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Supply Zone

XAU USD - showing it's teethG'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily Weekly Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 7+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by LupaCapital
20
US Dollar Still Bullish📊 Weekly Chart: Bearish bat pattern suggests shorting at 149.33. 📈 Daily Chart: Bullish movement, no shorting opportunity. 📉 Four Hour Chart: ABCD pattern at 147.76, potential shorting level. 🕐 One Hour Chart: Bullish bat pattern with running profits. 🌟 Weekly Chart Insight: - Bearish bat pattern for potential shorting. - Waiting for confirmation at higher levels. 📊 Daily Chart: - Bearish crab pattern at 150.41. - Focus on 144.79 for buying opportunity. 💡 Trading Opportunities: - Potential short at 149.33. - Buy on retest of 144.79. 📉 Four Hour Chart: - Shorting opportunity at 147.76. - Consider retest at 144.62 for shorting. 🦇 One Hour Chart: - Running profits from bullish bat pattern. - Wait for the violation of 146.29 for resistance confirmation.
Long
by RaynLim
What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?The El Niño weather phenomenon is back on the radar. A new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that there is a 90% probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023. What is the El Niño phenomenon? The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon with origins in abnormal variations in surface water temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific (Latin American coast). It comprises two opposing phenomena (La Niña and El Niño) that historically occur every 2 to 3 years. La Niña brings colder, wetter weather (lasts between 1-3 years), while El Niño brings warmer, drier weather (lasts between 9-12 months). Typical impacts of El Niño When El Niño starts picking up, trade winds slow down and the warm water near Asia starts moving back eastward across the Pacific, reaching the coast of South America. The drift in warm water also moves evaporation and rain such that southeast Asia and Australia tend to get drier while Peru and Ecuador tend to see more precipitation. El Niño typically picks up over the summer and shows its strongest effects over the winter in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the characteristics of the El Niño vary according to its timing and amplitude. World sees hottest July on record El Niño weather disturbances, which affect the entire Indo-Pacific region, lead to heatwaves and droughts. This is why the developing El Niño is likely to amplify the negative effects of climate change in Asia-Pacific, South and East Africa and the Americas. So, it comes as no surprise that large parts of the Northern Hemisphere have witnessed intense heat and devastating rainfall in the first half of 2023. July is expected to be the hottest month on record1; China set a new national daily temperature record in July and was hit by record-breaking rainfall at the start of August2. Large parts of the USA were also gripped by extensive heatwaves, with high temperatures in numerous places3. Canada experienced its worst wildfire season on record, as did parts of the Mediterranean. Implications for agricultural commodities The growing of agricultural products is sensitive to weather patterns. For some crops, El Niño could boost production, while for others it could damage production. Should the weather event intensify, it could be a significant catalyst for price gains in cocoa, soybean oil, sugar and grains. Meanwhile it could be price negative for cotton and coffee. We analysed prices of agricultural commodities over the past 11 episodes of El Niño’s, dating back to the 1960s. In 8 of the last 11 occurrences, wheat, soybean oil and cocoa traded higher by an average of 14%, 6% and 16% respectively, 6 months after the El Niño started. In 9 out of the past 11 occurrences, soybean oil and cocoa traded higher. Soybean oil benefits from tight palm oil supply In the past, El Niño has impacted the supply of agricultural commodities such as palm oil, sugar, wheat, cocoa, and rice. Based on the local weather agency Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi (BMKG)’s reporting, approximately 40 percent of Indonesia’s oil palm area experienced below-normal precipitation in June 20234. The BMKG also indicated that El Niño weather patterns are at weak-to-medium intensity and are expected to peak in August to September 2023. The shortage of palm oil tends to have a knock-on effect on demand for close substitutes such as soybean oil. This comes at a time when the escalation of attacks between Russia and Ukraine is also raising concerns on the supply of edible oils from the Black Sea region. Escalating tensions and the blockade of the Black Sea shipping routes are likely to aggravate the global edible oil and grain supply situation. Rice supply at the mercy of El Niño Dry weather has been threatening crops in the world’s second largest rice exporter, Thailand, with the country facing widespread drought conditions from early 2024. The government has already asked farmers to restrict their planting to just one crop this year. While monsoon rains have brought some relief to rice fields in parts of India (the world’s largest exporter), the country banned exports of non-basmati white rice5. Tightness in the rice market could have a knock-on impact on other staple substitutes, such as wheat. Cocoa benefits from tight supply The return of El Niño conditions is also supporting cocoa because the weather phenomenon tends to bring hot and dry conditions to West Africa. Cocoa growing is concentrated in Africa, with approximately 70% of production in the continent. Historically, El Niño has led to production shortfalls as the weather phenomenon leads to drier spells in Africa during key growing periods. This year, farmers in Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria have reported signs of black pod disease, which causes cocoa pods to turn black and rot. That could also affect the quality or curb the output of beans. The cocoa market is expected to be in a third year of deficit in the 2023-24 season which should keep cocoa prices well supported. Conclusion While an El Niño event is not guaranteed (it has less than a hundred percent probability), and the strength or the duration of the event remain uncertain, it comes on the heels of war which has caused significant disruption to the flow of grains and oilseeds. Inventories of many agricultural commodities (wheat, corn, soybean oil and cocoa) are trading below their 5-year averages, making it harder to absorb a production shock6. El Niño could, therefore, be price supportive for these agricultural commodities. Sources 1 Source World Meteorological Organization. 2 Source China Meteorological Administration. 3 Source US National Weather Service. 4 Source United States Department of Agriculture, as of 3 August 2023. 5 Source Indian Ministry of Consumer Affairs as of 21 July 2023. 6 Source United States Department of Agriculture, as of 31 July 2023. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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by aneekaguptaWTE
EURGBP proper setups! According our observations, there are just a little more sellers in the market. Remeber we could just gauge traders which are not big players in the forex market. Most main important levels are 0.8690,0.8595 and 0.8520. We use the rest of them just for riskfree and saving profits. We'll long around 0.8595 and also we aim to short the pair around 0.8690. the 0.8520 level is another good option to long in next weeks. 4h OB Ichimoku horizontal levels Buyers and Sellers levels
Long
by AliSignals
GBP AUD - the road to 2.0+ Updates: G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily chart Weekly Chart Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 7+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
2