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Supplyshock

Bitcoin Bulls Are Not Quitting HereTraders, As you might know, I went short on BTC at 60,500. That was when price lived just under our Multi-Year Support/Resistance TL from 2019. Obviously, I was betting that we would NOT break straight through. I was wrong and as I told my followers in our private chat, I never mind trading a bit of humility for some profit. Bulls have clearly demonstrated that they are in complete and total control. When the charts show me proof that I was wrong and new developments are in the making, I will quickly bow to the data. I know from experience that if I don't, I may lose valuable lost opportunities to profit more in the future if I don't. More evidence of bull control comes in the way of the following technical developments: Confirmation of a break above our TL Bull Flag formed above our TL New BLUE ascending TL spotted from 2022 Target of my Inverse H&S meets BLUE TL Exactly! As you may be aware, I have now exited my BTC short and pending further price action on Monday I may begin to re-enter BTC LONG. Until that time, I will be scouting for laggard altcoins that may still have time to pop further in attempts to play catch up. Apologies to TradingView people but I don't always have time to post all of my trades here. Stew
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
Is a supply shock coming for Bitcoin?Traders, I will probably not be posting as frequently this next week due to some personal matters that require more attention. Thus, I thought pushing out another general update on where we are currently sitting in the crypto space would be appropriate. As you have seen, I have still been busy entering trades in alts. The main reason for this is Bitcoin’s continued sideways price action. Because the bears have not had the power to push it down to the 48k support area, various altcoins have been given a chance to continue their rise. I have been attempting to spot those coins with the greatest potential of popping and entering as I see the time is right. So far, we are doing great in this regard. And unless/until the bears are able to push Bitcoin down below that bottom ascending purple support, I will continue to look for good setups in the alts. Though, I may not have the opportunity to alert you all on every exit or take-profit point this week, I will still attempt to post any new entries. Perhaps, that is what you all would prefer anyway as it will mean less in the way of noisy substack notifications from me? Let me know in the comments any further thoughts on this. Back to Bitcoin. Honestly, Bitcoin bulls have amazed me. Even with the pullback that I expected after the ETF approval news, we did not touch the supports that I expected we might. This indicated the bulls would maintain control. And they certainly have.If done right, the technicals will often show us the future of price action. But sometimes, it will not show us the complete picture without at least a surface understanding of the fundamentals. For this reason, I have alluded to fundamentals several times in my previous weekly updates and Bitcoin posts. Mainly this: Bitcoin ETFs were at one point demanding an average of 12x+ that which Bitcoin miners could supply. Only 24% of Bitcoin remains liquid and available for trading Bitcoin halving is only months away making it that much less available Demand from various nation-states for Bitcoin continues to rise Simple math here dictates that the multiplier effect is going to cause Bitcoin (and much of crypto) price to go parabolic. We could soon see a supply shock occur that has never been witnessed previously. And, my followers know, I am no moon-boy who incessantly pumps crypto. My conclusion simply is predicated upon cold, hard logic, math, and reason. Side note: I have never been a huge Bitcoin fan as you may have been able to tell from my underhanded jabs or derogative nicknames I have given to BTC like “Boomer Trading Coin” and more recently, “Blackrock Trading Currency”. I believe that of all cryptos that exist Bitcoin is probably one of the least private, most expensive transactionally, and most centralized in terms of ownership. Certainly, the latter is much more true recently. There are far better alternatives that exist that fulfill the goal and function set forth by Mr. Nakamoto. Anyways, this is a whole other topic and Bitcoin remains the lead dawg on which all eyes are focused. Therefore we must give it the attention and respect it deserves as the price leader of the crypto space. To conclude, if we don’t see a pullback in Bitcoin soon, this sideways action, much to the shock of many analysts, may be all that we see. At most, at this point, I would be happy with a retreat and touch of the 48k support area before we hit new all-time highs this year. Altcoins will certainly come along for the ride here and the best blockchain technologies will exaggerate this move up. I still believe many alts can see 10x plus gains from here. In any case, we have to be prepared either way. So, continue to practice those safe trading habits: be disciplined and consistent with your strategy, set your targets, set your stop-outs, don’t put all your eggs into one basket, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
ETH/USDT Expected downtrend breakout happened right at 1st Oct.Intro: - Ethereum still holds the biggest ecosystem and has running smart contracts for a long time. This headstart led to a big market dominance compared to its competitors like Cardano , Solana, Cosmos, etc. - The main issue is the scalability and therefore the transaction fees which are way to high at this stage. - Ethereum still is the first choice after Bitcoin for big investors and remains attractive. - SEC confirmed that crypto will not be banned and especially Bitcoin and Ethereum will not be banned. Daily chart: - Price shows a breakout out of the falling wedge/downtrend and keeps getting higher. From last chart we suggested to enter around 2900$ and congratulate you if you did so. - Volume keeps decreasing and is very low for such a breakout. This means currently there is not much resistance from sellers. - RSI analysis shows a breakout as well. We see that the 35 line did hold again and the RSI passed the 50line. - Support lines are at 2800$, 1750$ and 1350$. The ascending yellow line can act as support as well. - Resistance lines are at 3500$, 3950$and 4150$. Expectation: - We expect a further price appreciation over the next three months with some consolidation phases. A first consolidation under the 3550$ line seems reasonable and a struggle in the 3950-4150$ range more than plausible. - More and more people get heavily into Bitcoin and start pondering about their next investment. Taking Ethereum as next seems very likely. - End of the year prediction: We will see a 10k$+ Ethereum before the end of 2021. Basic rules: - Never buy the top/ ATH - Take profit as long as you can (also partial profit is profit) - Use Stop/loss for leveraged positions - If you are not experienced, don't leverage in the first place Enjoy the ride and don't be too greedy. If you like the content, please like, comment and give this channel a follow. We would love it if you could share your thoughts in the comments. Discussions are very welcome here. Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice. Cheers ps. Chart explanation: Main lines: - Green lines are tested support lines. - Orange lines are resistance lines or, if we are above, possible support lines which were not tested yet. - Cyan line is for volume trendline. - White lines are Fibonacci retracement levels Helplines: - Purple lines are trendlines we take a look at. - Blue, green, white and pink lines are 200MA, 100MA, 50MA and 20MA. - Yellow lines are for visual help only. Specials: - Boxes represent either entry zone or support zone . Check the description. - Cameras represent MA crossings. Yellow camera stands for a golden cross while the cyan camera stands for a death cross.
Long
by tumbler55
7
The Bitcoin Cycle & Long Term TrendThe Bitcoin cycle is divided into three stages; a bull market, a bear market, and an accumulation period. Every 4 years, a new cycle begins when the (BTC) rewards for miners (those who verify transactions by unlocking new blocks) are cut in half, hence unleashing a supply shock in the face of rising demand that jump starts a bull market, historically speaking. So far, Bitcoin has experienced three halvings: • 30th November 2012 • 9th July 2016 • 11th May 2020 According to the trend, the length of bull markets have increased whilst the length of bear markets have gradually decreased. Bear markets tend to last for over a year after a blow-off bull market top, after which a period of sideways consolidation begins - an accumulation period that is most optimal for investors to dollar cost average (DCA) into the market, in anticipation of an upcoming bull run. With regards to the 2021 bull market, a blow-off bull market top can be predicted to occur some time between December 2021 and March 2022, taking into consideration the 4 year cycle trend, as well as the lengthening cycles trend. Major mid bull run corrections have also been a key observation in every bull market including the current one, which has shaken off hundreds of billions of dollars in market value, arising fears of a potential bear market. The upcoming bear market could be predicted to bottom at around $45,000-$60,000, according to long term trend lines.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by OGFasool
5
The myth of hyperinflation series #7- Supply & productionLet's keep it simple. Increase in raw material & production cost-> Decrease in aggregate supply (Suppliers drop out as profit deteriorates)-> Decrease in total production->. If demand remains the same (most likely going to be the case unless there is another stimulus check coming in), then remaining producers/suppliers who now have more pricing power can and have to pass down the cost to consumers-> Potential supply-induced inflation happens as the same number of buyers chase after the shrinking pool of goods. However, the chart shows no such risk. As the consumption picks up, supplier/producer starts to hire more people (Manufacturing employment) and ramp up the production lvl (Manufacturing production). The increasing demand is matched by the increasing production (manufacturing production keeps up with the demand of the new order) and declining inventory (Manufacturing inventory). In other words, even though oil price and raw material cost rose (still below the historical standard), we didn't see any decrease in aggregate supply . Of course, I have simplified the matte and left out many details, but I think the only issue we have to worry about that can cause the imbalance between aggregate supply and demand is the potential supplier delivery difficulties being mentioned in the ISM report. In general, supply is elastic, meaning that the producer/supplier usually rush to increase the production/capacity as the price of good and demand go up because capital has been abundant ever since China joined WTO and the interest rate has been suppressed to such a low lvl ever since sub-prime mortgage crisis. The whole world is on the disinflationary trend as we live in a world of excess savings and insufficient demand because developing countries constantly export their savings to developed countries and because the disposable income doesn't keep up with the inflation. Such over-capacity/overproduction & over-abundance of capital and good will keep the price lvl low & affordable and the inflation lvl manageable, especially in the disinflationary environment in which there is a moderate amount of consumer demand. Next, I will talk about some of the external factors and circumstances that could influence the possibility of hyperinflation.
TVC:TRJEFFCRBEducation
by Libratus