XAUUSD RECAP & TRADE IDEAFrom the previous setup, we can see that the movement of gold made a breakout at the 2728 level before dropping to the take profit level at the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (2651) and then made a correction to the 50-61.8 Fibonacci retracement level (2709). So this week, I am waiting to see if the current price will head towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension before deciding to continue the buy position. If the price successfully breaks the support level at 2642, it is likely that the price will head towards 2360-2500/90. However, if there is a bounce at the support area, the price might continue to rise towards 2690-2700.
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
Supportandresitance
Is it the time to Buy the Dip? FX:HKG33
As you can see from 1D chart - the MACD & Signal line both are on downtrends.
Be cautious if the MACD fast line break below the zero line.
From W chart, you can see the MACD & Signal lines are both staying zero line i.e bullish mode but on a weaker momentum ( the KDJ is on bearish zone and the MACD histogram with ligher green). Also the MACD line (blue line) seems forming a curving down movement.
The next Support level at 18186 (the sudden surge on the 26Sept2024 +1239.06;6.41% that day)
From 1h chart, at point of commenting it seem that the index is on Bearish mode, it might take a while to rebound to previous support level (the new resistance ) at 19500-19520.
You may not want to open bullish too early if it's not break through the level.
Shorterm
Bearish - it seems the index will continue to be downtrend based on 4h BB; but SL at 19834, you may set TP at 19146 (the next support level)
Peoples Sell on News
www.tradingview.com
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From Reuters : China and Hong Kong stocks fell on Thursday after Beijing's latest measures to revive the struggling property sector failed to boost investors' mood.
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Longterm
Let's continue to monitor the D chart with MACD & KDJ indicator if there is clearer signal to take position.
While waiting let's zen with 🍵 & 📙
Nov.05-Nov.11(ETH)Weekly market recapLast week, Trump defeated Democratic candidate Harris on Wednesday to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, following his promises of several supportive cryptocurrency initiatives that are expected to materialize. These include the dismissal of the Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the establishment of a strategic BTC reserve to hold digital currencies obtained from assets seized from financial criminals by the federal government, and the promotion of the U.S. BTC mining industry, with the hope that the remaining global BTC will be mined in the United States.
Currently, the U.S. is in a rate-cutting cycle, with a reduction already implemented on November 8, and another expected this year. As long as the CPI data on November 13 does not exceed expectations, the likelihood of further rate cuts is significant.
Last week, there was a substantial net inflow into ETH ETFs, indicating that following Trump's victory, the favorable monetary policy has sparked optimism and speculative behavior among investors, leading to a significant influx of capital into the cryptocurrency market.
Given the current landscape, the cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory environment, the substantial inflow of funds into ETH ETFs, and the macroeconomic benefits of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are all catalysts for ETH's rise last week and its potential future increases.
Under the leadership of BTC, ETH exhibited a one-sided upward trend last week, with the increase nearly compensating for the decline experienced since July of this year. The WTA indicator has shown blue bars, indicative of whale activity, suggesting significant capital inflow. Meanwhile, the orange wave area of the ME indicator is rapidly tightening, signaling a weakening of bearish sentiment.
In summary, we anticipate that ETH may rise this week, although caution is warranted regarding potential pullbacks. We have adjusted the resistance level to 3400 and the support level to 3000.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
Nov.05-Nov.11(BTC)Weekly market recapLast week, Trump defeated Democratic candidate Harris on Wednesday to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, following his promises of several supportive cryptocurrency initiatives that are expected to materialize. These include the dismissal of the Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the establishment of a strategic BTC reserve to hold digital currencies obtained from assets seized from financial criminals by the federal government, and the promotion of the U.S. BTC mining industry, with the hope that the remaining global BTC will be mined in the United States.
Currently, the U.S. is in a rate-cutting cycle, with a reduction already implemented on November 8, and another expected this year. As long as the CPI data on November 13 does not exceed expectations, the likelihood of further rate cuts is significant.
Last week, there was a substantial net inflow into BTC ETFs, indicating that following Trump's victory, the favorable monetary policy has sparked optimism and speculative behavior among investors, leading to a significant influx of capital into the cryptocurrency market.
Given the current landscape, the cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory environment, the substantial inflow of funds into BTC ETFs, and the macroeconomic benefits of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are all catalysts for BTC's rise last week and its potential future increases.
BTC exhibited a one-sided upward trend last week, continuously reaching new highs near $90,000. The WTA indicator shows the appearance of blue bars representing whales. This macro shift is beginning to attract large capital. The purple wave area on the ME indicator is widening, indicating strengthening bullish sentiment.
In summary, we believe BTC may rise this week, but caution is warranted regarding potential pullbacks. We have adjusted the resistance level to $90,000 and the support level to $79,000.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
Short Term Buy ( pullback ) ConsolidationGBP has seen a lot of Bearish Pressure and with the failure to break and meaningful highs on the higer time frame, constant 23.6 retracements are sign of continuation/ consolidation , has struggle to break past the lows, based on the technical and market sentiment its ranging between 0.00% and 23.6 % . Any news could shoot gbp/usd in any direction right now overall gbp is bearish as a currency.
USDJPY UPDATEFrom the weekly chart, the price has reached the 61.5 Fibonacci retracement level and made a rejection at the price of 145.470 before dropping again to the level of 152.134 on the 1-hour time frame. Therefore, I am waiting for any possibility of a rejection as shown in the chart before deciding to continue selling USD/JPY
Gold out Lookthose who are bearish should see weekly Rejection till the trend line price broke its daily recent trend line and got back in i suggest that gold will remain bullish over this week as it has not broke its trend line to the downside if it does so and breaks below 2678 level of support we can consider it will drop towards 2661 and then 2648-45 level of support and will not come upwards easily then another confluence is gold has closed back in position and remained near 2700 level and retested it several times
Gold : BUYGold bullish trading is a compelling option for investors and traders who aim to capitalize on the rising value of gold in global markets. Often considered a "safe haven" asset, gold tends to attract significant attention during times of economic uncertainty, inflation, and market volatility. A bullish approach to gold trading generally involves betting on its price increase through a variety of strategies, from spot trading and futures to gold ETFs and mining stocks.
One of the primary appeals of a bullish gold strategy is its potential to hedge against inflation. As fiat currencies lose purchasing power, gold's intrinsic value often holds steady or rises, making it an ideal asset to protect wealth. Furthermore, global demand for gold remains robust, with central banks, jewelers, and technology sectors consistently creating a strong foundation for its long-term appreciation.
In terms of trading, bullish positions in gold can be profitable, especially when paired with technical analysis and macroeconomic indicators. Many traders look for signs of economic instability, like geopolitical tensions or declining interest rates, as signals to enter bullish gold trades. In such conditions, spot prices often surge, rewarding those with bullish positions.
However, gold trading also requires caution, as the market can experience pullbacks due to profit-taking or shifts in monetary policy. Moreover, gold’s movements can sometimes be sluggish compared to other assets, so timing is essential to maximize gains. Risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, are essential in volatile markets to safeguard profits.
Overall, gold bullish trading is a reliable way to diversify a portfolio and hedge against economic downturns. With the right market insights and risk management, traders can benefit from this timeless asset’s long-standing value and stability.
XAUUSD TRADED IDEAHi all
There are two movements, buy and sell. If the price respects the trendline, it is likely that the price will continue to drop to TP 1. However, if there is a breakout at the trendline and it makes a new high, it is likely that the price will change direction to a buy and target an all-new time high of 2874
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
Sensex Support and Resistance Levels for 6th Nov 2024I’ve created a chart highlighting the key support and resistance levels for #Sensex, designed to help traders make informed decisions.
These levels provide critical insights for understanding potential price movements, enabling traders to identify ideal entry and exit points.
Use these levels to gain a clearer perspective on Sensex trends and optimize your trades with greater confidence.
Remember, these levels serve as guidance, so always combine them with your own analysis and risk management.
Oct.29-Nov.04(ETH)Weekly market recapLast Friday, the non-farm payroll data fell significantly short of expectations, leading to a substantial increase in interest rate cut anticipations. The price of ETH surged before retreating, with the majority of traders attributing the disappointing data to the impact of the hurricane, as the market response was less than favorable.
Currently, the differing expectations regarding monetary policy and future inflation between the two candidates in the U.S. election make the election outcome pivotal for the mid-term trajectory of BTC, while also impacting the price of ETH. Should Trump be elected, the promised favorable policies may come to fruition, increasing the likelihood of institutional investments in BTC, thereby enhancing its fundamentals as digital gold. Conversely, if Harris takes office, the SEC is expected to maintain its stringent stance on cryptocurrency regulations.
Last week, ETH experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, but the overall fluctuations were minimal, remaining within a consolidation range without any significant trend. The WTA indicator showed blue bars representing whales, which disappeared after Saturday, indicating a withdrawal of substantial capital. The ME indicator continues to reflect a bearish trend.
In summary, we anticipate that ETH may continue to oscillate this week. We maintain our previous resistance level at 2800 and support level at 2200.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
Oct.29-Nov.04(BTC)Weekly market recapLast Friday, the non-farm payroll data fell significantly short of expectations, leading to a substantial increase in interest rate cut anticipations. The price of BTC surged before retreating, with the majority of traders attributing the disappointing data to the impact of the hurricane, as the market response was less than favorable.
Currently, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is pivotal for the mid-term trajectory of BTC, given the differing monetary policy and inflation outlooks of the two candidates. Should Trump be elected, the promised favorable policies may come to fruition, increasing the likelihood of institutional investments in BTC, thereby enhancing its fundamentals as digital gold. Conversely, if Harris takes office, the SEC is expected to maintain its stringent stance on cryptocurrency regulations.
Last week, BTC experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, breaking through the resistance level to reach $73,590 on Tuesday. The WTA indicator showed the emergence of blue bars representing whales, but these disappeared after Saturday, indicating a withdrawal of significant capital. The ME indicator remains in a bullish trend.
In summary, we anticipate that BTC may experience considerable volatility this week. We have adjusted the resistance level to $74,000 and the support level to $67,000.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
Analysis: Key Levels to Watch for Short and Long OpportunitiesI'm watching the Nasdaq closely as it approaches a critical decision point. In this analysis, I’ll outline two potential scenarios, including both short and long trade ideas based on the confluence of key technical levels.
Current Setup and Key Level: 20,320
Right now, the 20,320 level is my primary focus. This level aligns with:
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downtrend, suggesting potential resistance.
The VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price), which is acting as a dynamic resistance level.
This confluence makes 20,320 a critical resistance zone, where the market might either reverse or push through, setting the tone for the next significant move.
Scenario 1: Short Opportunity at 20,320 Resistance
If the price approaches 20,320 and shows signs of rejection (like a bearish candle pattern), I’m looking to take a short position at this level. Here’s why:
Fibonacci & VWAP Confluence: The alignment of the 38.2% Fib level with the VWAP reinforces this level as a strong potential resistance.
Risk Management: I would place a stop-loss above the 50% Fib level (around 20,400) to manage risk if the price breaks higher.
Targets: My initial target would be around the 20,000 level. If this breaks, I anticipate a stronger move downward due to potential stop-losses being triggered below 20,000 (more on that below).
Note on Stop-Loss Clusters: I believe many traders might have their stops placed just below the 20,000 mark. If the price breaks below this level, we could see a quick, momentum-driven move lower as these stops are triggered, potentially driving price toward deeper levels.
Scenario 2: Bullish Break Above 20,320
If the price breaks above 20,320 and holds above both the VWAP and the 38.2% Fib level, it could signal a bullish shift. Here’s what I’m looking for in this scenario:
Confirmation Above VWAP and Fib Level: A strong break and close above these levels would indicate that bulls are taking control and might push for higher retracement levels.
Potential Targets: In this scenario, I’d look for the price to move towards the 50% Fibonacci level (around 20,400) as the next resistance, followed by the 61.8% level near 20,500 if momentum holds.
Invalidation for Shorts: A decisive break and hold above 20,320 would invalidate the short setup. If this happens, I’ll look for potential long entries on a pullback to the VWAP or 38.2% Fib as support, with stops below these levels to manage risk.
Conclusion
The 20,320 area is the key level to watch here, with potential for both short and long setups:
Short Scenario: Look for rejection at 20,320 to target a move down to 20,000, with a possible extension lower if the 20,000 support breaks.
Long Scenario: A break above 20,320 could open the door for further upside, with potential targets around 20,400 and 20,500.
This setup combines technical indicators with price psychology, as stops clustered around the 20,000 level may drive significant moves if that support level is breached. I'll be monitoring how the price reacts to 20,320 closely for confirmation of either setup.
Let me know if you see anything differently or if you have any questions. Happy trading!
BTCUSD WEEKLY UPDATE hi all
"Last week, BTC/USD failed to break through the resistance level of 71195 and faced rejection. So, this week, I am observing the price action to see if there is still potential for the market to decline."
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It’s a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading skills, as well as for my trade journal.**
GBPUSD UPDATE Next week is going to be very high-risk, starting with the US election, BOE Monetary and followed by the FOMC meeting.
Based on technical analysis, I am biased towards going long on GBP/USD after the strength of the USD leading up to the US election.
good luck
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
EURUSD UPDATE ( HIGH RISK WEEK )Next week is going to be very high-risk, starting with the US election and followed by the FOMC meeting.
Based on technical analysis, I am biased towards going long on EUR/USD after the strength of the USD leading up to the US election.
good luck
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
BTC Short Trade Opportunity and SetupBYBIT:BTCUSDT.P / BYBIT:BTCUSDT / CRYPTO:BTCUSD Bitcoin/BTCUSD has recently hit the resistance level of a pattern that has generally held true since mid March 24 (4 preceding resistance and support confirmations).
Furthermore, it has started a return downward move following on from a 3 day filter for confirmation of the resistance level (an example of how a 3/5 day filter is an important tool for crypto trading).
Additionally:
The RSI resistance level of 70 has been recently reached and the RSI is trending downwards - a usually statistically significant indicator
The downward return move is supported by reasonable (although not enough on it's own) volume
A 3 bar pattern (downward move, pause, further downward move for confirmation)
A rate of change approaching and trending negative
A MACD also approaching negative
It's always important to assess the risk that might prove the thesis wrong. And they are:
Today's candlestick pattern is close to a dragonfly, i.e. there might be a return upwards move imminent (although this is unlikely to constitute a beginning of a move beyond the previous high as an actual dragonfly candlestick is at the end of a downtrend)
The MACD is trending down but has not actually turned negative yet, i.e. it is a bit early to say this indicator is stating a downward trend
The ROC hasn't turned negative yet either (but is trending downwards for sure)
This all leads to the following conclusion: For those with a high enough risk appetite (and usually crypto traders are those with the highest :-)) this is a good entry point for a short trade.
Using the (admittedly early but still reasonable) trend for the past three days to determine the final take profit point of 45500 (blue arrow) by approx. 19 Nov 24, the following can be set as a guide for a trade:
Entry: Now or latest tomorrow in case today's candlestick is an indicator of a minor move upwards
SL: $70,500
TP1: $63,450 - based on the first potential moving average being a resistance (200 MA)
TP2: $60,500 - based on the previous move's consistent (and twice confirmed) low
TP3: $54,500 -based on a previous historic low (i.e. psychologically important price point) which also acts as a confirmation of support to a previous move
TP4: $45,500 - The approximate price point of an estimated downward trend
Exit date (independent of TP level): 19 Nov 24
NOTE: the 19 Nov date here is important. It is the forecasted date by which the current downward price trend would linearly reach the support level. This date would be used as a checkpoint to exit the entire trade to safeguard against the normal, usually dramatic and beyond rational calculation price gyrations of crypto.
Will Three White Soldiers Lead the Way?OANDA:XAUUSD Analysis
4H Chart
Current Price: 2447.215
Analysis Summary
• Three White Soldiers Pattern
• Volume Analysis
• Overbought and Resistance Zone
• Overall Bullish Trend
Three White Soldiers:
The chart shows a clear Three White Soldiers pattern, a strong bullish reversal candlestick formation indicating potential upward momentum. This pattern suggests consistent buying interest, as each candle closes higher than the previous one, signaling sustained demand.
Volume Analysis:
A closer look at volume reveals a weakening trend in the third candle of the Three White Soldiers pattern, suggesting a slight decline in buying strength:
• 1st Candle: 74.889K
• 2nd Candle: 134.962K
• 3rd Candle: 41.235K
This drop in volume in the last candle may indicate limited buying pressure, warranting caution before assuming continued upward movement.
Overbought and Resistance Zone:
The price is approaching a significant Overbought and Resistance Zone, which could act as a barrier to further upward movement in the short term. Combined with the lower volume in the third candle, this zone could lead to a potential consolidation or minor pullback before the next upward move. Despite this, the bullish reversal signaled by the Three White Soldiers suggests that the overall trend remains positive.
Interpretation:
Considering the overall bullish trend, the weakening volume in the last candle of the Three White Soldiers, and the approach to the Overbought and Resistance Zone, we anticipate the following:
1. Retracement to Support: The price may retrace down to 2739.624 before rebounding back to the Resistance Zone.
2. Potential Pullback to Ultimate Support: A further dip may take the price towards Ultimate Support at 2734.375.
3. Continued Bullish Momentum: After testing these support levels, the price is expected to resume its upward trend, with a potential breakout beyond the Resistance Zone, targeting the Extreme Overbought Zone.
Key Levels to Watch:
• Support: 2714.844
• Ultimate Support: 2734.375
• Retracement Level: 2739.624
• Overbought Zone: 2754.116
• Extreme Overbought: 2758.565
• Resistance: 2758.565
Overall Trend:
The overall trend remains bullish, with expectations of continued upward movement following any short-term pullbacks.
This analysis combines technical patterns, volume insights, and trend direction to provide a comprehensive outlook. Happy trading!
Summary of the week and a swing long position & locked profit
FX:HKG33
Summary of the week for the index.
1h chart form a golden cross below zero line and happen that 4h chart had formed the same golden cross even though both are below zero line. I took a aggressive & several long position.
TP at 20735 level at time was looking at the index trying to close the week gap.
I did keep some position open hoping that the US trading time could continue to boost the index.
But it seems it loose its steam and 4h chart not strong for MACD & Signal line breakout zero line.
the Index closed at 20506.46 (still record a decline of 1.21% -250.70). Looking at the W chart it seems pulling back and let's continue to monitor if its prepare for the next climb.
You may note that the W chart the MACD is above zero line still consider bullish but with weak lighter green histo.
Jya. Let's zen during weekend with 🍵 & 📙