DeGRAM | EURUSD held the support line📊 Technical Analysis
● Price broke the two-year descending channel roof and completed a daily “cup-with-handle”; the handle low held exactly on the 1.121-1.128 former supply, confirming it as demand.
● Pattern height added to the breakout line projects to 1.1600, which coincides with the violet channel-top; next target is the upper parallel / 1.1950, while the handle floor at 1.1080 guards the trend.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Euro support grows as April EZ wage-growth beat ECB staff forecasts, tempering expectations for an aggressive easing cycle, while softer US core-PCE keeps real-yield spreads tilting in the euro’s favour.
✨ Summary
Long bias intact above 1.121; objectives 1.145 breakout ➜ 1.1600, stretch 1.1950. Invalidate on a daily close below 1.1080.
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Support and Resistance
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
It's been a fantastic start to the week with the red box holding nicely to give traders the short trade using the red boxes and KOG's target levels, which are all completed for the week here.
We now have support below at the 3285 level which if continues to hold, should give traders another opportunity into that 3306-10 region. We've already taken one into 3304, so for us no more trading until tomorrow. That's the level to watch in our opinion for a potential flip.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of news. Retest of resistanceFX:XAUUSD remained above the key support level of 3280 and is testing intermediate resistance. Against the backdrop of the dollar's decline, the metal has a chance to continue its growth...
Gold is trading in consolidation ahead of the Fed meeting minutes. Easing trade risks and the dollar's recovery triggered a correction from the recent peak of $3366. Against the backdrop of the dollar's correction, the metal is entering a phase of local rally and testing resistance at 0.5f
The Fed is maintaining a cautious tone, and the market is waiting for signals on interest rates. The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the threat of new sanctions from Trump did not cause significant concern in the markets. Investors are waiting for drivers
Resistance levels: 3322, 3348, 3363
Support levels: 3290, 3282, 3265
A small correction may form from 3322 before growth continues. The market is interested in liquidity in the 3348-3363 zone, and the price is likely to test this zone. However, further developments depend on the fundamental background. Rising economic risks or hints of interest rate cuts could support the price of gold.
Best regards, R. Linda!
$145 Stop, $262 Target — SOL Bullish Breakout Looks UnstoppableThe chart presents a clean bullish reversal from the previous downtrend observed between February and early April. After breaking the long-term descending trendline, Solana (SOL) flipped structure and has been printing higher highs and higher lows, signaling a transition into an uptrend.
This is reinforced by the ascending blue trendline that currently acts as a dynamic support. Each price correction respects this trendline, showing that buyers are defending higher levels.
✅ Key Technical Justifications for Bullish Bias
1. Break of Downtrend
The long-term descending trendline from the February highs was broken decisively.
This signifies a trend reversal, which has since seen SOL push into a new bullish channel.
2. Strong Higher Lows
Price has been consistently making higher lows, respecting the blue uptrend line.
This price behavior confirms increasing bullish momentum.
3. Support Level Holding
The horizontal support around $96.59 was respected during the reversal.
This base forms the foundation of the bullish wave we’re seeing now.
4. Bullish Price Compression
After a strong impulsive rally, SOL has entered a consolidation just above the trendline.
This resembles a bullish flag or pennant, typically a continuation pattern.
5. No Major Resistance Until $260+
The nearest strong resistance sits around $262.56, which aligns with a previous breakdown zone and coincides with your take-profit (TP) zone.
With no serious resistance in the $200–$250 range, price can climb smoothly once bullish continuation triggers.
📊 Trade Setup (Long Position)
• Entry: Around $174.30 (current market zone as per chart)
• Stop Loss (SL): $145.00 (Below recent swing low and dynamic support — gives the trade breathing room)
• Take Profit (TP): $262.56 (Aligned with horizontal resistance and measured move target)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 2.91
Potential Reward: +50%
Potential Risk: -17%
This trade setup is not only favorable from a risk/reward standpoint but also follows price structure, trend, and technical confirmation.
🧠 Final Thoughts
Solana (SOL) on the daily chart has shifted into a clearly bullish phase after a textbook breakout from its multi-month downtrend. The current setup shows a healthy trend structure, room for price expansion, and favorable technicals across the board. The next key breakout will likely occur above $180, and that can send SOL quickly into the $240–$260 range. If you're looking to ride a swing position into Q2-Q3, this is one of the cleaner long setups currently on major altcoins.
DXY 15-Minute Technical & Fundamental AnalysisDXY 15-Minute Technical & Fundamental Analysis
DXY has reclaimed momentum, trading at 99.300, after strong U.S. economic data and a hawkish tone from Fed officials signaled policy stability — boosting short-term confidence in the U.S. dollar. On the 15-minute chart, we’re seeing a bullish structure reinforced by clean liquidity manipulation and institutional flow.
Price confirmed bullish intent after breaking above minor key resistance at 99.250, triggering a wave of buy-side momentum. A brief liquidity hunt below 99.250 followed — a textbook manipulation phase — before buyers stepped back in.
DXY then formed Higher Highs and Higher Lows, indicating a well-supported uptrend. Price is now sitting inside the liquidity zone, where smart money often positions for the next leg up.
📊 Trade Setup
📍 Area of Interest (AOI): 99.140 (Buy Limit)
🛡 Stop-Loss: 98.990 (Below liquidity grab and minor support)
🎯 Take Profit: 99.610 (Next minor resistance / 1:3 RR)
This setup aligns with institutional behavior, offering a high-probability entry for short-term trend continuation.
📰 Fundamental Outlook
🇺🇸 USD Strength Backed by Short-Term Fundamentals
Resilient U.S. Data: Retail sales and durable goods orders beat forecasts, signaling economic strength and limiting downside for the dollar.
Fed Stays Hawkish: Policymakers have reiterated their "higher for longer" stance, reducing expectations for rate cuts and supporting the dollar.
Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical concerns and weak economic data abroad have driven flows back into the USD as investors seek stability.
Yield Support: Elevated U.S. bond yields continue to attract foreign capital, giving additional strength to DXY.
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
Why I Think Gold May Buy This Week...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends,
I think Gold will continue to buy today and potentially for the rest of the week. This is only my technical analysis, so please check the news and cross-reference the indicators on your chart. Here is what I am looking at:
- The market has been pushing up since it hit a swing low at 3285
- Bullish candles are picking up momentum with Bullish engulfing on H1. This is a bullish confirmation for me
- The STOCHASTIC is facing up, the orange line (slow) is below the blue line (fast), both have crossed above 50%.
These are all bullish confirmations for me. I will setting buy stops as marked on my chart. I will set my SL at the previous low and use previous highs as my TPs. Good luck if you decide to take this trade. Let me know how it goes in the comments below.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
EURJPY → False breakout of resistance. Reversal?FX:EURJPY is testing the resistance of the trading range as part of a distribution movement, but the situation ends with a false breakout and price consolidation within the flat.
Against the backdrop of the falling dollar, the Japanese yen is strengthening and thus exerting a corresponding influence on the currency pair. EURJPY is forming a false breakout of resistance within a distribution movement formed after a retest the support of the flat. The price returns to the channel. After a false breakout of resistance and a return of the price below a strong key level, a base is forming in the form of support at 163.2 (trigger).
Resistance levels: 163.4, 163.6
Support levels: 163.2, 162.7
A breakdown of the 163.2 trigger and price consolidation below the key level could intensify the sell-off, triggering a further decline.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Trading Signals for GOLD Sell below $3,307 (6/8 Murray-21 SMA)Early in the American session, gold is trading around 3312, rebounding after reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel formed on may 14, above the 6/8 Murray level, and below the 21st SMA.
Gold made a sharp technical correction during the European session and is now consolidating above the 6/8 Murray level, suggesting a possible technical rebound in the coming hours, potentially reaching 3,327.
On the other hand, if gold maintains bullish momentum, the price could break above resistance at 3,330, and then we could expect a new bullish sequence, potentially reaching 3,437, the 8/8 Murray level.
If bearish momentum intensifies, we should expect confirmation of a sharp break below the 6/8 Murray level and consolidation below this area on the H4 chart.
Then, the outlook could be negative, and gold could quickly reach the 200 EMA around 3,251, or even reach the 5/8 Murray line around 3,203.
Gold left a gap around 3,198. Gold could close this gap if falls below the 6/8 Murray line, and it could even reach the psychological level of 3,125, which coincides with the 4/8 Murray line.
Bears Win the Battle for GoldGold had been stuck between the orange downward trendline and the shorter-term upward trend channel (white), with a decisive move imminent as discussed in earlier posts. That decision now appears to favor the bears, as the upward trend channel has broken.
Following the break, gold quickly dropped to the 3,270–3,290 support zone, which is currently being tested. This zone also includes the 200-hour moving average, adding to its significance. The main support to watch is the yellow trendline visible at the bottom of the chart, which originates from late December. This trendline currently sits near 3,150 and could be the key medium-term target if bearish pressure continues.
In the shorter term, if the 3,270–3,290 zone fails to hold, the next downside target is likely 3,200.
IPI - Fertilizer Trade: A Forgotten Play, Geopolitical upsideWhenever a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war materializes, agricultural restoration will be one of the first and most critical steps, not just for Ukraine's battered fields but also for Russia's export infrastructure.
Both countries are central to global wheat markets, and reviving output means ramping up fertilizer usage, especially potash. That sets the stage for renewed interest in fertilizer producers.
Potash, also known as potassium chloride, is an important nutrient for plants. It helps them resist drought, strengthens their roots, and increases crop yields. Unlike more energy-intensive nitrogen fertilizers, potash supply is concentrated and not easily ramped up.
Belarus and Russia are among the top 10 world potash exporters, but sanctions and supply chain bottlenecks have impacted their volumes.
Ukraine will need to import significant amounts of potash to rebuild its ag base.
Global potash demand could rise sharply as post-war reconstruction efforts kick in, and that makes Western suppliers a critical piece of the puzzle
The market may not be pricing in this recovery narrative just yet. Fertilizer stocks popped in 2022, but most have been rangebound or sold off since as supply chains stabilized and the commodity cycle cooled off. But structurally, if global potash demand starts ramping again, especially from a fresh buyer like Ukraine coming back, the upside case for U.S.-based producers becomes clearer.
Macro themes like agricultural recovery after war are slow-building but often explosive once recognized. The fertilizer story is one of them. If you're positioning ahead of that curve, it's not just about trading. It's also about recognizing that geopolitical peace, when it comes, won't just be about diplomacy. It'll be about digging back into the soil and starting over.
Intrepid Potash may be one of the most overlooked names in the market right now. It is tucked away in the fertilizer sector, has low volume, and is not hyped.
But that quiet tape hides an interesting setup. After a boom-bust cycle following the 2022 commodity shock, IPI has been grinding through a long consolidation.
Now, with potash prices stabilizing and geopolitical risk still unresolved, the stock is showing early signs of an uptrend. And with options cheap and sentiment nonexistent, this could be a classic contrarian long.
2022: IPI surged alongside fertilizer peers after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked global fears of food insecurity and disrupted potash supply chains.
2023–2024: The stock gave up those gains as:
Central banks hiked aggressively, capping inflation-linked trades.
Potash prices corrected from panic highs.
Broader commodity sentiment turned defensive.
Now (Mid-2025): IPI is starting to build out around long-term support. Price action is tightening, and early momentum signals are starting to flash. This isn't a runaway rally yet, but it's building the right kind of structure.
Call options with a ~$45-$50 target expiring December (can also use call spreads)
Option premiums are still cheap, reflecting low implied volatility and a market because nobody 'in their right mind' is looking at this yet.
If Russia-Ukraine negotiations resume or if even partial de-escalation happens, the market may quickly reprice ag rebuild stories. Fertilizer demand from Ukraine could spike, and with Belarusian and Russian supply still under partial sanctions, Western producers like IPI could benefit disproportionately.
If the Fed signals that it's near the end of its tightening cycle or even hints at cuts in late 2025, rate-sensitive commodity equities could start to re-rate higher. That would relieve pressure on capex-intensive names like IPI.
Global potash prices are off their highs but showing signs of stabilization. If demand forecasts pick up, prices don't need to move explosively higher, just holding firm or ticking higher could expand margins and renew investor interest & sentiment
With few traders active in IPI's options, implied volatility remains low. Any volume-driven breakout (or narrative shift) could trigger a fast repricing. Think of this as a "volatility catch-up" play in addition to a directional one.
Pair: GBPNZD Bias: Bullish (contingent on breakout or support hoPrice has repeatedly rejected resistance at 2.27286 and is now consolidating between this key level and 2.25282. With this week being month-end, it’s likely we could see a pullback before a larger move into June.
Trade Zones:
Buy from 2.25282 if we pull back and hold as support
Buy above 2.28114 if we get the breakout
Targets:
First: 2.29580
Extended: 2.31200
Invalidation:
Break and close below 2.25282 with bearish follow-through
Notes:
Wait for price action confirmations.
Be mindful of low volume and false moves during month-end flow.
15-minute chart, there exists another Fair Value Gap!Gold Price Technical Analysis.
At present, gold is exhibiting signs of continued bearish momentum as it trades below the 50% retracement level of the 30-minute Fair Value Gap (FVG). The fact that this critical level has been broken suggests a weakening of bullish strength in the short-term timeframe, and reinforces the likelihood of further downward pressure on the price.
Moreover, on the 15-minute chart, there exists another Fair Value Gap just below the current market level, which is offering minor support for the time being. This area has been acting as a temporary cushion, slowing the pace of decline; however, its sustainability remains uncertain under the current market sentiment.
Should gold decisively break below the 15-minute FVG as well, it would indicate a deeper structural weakness and open the possibility for an extended bearish move. In such a scenario, the next potential support level lies around the 3293 mark, which could act as a short-term target for sellers and a critical level for buyers to watch for possible reversal signals.
Traders and investors are advised to monitor price action closely around these key levels, as further developments could define the next major move in gold's short- to medium-term trend.
BGSC in Maturation – Breakout or Breakdown?📊 Market Overview
📉 BGSC continues to trade within a clean descending channel.
🔵 Price recently stabilized inside a well-defined support zone (blue).
🔴 The resistance zone (pink) above remains a key level and has been tested several times.
📉 Volume is declining, volatility is low – a textbook case of growing compression.
📐 Technical Structure
🪜 Since the April high: structured downtrend with lower highs & lower lows
🛑 Blue zone shows early signs of a local bottom
📈 A move toward the upper channel boundary is possible
📉 Volume hasn’t confirmed a breakout yet – market is watching
🧠 Our Assessment
📍 A local bottom appears to have formed in the support zone
📍 Buyers are defending – early higher lows, lack of downside pressure
📍 A move toward the upper boundary looks possible
⚠️ For a confirmed bullish reversal, we’d need:
🔹 Volume expansion during the breakout
🔹 A confirmed close above the resistance zone
🔹 No immediate drop back into the previous structure
🟰 Until then, the structure remains neutral with early bullish signs
📌 Conclusion
✅ Consolidation is intact – but the setup is maturing
✅ The market will decide at resistance – not before
✅ Structure over expectation – reaction is key
💬 What’s your take on this setup?
Has a true base formed – or is this just the quiet pause before the next leg down?
🧭 Share your thoughts in the comments.
What makes a breakout meaningful – and what doesn’t?
🧩 Because sometimes, the signal isn’t in the breakout itself,
but in what the market chose to ignore right before it happened.
ATH (Range) Breakout - retest on Golden Fib
After forming a range on the 1h timeframe, ATH successfully broke out and sweeped the liquidity above, before retesting the Golden Fib level below perfectly.
Strong Support level at 0.052 held, and has shown us the initial reaction was a push upwards with momentum. Providing us with a clean entry for the next push to 0.56 level.