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Supply Zone

E-MINI S&P 500. Education. Situation analysisIn keeping with the idea outlined in the linked post, I wrote about the possibility of an aggressive short trade from the 4340.75 defense. Such an opportunity did indeed arise. Explanations for the diagram. After the seller defended the level, the price updated the local minimum, which means it reached the mandatory target for a short trade. Since the deal was considered aggressive, it had no further development. Then the price reached another level of 4351, and from the protection of this level by the seller, a full-fledged short movement began Good luck in trading! Disclaimer: This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. The trading or investment ideas presented here are for illustrative purposes only and are an integral part of a case study demonstrating the concepts of using volume to analyze or trade within the market scenarios discussed.
CME_MINI:ESZ2023
by AlexeyWolf
S&P500 adjusted for Money Suppy is unchanged for 26 years In order to get the decimal point to the right of a number, I had to multiply AMEX:SPY by 1,000,000,000,000 or 1 Trillion. The price of the market is unchanged since January 1997 with the adjustment. That is an incredible 26 years where prices haven't bean 'inflation as measured by the quantity of money' floating around in the banking system. Nominally, our purchasing power if stored in stocks has been maintained over that time period, which is good. BUT, if you think you are wealthier over these last 26 years, it may be because of your ability to pick stocks that do better than the market overall. The Nasdaq likely did far better than the S&P500, for example. 321 months sideways and plenty of deviation around the level we are at now. I have adjusted other charts for inflation to make a point and I wanted to add this one, which is more aggressive, to the bunch. Tim West October 18, 2023. 12:58PM EST
AMEX:SPY
by timwest
11
XAUUSD Possible tradesHi Guys I'm back with Analysis on Gold this time. Last Friday gold touched major supply zone around 1930 and started selling off. It was a perfect opportunity since we had a supply area + trendline, a perfect confluence. Now we could wait for the area to be tested second time and upon reaching there make sure you get the confirmation in lower time frames. Below the current market price we have multiple areas of demand which the immediate one is 1907 that has been tested once on last Friday and this could be the second time. Again make sure you check for the confirmation in lower time frames. Beneath our immediate demand level there are other demand zones which you could take trades should price reach there. Just like always I'll try to keep it simple. Be honorable
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AliHassanzadeh
2
POSSIBLE TRADESHere are possible BTC trades which could be taken. At the extreme point we have an supply area which has been tested once and strong rejection is an indication of major sellers there. next time the price gets there we could take a short for the second run. Below the current market price we have multiple demand levels which could be potential places to go long. Our immediate demand level has been tested many times already and taking a trade upon this level requires more insight which could be evident provided that you check lower time frames. Lower demand levels could also turn into lucrative opportunities to go long. Just make sure you have those areas on your chart and upon reaching act based on your own entry setup. Be Honorable
by AliHassanzadeh
AUD/USD trading journal This will be a full journal we recorded all updates and trades on the AUDUSD pair Trade 1 : The pair is currently approaching a robust support zone, which has historically led to significant price rebounds. We plan to enter a long position as soon as the market reopens. Please be aware that the market is closed at the time of writing this signal. 🔴Signal Current price : 0.62950 ❌SL : 0.61684 ✅ TP1 : 0.65000 ✅TP2 : 0.68100 🖌RISK MANAGEMENT ACCOREDING TO YOUR CAPITAL 0.01 LOT FOR EVERY 2K CAPITAL This is one of our long trades with a big SL and a big TP so please risk mange
Long
by JORDAN-WALLSTREET
4
The jury is still out on the impact of El NiñoWeather has always been a key factor influencing the outlook for major commodities, especially agricultural commodities. The arrival of El Niño in June 2023 has led to a wide divergence in the performance across agricultural commodities. As discussed in our previous blog “What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?”, the effects of El Niño include specific wind patterns across the Pacific Ocean, heavy rain in South America, and droughts in Australia and parts of Asia including India and Indonesia. This is why certain commodities such as cocoa, sugar, soybean oil and grains tend to depict a price positive environment following an El Niño phenomena. So far in 2023 – cocoa, sugar and cotton have been key beneficiaries of the El Niño weather phenomena whilst wheat, corn and soybeans have posted a weaker performance. How is the El Niño evolving? With the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasting more than a 95% probability of El Niño continuing through the Northern Hemisphere winter through January - March 2024 , chances are high that we continue to see further weather abnormalities over the coming months. There is now around a 71% chance that this event peaks as a strong El Niño this winter1. The main El Niño monitoring metric showed the average sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—was 1.3˚Celsius (2.3˚Fahrenheit) above the long-term average in August, up from 1˚C in July1. The whole ocean (Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, Artic and Southern Ocean ) was over 1˚C above the 20th-century average in August, the first time that’s happened in the 174-year record2. An important aspect of ocean changes is the sea level height. Presently there is a strong ocean sea level rise in the easterly tropical Pacific, a clear sign that El Niño is active3. The changes in the ocean heat content are mainly due to the expansion and rise of the strong subsurface warm pool. This also causes the sea level height to increase, usually associated with warmer waters. Agricultural commodities price response to El Niño will vary The growing of agricultural products is sensitive to weather patterns. For some crops, El Niño could boost production, while for others it could damage production. This is because the drift in warm water across the Pacific moves’ evaporation and rain such that Southeast Asia and Australia tend to get drier while Peru and Ecuador tend to receive more precipitation. Should the weather event intensify, it could be a significant catalyst for price gains in cocoa, soybean oil, sugar, and grains as discussed in “What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?” blog. Cocoa and sugar lead the commodity scoreboard in El Niño ’s slipstream Cocoa has been an important beneficiary of the El Niño. The concentration of supply in West Africa, nearly 70% of global supply4, underlines the outsized impact of the region’s weather patterns on the world’s cocoa supplies and prices. The emerging El Niño is likely to hamper the next main crop that begins in October as it tends to bring dry and hot conditions to West Africa. This comes at a time when heavy rains in West Africa have triggered the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD) and the spread of Black pod diseases. The diseases alongside the high cost of inputs, have not spared the two leading producers (i.e., Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana) and affected their volume of production5. Despite high cocoa prices, demand evident from cocoa grinding continues to rise in Asia and the US6. Sugar has also benefitted from the emergence of El Niño as lower rainfall in Asia, namely India and Thailand have resulted in lower sugar production. However, we expect further upside for sugar prices to be capped as Brazil (the world’s largest producer and exporter) is likely to fill the gap. Production in Brazil’s main Centre- South (CS) growing region between the start of the crop year in April and mid-August already amounted to 22.7mn tons, which is up 22% over the same period last year7. What’s more, the sugar mix increased to 51.1% in H1 September, up from 50.7% in H2 August signalling that Brazilian mills continue to favour sugar production over ethanol amidst higher sugar prices5. Extreme weather conditions in China have reduced domestic supplies. China is also planning to release 1.3mn tons of sugar from its reserves, to increase domestic supplies and stabilise prices4. Wheat prices stand to benefit as key producers to face the impact of El Niño On the other end of the spectrum, grains (namely wheat, corn and soybeans) continued to struggle as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) outlined a more bearish outlook for corn while bullish for wheat. The corn harvest is progressing well with 15% of the crop harvested, up from 11% at the same stage last year and also above the five-year average of 13%8. Moscow’s revocation of the secure grain’s corridor through the Black Sea, alongside the Russian attacks on key infrastructure along the Danube River in Ukraine, have lowered grains exports from Ukraine by 25% over the prior year. Yet wheat prices have fallen sharply this year as Russia’s record crop is enabling it to ship huge volumes to world markets. The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has likewise reduced its crop forecast for the region by 1.5 million tons to 8.5 million tons. Most of Australia is expected to face warm and dry conditions over the next three months9, so further downward revisions are on the cards. Argentinian farmers are also battling with a drought. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has already warned that the crop in 2023/24 could be impaired if there is no rainfall in the near future. As the prospects for the wheat crop amongst major producer countries are becoming increasingly weak, we expect wheat to benefit from these rising tailwinds. Conclusion There has been a wide divergence within the commodity linked Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) flows since the start of the year. Agriculture linked ETFs have seen US$458mn worth of outflows while energy linked commodity ETFs raked in US$1.2Bn worth of inflows10. Agriculture linked commodity ETFs likely faced outflows owing to profit taking. We continue to expect plenty of upside in select agricultural commodities as the impact of the El Niño is likely to intensify over the upcoming winter. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ICEUS:CC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
#JPY upside potentialHi, dear traders and colleagues, Let's take a look at the JPY basket and analyze its potential implications in relation to other currencies. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been weakening for a considerable period due to the policies implemented by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). However, given that we are now at the end of the hiking cycle in other central banks, it is reasonable to assume that the interest rate differential between JPY and other currencies will start to decrease. This shift could potentially lead to the JPY gaining strength. To support this hypothesis, we can examine the chart, where the price recently broke above a long-standing bearish channel with an impulsive move. This breakout suggests that there might be further bullish momentum in store. Another noteworthy factor that adds confidence to the authenticity of this upside breakout, unlike the previous false breakout marked within the box, is the current price action. During the previous false breakout, the price formed a V-top chart pattern, resulting in a bullish impulsive move followed by a bearish impulsive move. This indicated that the breakout was driven by news events and was not sustainable. However, in the current scenario, we see the price consolidating after the upside breakout and not immediately retracing back into the channel range. This gives us reason to believe that this breakout is more likely to be genuine and mature over time. Now, in terms of trading, an upside move in the JPY basket implies that currencies paired against the JPY are likely to face challenges and experience downside movements. This includes currency pairs like EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, and so on. To identify potential entry points, we are currently monitoring two key areas. The first area of interest is marked by the arrow line, which points to yesterday's low. We are keen to observe how the price reacts around this level. The second area to watch is the 4-hour timeframe supply area, which coincides with the upper line of our bearish channel. This area could serve as a potential retest point for the price. Keep a close eye on these areas for potential trading opportunities, and remember to adapt your strategy as the market evolves. Happy trading!
FX:JPYBASKETLong
by mohemati
1
Striking Gold with long-Term TradesIn this trading idea, we'll explore a potentially profitable strategy for buying gold by utilizing a combination of technical analysis tools. We'll focus on key factors such as critical support levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, order blocks, and trend reversals. Support Levels: We'll closely monitor important support levels on the gold chart. These levels often act as significant barriers for price movement. A break below these levels can indicate a potential trend reversal or a strong bearish sentiment. Fibonacci Levels: Fibonacci retracement levels are essential for identifying potential reversal zones. We'll use Fibonacci analysis to pinpoint key levels where price may encounter resistance or support, offering valuable entry and exit points. Order Blocks: Understanding order blocks is crucial for spotting areas where significant buying or selling activity has occurred. We'll identify these zones to anticipate potential reversals or trend continuations. Trend Reversal: Recognizing signs of a trend reversal is vital for shorting gold effectively. We'll analyze various technical indicators and chart patterns to identify potential shifts in the trend direction. By combining these elements in our analysis, we aim to provide you with a comprehensive trading strategy for buying gold that maximizes profit potential while minimizing risk. Keep a close eye on these factors and stay prepared for potential market moves. Remember to perform your due diligence and risk management before executing any trades.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by KarolinaKanova
❗ USDJPY: Unimaginable Highs ⚡Crazy right?!😲 Who would have thought we would be back trading at the 1998 highs? Well, here we are. Sooooo what is the game plan now? Ideally, we need to figure out a zone to sell from! 👇 So let's figure that out together: Where is everyone trying to sell from currently? ⚡ The supply zone we are currently trading in. Where will everyone's stop losses be if they are selling now in this supply zone? ⚡ Above the high. So where can we expect liquidity and stop loss hunting? ⚡ Above the high. Great! Now wait for the liquidity grab and begin your search for possible sells once that is complete. Happy trading folks!! 😀😁😆
Short
by AlkalineFX
15
Golden Buying OpportunityTrading Gold and Oil. As you know, I typically trade these products on a longer-term perspective due to their volatility compared to the FX market. Recently, I have noticed a Bullish Shark Pattern confirmation on gold, which presents two potential approaches. Option 1 would be to engage the trade immediately if there is a retest at $1,819.37. This is because the Shark Pattern has completed, and a retest could be an excellent opportunity to enter the market. Option 2 would be to wait for a retest on the support level of the 1hourly chart at $1,814.97, as long as the market doesn't close below $1,810.12. Alternatively, if you are interested in shorting opportunities, the sell zone on the 4-hourly chart could be an opportunity for you. Which option do you think would be the best approach?
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by RaynLim
SOLANA LONG TERM (1D)Solana is in the news of late due to the worry that FTX will have to sell their holdings in SOL and Solana based altcoins. Solana tokens account for $128m out of the $1.5b in assets on the Solana network held by FTX. The fear is that a dump of these coins would be detrimental to the altcoins price. For me the chart is simple. When we look at the 1D chart there is a clear mini range we're working with. Large wicks at the high and low of the range, at the midpoint there is a small bearish FVG just above. I believe this is where we will trade for the remainder of this year. Now that we're at the 0.25 line and looking to react off it, I could see a retest of the midpoint, and if a SFP after tagging the FVG I would look to target the demand zone for a long term hold. For the next bullrun Solana is definitely a large cap alt that is set up to be one of the top gainers. With an ATH of $260, we are already at a great long term hold entry point. However, the best spot buy is in the demand zone. A sweep and reclaim would be great for the bull run to come. The supply zone may be difficult to fill in the next few months, given the FTX news, general market/macro sentiment and recession fears. I would expect a retest to come in Q1 of 2024. If we don't tag the demand zone and move into the supply zone that would be a good short opportunity in my mind. Overall, this is a complicated matter. The token itself has huge potential to reach its ATH in the coming years, but Solana must weather this storm successfully in order to get the chance to reach its potential. Buying blood and being patient will be rewarding.
by ProR35