formed since 1976 and represented a hidden sideways channel. > The price is far from the channel and will not provoke a confrontation in the coming months. The trend line drawn in the chart, golden, has its origin in 2007 and proved to be a very strong resistance. > The price challenged this between "early 2021 - to early 2022" unsuccessfully and subsequently experienced its strong sell-off. As we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can take a closer look at the following "DEMAND" + "SUPPLY" zones on the chart. > The "DEMAND" zone 1, is STRONG = Played a role in the last bottom formation. > The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG = Played a role in the last bottoming out. > The "SUPPLY" zone 1, is STRONG = followed a strong move + it goes along with the mid-trend line of the largest trend channel (origin | 1972) The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation, and have been taken into account in past movements (last decades). > FIB 1 | will serve as resistance should the price attempt another run-up. > FIB 2 | represents all relevant levels, for a possible sell-off. Past highs and lows usually serve as resistance/support, one of which we have. > OLD LOW | 03/2020 > OLDEST LOW | 1985 Some levels of interest are in front of us, which in the last months + years, played a strong role for the market. > The most relevant at the moment - POIs are (1.20 + 1.185 USD) - and have been an important mark since the year 1984. In addition, they currently take a very strong support role. > The other POIs are by no means negligible and will play a role in the price development in the coming days, weeks and months. (Therefore, take your time and transfer the ones that are relevant for you into your chart). OVERVIEW CURRENT RELEVANT CHARTS Overall picture without POIs + without FIBONACCI Overall picture without POIs Overall picture without FIBONACCI ATTENTION In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements. . 2nd WEEK – Time frame SUMMARY IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY ANNOUNCED TREND CHANNEL + TREND LINES, FURTHER VISIBLE. The trend channel shown in the chart, purple, finds its root in 2016 and since then has been able to maintain itself as a legitimate trend channel. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market. > The price is in the lowest area of the channel and had regained it. Despite the successful recapture, the price does not seem to be able to hold this position for much longer. The trend lines, drawn in the chart, have the following characteristics. > The - golden - older line served as an excellent support line in the past and was only temporarily broken in 2022 by a "fake-out". > The - golden - line with the shorter history is our current down-sale trendline and would come into play in case of a further rise. > The - turquoise - line will serve us as a "POI support line" during the following correction, as it represented a strongly contested area in the past. The monthly "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones are joined by others from the weekly view that coincide with other resistance / support elements. > The "DEMAND" zone 1, is VERY STRONG = followed a strong move + was not tested by the price so far + is covered by a monthly demand zone > The "SUPPLY" zones 1+2+3, are WEAK = each followed a Weak move and do not receive additional overlap from a Monthly Supply Zone > The "SUPPLY" zones 4, is VERY STRONG = followed a very strong movement + is covered by a monthly supply zone As further Fibonacci additions, we have four more elements: > FIB 1 | will serve as support, but should not be of great relevance. > FIB 2 | represents a possible target level, for a possible sell-off. > FIB 3 | represents all possible correction levels, for a possible sell-off. > FIB 4 | represents all possible levels for a further price increase. CHARTS Overall picture Overall picture without FIBONACCI THIRD PART CONCLUSION "Is the pound losing its global position as one of the strongest currencies?" If you answered YES to this question, let's look into the reason. > Do you think this is only due to BREXIT, or is the reason a bit more complex? > Let me know in the comments what you think could be another reason and will be in the future. In summary, based on technical analysis, there are strong reasons for a correction. > Since the second attempt to break the 0.65 FIB, less and less strength is showing in the GBP. > A possible break of the resistance elements is not impossible, but highly unlikely. > The divergences in the daily RSI + MACD, suggest a bearish sell-off. For this reason, I assume a weak GBP exchange rate and a strong USD and an accompanying sell-off in the traditional and crypto markets. > Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive an evaluation of the idea. Thank you and happy trading! ZIEL IST DIE AUTARKIE | THE GOAL IS SELF-SUFFICIENCY
Short
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
5
EUR/USDWhat I see in the US is that the price broke down and reached an area of ​​higher demand. It took liquidity from the low and began an accumulation as I indicated in another projection. It continued to accumulate while slowly rising. It didn't give me any longs with good clear price action so I didn't do anything here. I take it as liquidity what it is doing, gaining strength and then going up. The price can continue to rise in this way. Or go down to take liquidity, perhaps to test the base a little more and then go up. If the price goes down and confirms a valid long, the longs are taken. We must see what the price does. I invite you to leave a comment and to check my social networks that are in my profile. There I post more ideas and trading stuff.
by rstradesuy
GBP/USDWhat I see in GU is that the price took the liquidity from the demand zone, from the low. It began to accumulate and headed bullish as I indicated could happen in another forecast. The price is reaching the supply area that eliminated the demand area for me. The price can give a valid sale in the area or above after taking liquidity from the already tested areas. Where the price confirms, a sale is taken if it is valid. In the zone or above. I invite you to leave a comment and to check my social networks that are in my profile. There I post more ideas and trading stuff.
by rstradesuy
Bank NF:High Possibility for new all time high in coming weeksThis is my positional view...it's not for a trading but buy Bank Nifty in cash... There was a selling pressure from 44000 and from 27th January there was a buying pressure from 37000. In short there is a wide range from 44000 to 37000. There is no strong bearish candle in monthly chart and price action pattern is very strong with higher high - lower low. In daily chart there is a strong bullish candle on 27th Jan from supply zone and bullish candle on 3rd march from 41000-41250 supply zone. Multiple time frame suggesting that in coming weeks it may make a new all time high.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by svapnilchoksi
AXSUSDT is testing the key level!AXSUSDT is testing the weekly support at the $9.9 area, which is a crucial level for traders and investors. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is also in close proximity, which is a key level for traders who use Fibonacci retracements to identify potential areas of support. It is expected that the price will bounce off this level, as it has done in the past, as traders look to enter long positions. However, in order for this bounce to occur, the price needs to break out from the descending channel and static resistance, which has been acting as a significant barrier to upside movement. Once this breakout occurs, it is likely that we will see a strong move to the upside, potentially towards the $12.5 area. According to Plancton's rules, a new long position should be opened once the breakout occurs and the price closes above the resistance level. This is because the breakout is a strong indication that the trend has shifted in favor of the bulls, and that further upside movement is likely. As such, traders who follow Plancton's rules may look to enter long positions in anticipation of a strong move higher. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <= 1h structure. Follow the Shrimp 🦐
by InkyGrip
4
Copper is red hot on China’s reopening, but there is more to itCopper is to commodities, what tech stocks are to equities. They are both historically cyclical but also promise potential long-term growth. Tech stocks were down last year, not because the underlying technologies were dead, but because central banks were aggressively tightening monetary policy. Copper too endured the same fate on account of macro headwinds despite the accelerating energy transition. Lockdowns in China added another layer of disappointment. So, with the macro backdrop changing this year, is the red metal becoming red hot? Markets appear to be endorsing that narrative. What does the demand and supply situation look like? China reopening China consumes more than half of global refined copper with its demand experiencing an eight-fold increase in the past four decades1. Chinese manufacturing activity, therefore, is inevitably a key driver of copper prices (see figure below). Chinese manufacturing activity remained contractionary through August till December last year, as evident from the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. In January, while the number remained contractionary at 49.22, the expectation is for it to pick up in the coming months if lockdowns remain sustainably lifted. China is a crucial source of copper’s green demand too. Chinese subsidies for electric vehicle (EV) makers have given rise to a booming industry to the point where BYD is now competing fiercely with Tesla for market share worldwide. Although subsidies for producers will come to an end this year, tax exemptions for buyers will remain in place through 2023. This will further be supported by the rollout of charging infrastructure, a key component of China’s 14th 5-year plan issued in December 2022. A battery EV can require three to four times as much copper as an equivalent internal combustion engine vehicle. Similarly, a 200 kilowatt (kW) fast charging station uses around 8 kilograms of copper3. There is a similar multiplicative effect on copper demand from other energy transition applications like renewable wind and solar power, which China is heavily investing in. The supply side In What’s Hot: Dr Copper’s misdiagnosis, we highlighted how copper’s inventories on exchanges are perilously low, a sign of supply tightness which could exacerbate if demand picked up quickly. According to Wood Mackenzie, copper may see a slight global refined market surplus of 170 kilotons (kt) in 20234. But there is considerable uncertainty surrounding this forecast. On the supply side, disruptions such as the ones we’ve seen recently in Peru could play an important role. Peru is the second largest copper producing nation and is responsible for around 10% of global mined production. Anti-government demonstrations in Peru have led to shipments being halted at the 300 kt Las Bambas mine, and disruptions at Glencore’s 180 kt Antapaccay mine, and other mines including Constancia (117 kt) and Cuajone (148 kt)5. The figures above highlight how disruption in supply from Peru can easily tip the copper market into a deficit. While disruption may not be as severe this time as it was when Covid caused mine closures in Chile and Peru in 2020-2021, it could still be meaningful especially if coupled with more demand from China. Market pricing has been moving in response to these developments. The energy transition At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged unprecedented support in clean technology across all sectors of the energy transition. For Europe to remain competitive in the new era of clean energy, it must offer something that can rival the US Inflation Reduction Act. In 2023, we expect more action from US, Europe, and China now that energy security has become synonymous with the energy transition. According to Wood Mackenzie, for the world to be on track for net zero by 2050, 9.7 Mt of mine supply will need to come from projects that are yet to be approved. This amounts to $23bn of investment a year in new projects, 64% higher than the average annual spend over the last 30 years. Conclusion Copper’s long-term demand trends suggest it could continue trending upwards but remain cyclical depending on the macroeconomics. Cyclical pullbacks could create interesting entry points for investors who recognise copper’s structural case. Sources 1 International Copper Study Group’s Factbook 2022. 2 Bloomberg, January 2023. 3 International Copper Study Group 2023. 4 Wood Mackenzie’ report, “Copper: Things to look for in 2023” dated January 2023. 5 Morgan Stanley as of January 2023.
COMEX:HG1!
by aneekaguptaWTE