THE KOG REPORT
THE KOG REPORT
In last week’s KOG Report we suggested wanting to see the price dip into the lower support level and then give us the long trade back up into the target levels above as well as red box resistance. This worked well of us in the first two days of the week completing our bullish bias targets before mid-week. We then suggested traders continue to long rather than look for the short trade while we identify the key turning point for the ideal short trade, which as you can see during the week we did. This trade worked well for us completing not only our Excalibur targets but our bias targets, hot spots and of course opportunities to scalp using our indi’s.
An extremely decent week in Camelot not only on Gold but the other pairs we trade, analyse and apply the algo to. Well done to our traders and team.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
This is going to be a simple one this week as it’s FOMC week. We’re looking at two key levels here, the resistance level of 2670-5 and the support level first 2640 and below that 2630. Ideally, we want to see price find a base and then push upside from the support levels giving us the trade long into that higher level where we will want to monitor the price action. If we see strong defence then with a confirmed set up, we feel a short is on to target the lower levels in another attempt to try and break 2600. As you can see if you zoom out, it’s just a big range of accumulation on a larger scale being played here, ranging sideways like this can only mean there is a move of great magnitude on its way which we as traders need to be prepared for.
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 2630 with targets above 2650, 2555 and 2667
Bearish on break of 2630 with target below 2610 and below that 2590
RED BOXES:
Break above 2650 for 2657, 2660 and 2669
Break below 2640 for 2635, 2630 and 2610
We’ll use this report up until FOMC where we will publish a new report this week. So please trade carefully, expect some choppy and ranging price action and price to attempt to settle in a small range from Tuesday late session onwards.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Support and Resistance
Is AUD/NZD Ready to Resume the Downtrend on the Daily Chart?Context on AUD/NZD Technical Factors
On July 30 and November 22, the AUD/NZD pair encountered significant resistance, reaching the 1.1150 level. The price's failure to break above this resistance has resulted in the formation of a double top on the daily chart. The candle on November 22 also indicated a false breakout of this resistance, signalling a notable influx of selling pressure. On November 29, AUD/NZD broke below its nearest uptrend line on the daily chart, prompting a decline to 1.0925 before recently rebounding to 1.1050, the level where the uptrend line was breached.
The current price level of 1.1050 aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline and represents the same area where the uptrend line breakout occurred. This suggests that once support is broken, it may serve as resistance going forward.
Key Elements of Analysis for AUD/NZD:
Double Top Formation: Indicates buyers’ inability to maintain prices above 1.1150.
Break of the Uptrend Line: Confirmed decrease in upward momentum.
Fibonacci Confluence: The breakout level coincides with the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent downtrend.
Possible Short Entry
Given this confluence of factors, there is a possibility that AUD/NZD may resume its downward movement in the coming days, especially if the price manages to close below 1.1000 on the daily chart.
Possible Targets:
The next support levels that could serve as potential targets include:
1.0880: This level acted as support in August and September, representing an approximate target of 120 pips. It is also in line with a rising trend line established since March 2020.
1.0780: This level was a support point on September 9, offering a potential target of approximately 220 pips.
Alternative Scenario: Bullish Reversal
An alternative scenario may unfold if the AUD/NZD breaks and closes above 1.1065 on the daily chart. In this case, the price could continue to rise towards historical resistance at 1.1150. A successful breach of this level could see the pair advance towards the next resistance at 1.1250.
Important Considerations
Investors should pay close attention to the upcoming release of New Zealand GDP data on December 18, as this could significantly impact the AUD/NZD pair. Additionally, key news concerning the Trade Balance for NZD should also be taken into account.
In summary, AUD/NZD is at a critical juncture, with technical indicators suggesting the potential for a downward move. Traders should closely monitor price action, particularly around the 1.1000 level, while remaining aware of upcoming economic data that could influence the market.
Disclaimer
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Little bull call spread on StellantisI believe we are in the end of an accumulation. We had bad news lately about this company and his CEO. I don't want to own the stock, specially in this part of the economic cycle. This is purely a speculative trade.
There is a divergence in the awesome oscillator marking a possible end of the bear trend and right after, a period of low volatility characteristic of accumulations as we can see in the multiple historical volatility oscillator below. A spring a few days ago confirmed there were strong buyers. Now we are against the trendline.
So, I believe it's cheap (from ~€25 went down to ~€12,50) and it should make a bullish move shortly.
Strategy: Bull call spread
Expiration: 17 JAN 2025 (45 days to expiration)
Legs = +2 calls 13 and -2 calls 14
Premium = 0.27 * 100 stocks * 2 q per leg = €54
Max gain= €146
Risk / Reward = 2.7
Commissions= €1.5 (only open)
Break-even = From 13.27 (lower call + premium)
Historical Volatility (45 days) = 35,85%
Implicit Volatility = ~31%
In English: If the underlying (the stock) arrives at 13.27 I start earning money. If it gets to 14 or if it surpasses this price, I get to the max reward. I can lose at the most €54 + commisions even if the stock goes to €1.
The blue lines in the chart represent Breakeven, Max reward price and Expiration so I can follow the underlying. Now it's time to follow the DOM for each option.
I hope this process of thought helps you in your trades, specially if you are now to options.
Nifty searching for upward momentum. Nifty has again held on to the Motherline support of 50 Hours EMA today and if it is able to cross the resistance of 24698 more upside can be on the cards. In such a scenario the resistances on the upside in addition to 24698 will be at 24775, 24852, 24975 and finally 25147.
The supports for Nifty on the lower side seem to be at Mother line of 50 Hours EMA which is at 24852, 24398 Father line support of 200 hours EMA, Mid channel support at 24290 and finally the support is at 24174. Below 24174 Nifty become very weak. Above 25147 there will be a parallel channel breakout and Bulls will become very powerful. The signs are positive and despite a negative day on the browsers shadow of the candle is neutral to positive for tomorrow.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
EURUSD Nearest Target: SHORT before LONGOn the 5-minute timeframe, we can see a Market Structure Shift (MSS) around 1.05126, and the imbalance (iFVG) at 1.05171 has already been filled. While the weekly timeframe bias remains bullish, targeting 1.05952, this is a quick short-term move, so it won’t take much time.
That’s why I call it "SHORT before LONG." My target is at 1.04925, as there’s a high probability the price will bounce upwards from that level. That’s where I’ll set my take profit (TP).
CUMMINS INDIA LTD Swing TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
COROMANDEL INTERNATIONAL LTD Swing TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
NYYKAA Long TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
PRESTIGE ESTATE LTD Swing TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
PSX : AVNTo predict the potential length of the third downtrend for Avanceon Ltd. (AVN), we can analyze the previous two downtrends and look for a pattern. Here’s a breakdown:
-First downtrend lasted 46 bars (69 days)
-Second downtrend lasted 48 bars (73 days)
Both downtrends are similar in length, with a slight increase between the first and second.
If we follow this pattern of slight growth in downtrend duration,
we can estimate based on historical patterns,
it’s reasonable to predict that the third downtrend could last approximately 74 to 78 days.
HUDCO Swing TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
GOLD → Correction before a possible fall FX:XAUUSD is moving into the correction phase amid last week's economic data. The price is returning to the channel and in general confirms the bearish character on the market.
Markets are ready for a 0.25% interest rate cut, but traders are waiting for hints on the Fed's stance: whether the Fed will continue to cut rates, go into a wait-and-see mode, or hint at a rate hike based on last week's economic data. Traders are eagerly awaiting the Fed's decision, which will be announced on December 18. The gold price is also receiving support from renewed tensions in the Middle East and political turmoil in South Korea.
Technically, after the false breakout of 2721 a deep correction is forging, which generally develops into a localized downtrend. The price is approaching the panic zone 2615-2600. At the Asian session a correction is forming and it is worth paying attention to the key resistance zones
Resistance levels: 2667, 2675, 2685
Support levels: 2646, 2633
The price is heading towards the imbalance zone within the correction. A quick approach and retest of resistance could trigger a rebound. Traders may enter the phase of profit taking before strong news
Regards R. Linda!
ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD Swing tradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
USD/CHF continue with the UptrendOn USD/CHF , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 0.88900.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
S&P is Shaping a Bull Flag While Awaiting the FED DecisionLast week was characterized by increasing selling pressure that hindered upward price progression but failed to trigger any substantial pullback. The market has not even retested the previous consolidation zone ( 598-601 ), which highlights the weakness of the sellers.
Looking at the daily chart, the recent price action resembles a bull flag, favoring a continuation of the upward trend. For sellers to demonstrate their strength, they must not only break this pattern to the downside but also breach the 598 support level and drive the price further down to 594 .
Much will depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, alongside the release of key economic data. The most favorable outcome for the bulls would be a 0.25% rate cut. Any other scenario could spark concerns—either about an impending recession (if the cut is larger) or about a prolonged high-interest-rate environment (if the cut is absent).
The market outlook remains bullish; however, the current price level is not ideal for new long positions. Buyers would be better served by waiting for a more meaningful pullback (e.g., to the 600 level), provided it is not driven by a negative shift in economic sentiment.
MATIC - The one token to avoid in 2024Last year I wrote the idea:
“MATIC - The one token not to hold in 2023”
It was not a popular opinion. Link to idea below. At the time price action was at 97 cents. Down 13% currently in what was arguably one of the most bullish years for markets those past 30 years.
What of 2024? Nothing good. A weekly death cross is almost certainly going to print by the month of February.
A weekly death cross does not mean price action shall correct immediately, however it is a strong indication of a continuing trend.
At the same time a bearish divergence can be seen as price action appears to recover broken market structure. The 3-day chart below shows this divergence more clearly.
Is it possible price action continues upwards and onwards? Sure.
Is it probable? No
Ww
3-day chart negative divergence
DR Reddy Laboratories Swing TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
DLF Swing Trade Hello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
MOTHERSON looking For breakoutHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
USD/JPY continue with the UptrendOn USD/JPY , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 152.890.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
GBPJPY Long TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .