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Support and Resistance

Gold fluctuates sharply, both bulls and bears have opportunities 💡Message Strategy 1. The decline in gold prices is directly due to the cooling of market risk aversion caused by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset has weakened. The ceasefire agreement is fragile. Israel and Iran have accused each other of default. Trump criticized both sides. Its sustainability is questionable, adding uncertainty to the gold market. 2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified at a congressional hearing on June 24 that it is necessary to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation before cutting interest rates. He is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, which has cooled expectations for a rate cut in July. Gold, as a non-interest-bearing asset, is under pressure under high interest rate expectations. The uncertainty of inflation caused by tariffs also limits the attractiveness of gold as an inflation hedging tool. 3. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June. Consumers are worried about employment and economic prospects. Although the one-year inflation expectations have fallen, the expectations for rising interest rates have risen, which has weakened the safe-haven demand for gold. In the long run, gold's anti-inflation and safe-haven properties are still there. Global economic uncertainty and a weaker dollar may rekindle demand for gold. Investors need to pay attention to the Fed's policies and the situation in the Middle East and seize the opportunity to allocate. 📊Technical aspects 1. The weekly level switches space around the 10-day moving average. This week has not yet closed, so there is no final conclusion. You can keep it in mind first. 2. The daily line lost the lifeline support area that has been held for a month. The top and bottom are converted to each other. The lifeline position 3355 becomes the resistance range. However, please note that the pattern is closing, which means that the switching space is not the direction. The opening and volume must be opened to guide the direction. Note that two points are also contradictory points. One is the lifeline 3355 switching space, and the other is that the pattern further closes and accumulates momentum, waiting for the opening to guide the real direction. 3. Five consecutive negatives in four hours, a drop of more than 100 US dollars from 3396 to 3295, and then began to rebound from a low position. This is very embarrassing. If it is a trend, there will be no consecutive positives. action, and will not linger for so long Then there is only one explanation left, or sweep, pay attention to the lifeline position 3350, the double-line upper rail position 3364, together become the pressure line position of the partial sweep method There can be a rise in leverage, but it cannot be a breakthrough of continuous rise or steady rise, otherwise the nature will change again 4. The double lines of the hourly chart are close and superimposed in the 3350-3355 area, which coincides with the four-hour lifeline. At the same time, this is also the last rebound to determine the resistance area yesterday afternoon, so as to change the nature 5. The large channel cooperates with the small channel interval. After breaking through yesterday, it further fell in volume. Now the position along the large channel is in the 3340 area. This will be the acceleration point today. Breaking through accelerates the rise, and breaking through accelerates the fall 💰Strategy Package Short Position：3345-3355，SL：3365，Target: 3300-3290 Long Position:3280-3290，SL：3265，Target: 3340
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TheodoreSilas
Pemex Bonds: A Closer Look at Mexico’s Oil GiantPetróleos Mexicanos, commonly known as Pemex, is Mexico’s state-owned oil and gas company and a cornerstone of the nation’s economy. Fully owned by the Mexican government, Pemex extracts oil from the northeast, southeast, and the Gulf of Mexico regions. But the company faces a challenge, it’s a massive debt load nearing $90 billion, making it one of the most indebted oil companies globally. Despite this, its bonds-particularly those maturing in 2027-may garner attention due to their government-backed stability and attractive yields. Pemex: A Debt-Heavy Giant with Government Support Pemex’s financial landscape is dominated by its substantial debt, accumulated through bond issuances dating back to the 1990s and continuing with more recent offerings. This debt, totaling approximately $90 billion, places a heavy burden on the company, with interest payments consuming a significant portion of its revenue. Despite this, Pemex manages to stay afloat, largely due to robust support from the Mexican government. In recent years, the government has intensified its efforts to bolster Pemex. Under President Claudia Sheinbaum (assumed office in 2024) a comprehensive support program was established, providing tax breaks, payment deferrals, and annual financial assistance of $7-8 billion. For 2025, the government has allocated $6.7 billion to cover most of Pemex's $8.9 billion in debt maturities for the year. However, Fitch estimates that Pemex will face a $75 billion cash shortfall between 2025 and 2027, in addition to $20 billion in maturities during that period. The aid helps Pemex cover its debt obligations and maintain operational stability. The company’s status as a state-owned entity also offers a unique safeguard: under Mexican law, Pemex cannot declare bankruptcy, so it must either meet its debt payments or restructure them, reducing the risk of default. Financially, Pemex’s performance has been inconsistent. In 2023, it achieved a 7% increase in net profit compared to 2022, buoyed by favorable oil prices. However, 2024 brought losses that erased those gains, exacerbated by declining oil prices. Despite these setbacks, Pemex maintains a competitive production cost of $18 per barrel, though debt servicing-accounting for about 8% of this cost-cuts into its profitability. By comparison, peers like Brazil’s Petrobras NYSE:PBR and Colombia’s Ecopetrol NYSE:EC have lower debt burdens but similar production costs. The Case for Pemex Bonds As of June, these Pemex bonds (APR 2027) with 2.75% bond-trade at 94.482% of their face value, offers a yield to maturity of approximately 7%. Among Pemex’s numerous bond issuances, the 6.49% bond maturing on January 23, 2027 (ISIN: USP78625DW03), stands out as a noteworthy option. For today’s June, this bond trades at 99% of its face value, offering a yield to maturity of 7.2%. This yield, with its bond’s relatively short remaining term and government backing, makes it an appealing option for conservative investors who look for a balance of safety and return. The stability of these bonds is reinforced by Pemex’s legal protections and the government’s commitment to its survival. In late 2024, Pemex’s credit rating was affirmed at B+ with a stable outlook, that contrasts with its prior negative outlook, illustrating the influence of state intervention. Pemex's rating remains four notches below Mexico's sovereign rating, which underlining the company's financial vulnerabilities. Bonds maturing in 2027 trade close to their nominal value (around 99%), while longer-dated bonds (e.g., 2030 and 2035) trade at steeper discounts of 88–90%, indicating greater uncertainty over extended periods. Bond Price Performance: From Turmoil to Recovery The price history of the Pemex 2.75% bond maturing on April 21, 2027, shows a picture of its resilience. 2019: The bond began at around 92.000, experiencing minor volatility but stabilizing by year-end. 2020: At the beginning of the year, there was a sharp drop to 64,000, all due to the impact of the pandemic. COVID-19 significantly undermined global markets back then and Pemex was no exception, followed by a gradual recovery to 80,000. 2021-2022: The price fluctuated between 76.000 and 84.000, reflecting market uncertainty but maintaining relative stability. 2023-2025: A clear upward trend emerged, with the price rising from 84.000 in late 2023 to 94.843 by June 2025. The recovery aligns with Pemex’s improved credit outlook and government support, demonstrating to us twice again the bond’s ability to rebound from lows and approach its nominal value as maturity nears. Risks to Consider While the 2027 bonds offer compelling features, they aren’t risk-free. Pemex’s $90 billion debt remains a long-term challenge, unlikely to decrease significantly in the next decade. The company’s financial health is also tied to volatile oil prices, as seen in 2024’s losses. Government support is strong right now, but political or economic shifts could alter this dynamic, though no immediate threats on the horizon are apparent. Also in addition to financial risks, active market participants should consider Pemex's environmental, social, and governance (ESG) challenges. The company has faced multiple incidents- there where several fires at critical assets in 2023 and 2024, raising from it concerns about operational safety and environmental impact. Then, these events have led to injuries, fatalities, and potential ecological damage, earning Pemex an ESG Relevance Score of '5' in several categories from Fitch. The company's track record in waste management, GHG emissions, and employee wellbeing is a concern that may affect its ability to raise capital and maintain people’s confidence. The 2027 bonds present a lower-risk option compared to longer maturities. The shorter timeline reduces exposure to uncertainties, and the 7% 7.2% yield to maturity provides a solid return for the remaining 1.5 years. A Conservative Investment Opportunity The Pemex 2.75% bond maturing on 2027 may offer to us a cautious yet attractive opportunity. Backed by the Mexican government and protected from default under local law, it offers relative safety and 7.2% yield to maturity. Its price recovery from 2020 lows to 94.482 by June 2025 reflects the market's trust in Pemex's stability despite its substantial debt. For people, who comfortable with moderate risk, the 2027 bonds provide a balanced investment option. However, potential investors should weigh the company’s long-term debt challenges, oil price dependency, and ESG risks first.
U
by juliakhandoshko
HYPEUSDT Long Setup After Bullish CompressionHYPEUSDT has formed a bullish ascending triangle — a price pattern suggesting an upward breakout. Price action shows tight compression with higher lows, indicating aggressive buyers stepping in. The current long position is taken from a pullback entry at $35.404, just above the ascending support. The trade targets a breakout move toward $40.449, aligned with previous highs and psychological resistance. Trade Setup: - Entry: $35.404 - Stop Loss: $34.154 - Take Profit: $40.449 - Risk:Reward Ratio: 1:4.04 This setup anticipates a breakout continuation. A strong bullish candle above $38.30 could serve as confirmation. A break below the ascending structure would invalidate the trade. Bias: Bullish breakout continuation Trigger: Ascending triangle formation with compression toward resistance Invalidation: Break below $34.154 (structure low)
Long
by NakamotoZzzz
SOLUSDT | T.A.P.E. Method Breakdown: Has Solana Bottomed Or Not?Let’s walk through the T.A.P.E. Method I use to read every chart. This isn’t about price alone — it’s about structure, behavior, pressure, and clarity. Solana is at a critical decision point. I’ll explain what smart money is likely seeing, and how I’m approaching this chart with logic — not guesses. T — Territory (Know the Zone Before You Clone) I started with the Fibonacci retracement from the all-time low to all-time high. It’s clear SOL is reacting near the golden pocket zone — a historically strong area for reversals. We also saw strong support at the 2618 extension after the first major leg down. This alone gave an 87% rally. That’s how clean setups work — clarity beats complexity. Market structure remains bullish on higher timeframes. Yes, we’ve had a wick below prior lows, but no clean break — structure still holds for now. A — Activity (Price Behavior Over Indicators) I don’t use RSI or crossovers. I look at behavior. From the local low to the swing high, the retracement again held the 618 zone, showing buyer defense. However, on a second leg down, SOL broke below the 2618 level — a key difference. This shift in behavior is what I’m watching closely. Price pushed past 236 on the retrace — that can hint at a stronger bullish leg forming. But... P — Pressure (Pain Points and Traps) Here’s where most traders get caught. Early longs that entered during the last local rally are underwater. Especially those who bought around the value area high — they are likely hoping to exit break-even, adding sell pressure. This is classic: a liquidity zone stacked with pain. That pressure zone sits just above the current range, near $153–$164. If we get a strong move into that zone without structure, I’ll be watching for short setups — not breakouts. E — Execution (No Setup Is Complete Without a Plan) Here’s how I’m structuring it: No-trade zone: Where we are now. No edge here. Short area 1: $153 — trendline + resistance Short area 2: $164 — invalidation just above Target: Sweep lows + retest $138/$128 Invalidation: Clean breakout above $164 with structure Support zones to watch: $138 (value area low) $128 (786 Fib) $122 (old structure pivot) If price forms structure and pushes through the golden pocket cleanly, then I shift bias. But for now — pressure remains to the downside. Summary & Context: This T.A.P.E. breakdown keeps me from chasing noise and protects capital. Too many early longs, weak structure, and clean resistance zones make this a potential short setup — not a long. If price flips those resistance zones into support with structure, I’ll adapt. Until then: Plan the move. Let the market prove. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All opinions are my own, based on chart behavior and analysis. Do your own research. This is a paper money breakdown shared for educational purposes only.
by Capitalchief
OIL Bullish BiasCurrently sitting on my hands but closely watching oil, especially after Iran & Israel Consolidation Protocol active. Need to see external range taken. I will not trade inside this range. Favoring longs. Think accumulation, manipulation, distribution. Right now its in the accumulation phase. Manipulation phase is next. Preferably sweeping external low first then distribution higher to bsl. Relative equal highs / LRLR at 114.29 first long term target. Final target are the inefficiencies at 130 - 150.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CEOTraders
Opportunities only come to those who ambush in advanceAfter Trump announced that Israel and Iran had reached a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, the market's risk aversion sentiment cooled significantly, and the price of gold once plummeted by more than $30. Although the stability of the ceasefire agreement is in doubt, the rebound in risk appetite dominates the market trend, with stock markets rebounding, oil prices falling, and demand for safe-haven assets falling. Powell will deliver a semi-annual monetary policy testimony, and the market is paying attention to his statement on the timing of the July rate cut. At present, the internal differences of the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts have intensified. If Powell sends a signal that the number of interest rate cuts this year is limited, it may strengthen the rebound of the US dollar and suppress gold prices; on the contrary, if the stance is dovish, it may ease the downward pressure on gold prices. In the short term, the fading of geopolitical risks and the warming of risk appetite are the main reasons for the decline in gold prices, but the weakening of the US dollar and the potential dovish tendency of the Federal Reserve still provide support. In the medium and long term, global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks and expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose policy still constitute structural support for gold. From a technical perspective, the gold daily moving average system is in an intertwined state, and the forces of bulls and bears are relatively balanced. The current short-term resistance above is around 3320-3333, which is an important psychological level. If an effective breakthrough is achieved or the upside space is opened, the support below will focus on the 3285-3295 line, which is the lower edge of the May oscillation platform. If it falls below, the pressure of the correction may increase. The loss of the middle track in the 4-hour chart further confirms the short-term weak structure and provides technical support for the downward trend. It is recommended to go long on the pullback near 3285-3295. At present, gold continues to fall in line with the trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
The rebound is an opportunity to short goldAfter the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel and Powell's hawkish remarks that strongly refuted the possibility of a rate cut, gold fell sharply and hit a low near 3295. Although gold has rebounded, it is particularly difficult during the rebound process, which shows that the bulls are not willing to attack, and the rebound is only a technical repair of the decline. Since gold fell below 3300 yesterday, the current bull structure has been changed in stages and the confidence of the bulls has been greatly weakened. As gold falls, it will be under pressure in the 3345-3355 area in the short term. Before gold breaks through this area, any rebound may give us an opportunity to short gold; in addition, after gold falls below 3300 once, in order to move downward and test support, gold has the need to retreat again. So in the next short-term trading, we can try to use the 3345-3355 area as resistance, short gold appropriately, and look to the 3315-3305 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Steffen_Schade
Long & Short Entry Forecast For GoldCooling war tensions seem to be cooling the Gold bullish rally as well. But we're still in the same range since April 15th and will likely stay in the range until further notice *or the next tweet* The Sell entry is great now cos we're near the top of the high volume node, so even if we consolidate around that POC this sell entry will still be putting us closest to the top of the node. Hold your sell and TP at the VAL . We have a very deep low volume area there and its being a point of support since April. So we can place bets with small risk on hoping it holds cos if it doesn't, it wont be pretty. That is still the best place to buy regardless. So manage your risk accordingly TP 1 for the Buy trade is at the POC , which also happens to be the top of the huge volume node. Totally make sense to take a decent chunk of profit of your position there, then move you stop loss into profit and grab some pop corn. Depending on the news , the best case scenario of for the uptrend is to continue all the way up to TP2 which is at the VAH Secure the bag :) Enjoy
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by ExoProtocol
Ebay Wave Analysis – 24 June 2025 - Ebay reversed from long-term resistance level 80.00 - Likely to fall to support level 71.15 Ebay recently reversed down from the resistance area between the major long-term resistance level 80.00 (which started the weekly downtrend in 2021) and the upper weekly Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from this resistance area created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star. Given the strength of the resistance level 80.00 and the overbought weekly Stochastic, Ebay can be expected to fall to the next support level 71.15 (former resistance from the start of 2025).
NASDAQ:EBAYShort
by FxProGlobal
Microsoft Wave Analysis – 24 June 2025- Microsoft broke the resistance area - Likely to rise to the resistance level 500.00 Microsoft recently broke through the resistance area between the resistance levels 468.15 (a former multi-month high from the middle of 2024) and 455.85 (which reversed wave B in December). The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active minor impulse wave 5 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from April. Given the clear daily uptrend, Microsoft can be expected to rise to the next round resistance level 500.00 (target for the completion of the active impulse wave 5).
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by FxProGlobal
CADJPY Wave Analysis – 24 June 2025- CADJPY reversed from the resistance area - Likely to fall to support level 104.75 CADJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area between the resistance level 106.85, the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the extended downward impulse from November. The downward reversal from this resistance area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 3. Given the strength of the resistance level 106.85, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 104.75 (which reversed the pair earlier this month).
Short
by FxProGlobal
Give It The Gas I've got a long Idea for the Henry Hub Natural Gas ETF, UNG. After rising in late-2024/early-2025, UNG fell again (Mar-Jun), but recently (significantly) crossed above the trendline from that down move. Time to look for a long position. But UNG is volatile - to reduce risk it's best to pick it up after a minor pullback. That seems to be happening now. One thing I find useful when looking at an ETF backed by a commodity is to look at the chart for the underlying commodity future. To be clear, I am NOT trading the future, only looking to it for (more) guidance. In this case, for UNG, I chose the Aug Henry Hub Natural Gas contract (NGQ2025), which TradingView provides 10-minute delayed date for; Here we see the trendline (light blue) is even stronger (i.e., more points of contact). In addition, the contract made a series of slightly higher lows (yellow line) before breaking through strong resistance at ~3.82 (a level which may now be providing support). Trendline breaks alone can be very flighty - they often don't work - so it helps to have other supporting factors (e.g., higher lows preceding, strong resistance breaks). And, not shown here but useful, UNG/NG is not overbought on the daily chart. Now one could take a long position here, with a stop below the trendline, but I prefer my knives to at least slow down before I catch them. Looking at the 4-hour chart for a reversal to enter; A reversal and close above 3.92 would give a good entry point (using UNG), with a tighter stop at ~3.7 (or ~16.25 on UNG). This is a "work in progress", so the actual trigger levels may change a bit. Or the whole setup could invalidate itself if the instrument(s) corrects back to at/below the trendline. For targets, natural gas has resistance at 19.1 and again at 24.0 - best to trail a stop as UNG's price rises, bringing it up as each zone is hit. For the long position, I anticipate an ITM option ~90 days out. I'm doing this in a taxable account, and for tax purposes UNG issues a K-1 to shareholders. I can do without the hassle. Option holders do not receive K-1's* (unless assigned), making tax reporting more routine. Time to step on the gas? *To the best of my knowledge - if any tax experts here know otherwise please drop a comment. My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
AMEX:UNGLong
by TheUncertainTrader
All That Glitters Is Not Gold (But Silver?)And another long Idea - this time in the Silver ETF, SLV. Looking at the daily chart for SLV, a couple of things standout from a few days ago; - The price just broke the all-time high at 31.80, along with significant resistance at ~31.50, and - SLV gapped up, leaving tight stops a bit problematic. As I've said before in this instance I do two things; 1. Wait for a pullback (which we're now seeing?), and 2. Switch to the commodity futures chart (emphasis - I'm not trading the future, just taking a look) Using the July Silver contract on the CME; We can see the breakout, and now the retest(s), of two critical highs from the last few months. Switching down '1' interval, to the 4-hour chart; We can see 3-4 retests of those old highs, which now may be acting as support. I've drawn in a short-term trendline and resistance. A cross of that trendline and a close above 36.260 should provide a good entry point. A stop could then be placed at 35.00 (with a close below that on the 4-hour), just below this recent turmoil. As for targets, this scenario has SLV making new all-time highs - best to just trail and let SLV tell you where to exit. All that glitters.. My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
AMEX:SLVLong
by TheUncertainTrader
Stellantis | STLA | Long at $9.59Stellantis NYSE:STLA is the maker of the auto brands Fiat, Peugeot, Jeep, Citroën, Opel/Vauxhall, Ram Trucks, Dodge, Chrysler, Alfa Romeo, Maserati, DS Automobiles, Lancia, Abarth, and Vauxhall. The stock has fallen sharply due to a 70% profit drop in 2024, weak U.S. sales, high inventory, and tariff uncertainties. The turnaround for NYSE:STLA beyond 2025 hinges on new CEO Antonio Filosa’s focus on U.S. market recovery, new product launches (e.g., Ram 1500 Ramcharger, Jeep hybrids), pricing adjustments, aggressive marketing, $5B U.S. manufacturing investment, and mending dealer relations. The stock is trading at a P/E of 5.1x, debt-to-equity of 0.8x (not bad), a book value of $29 (undervalued), a tangible book value of $9.82, and earnings and revenue are forecasted to grow into 2028. Economic weakening and tariffs may hamper these predictions, but the new CEO and future interest rate drops may get this stock rolling again. However, if NYSE:STLA shows zero sign of near-term recovery or other fundamental issues arise, I truly think this stock could enter the high $5-$6 range before a true reversal begins. From a technical analysis perspective, the stock price is currently with my selected "crash" simple moving average. This area often signifies a near-term bottom, but like mentioned above, watchout out for the "major crash" simple moving average area currently between $5.83 and $7.09. Regardless of bottom predictions, NYSE:STLA is in a personal buy zone at $9.59 with a greater position likely if it enters my "major crash" zone, as mentioned above. Targets into 2027: $12 (+25.1%) $14 (+46.0%)
NYSE:STLALong
by WorthlessViews