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Price Action & Psychology - Trend following, pullbackHello ! Key points : Wide range candles in the direction of the trend Pulling back after over-extension Significant support area After a period of consolidation, the double bottom ignites the new trend. We notice how the wide range candles support the trend. On the hourly chart, there's a break of the trendline, a retest and a failed attempt to push prices down. Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer. ***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
ALong
by UnknownUnicorn6734025
Price Action & Psychology - TAZ, Relative StrengthHello ! Key points : Pullback in Traders Action Zone Significant support zone Volume increasing Buyers threatening downtrend ("inverted hammer") For more information about the Traders Action Zone, please take a look at my previous analysis ("Related ideas"). The correction yesterday provided us with quite some opportunities. Just as on the idea I linked, we can assume that this stock is pretty solid. By comparing yesterday's overall market correction (near -7% on the Dow Jones) with the price action on individual stocks we find out which stocks are "strong" and which ones are "weak". The stock pulled back into the TAZ and formed an "inverted hammer". In other words, buyers are threatening sellers. The stock gapped down, got bought up and came back down before consolidating (on high volume ) around the opening point (hourly chart). Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer. ***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
QLong
by UnknownUnicorn6734025
Price Action & Psychology - Traders Action Zone, Relat. StrengthHello ! Key points : Significant support zone : That zone has been significant since the stock market crash in March. It acted as resistance, aswell as a small consolidation area (02/06 - 03/06). It is showing relative strength : Considering yesterday's correction of the overall market, the behavior of individual stocks tell us how strong they are. Price rejection + volume : They day before yesterday, the stock gaps down a lot, triggers stop-losses and panic selling, but eventually, it got bought up (5 or 15 min chart). Traders Action Zone : To define that zone, I'm using the 30 EMA and the 10 SMA . Basically, the TAZ is pretty useful when stocks are trending. It defines a zone where the general trend resumes after a "breath-taking" pullback. Traders Action Zone As you can see on the left side of the chart, it is considered that whenever the 10 SMA is above the 30 EMA , we look for opportunities to go long and vice-versa. After some time, the price over-extends and retraces in the TAZ. Obviously, it should be combined with other signals, in this case what gives us a signal is the relative strength of the stock, aswell as the signficant zone. Here's an example on SPY : Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer. ***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
NYSE:EBLong
by UnknownUnicorn6734025
USDZAR Waiting on Monthly Structure (Yearly Bearish Sentiment)Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful... USDZAR MONTHLY FX:USDZAR Huge Bearish divergence in the monthly time frame. Previous month closed as a sell signal hence we expecting huge sells this month.. Our initial 1st Target has been hit with patience we moving on to the next target 16.33390. Price line in monthly has crossed below volatility bands indicating a change in trend and we expecting a further cross of the Priceline and blood which will confirm strong Bearish presence in markets. If this cross happens long term Target will be Priceline touching Liquid 50 and also price coming back to the open of the year . WEEKLY Priceline is currently crossing below liquid 50. A perfect indication that sells are coming into markets . Patience it’s still too early. We are still within the first week of the month which is term as the open. DAILY Current daily Candle looks like a sell signal. Also Priceline appears it wants to cross back below bloodline. Waiting on Daily Close. For perfect sells kindly wait for OHLC in H4 . Also remember it’s the first week of the month of June .. trade with caution .. * Waiting to determine Monthly Structure * Yearly Structure is still OHLC (Sells) PATIENCE
Short
by PeanutButter
7
Xau/UsdMy analysis until June 19th. With futures contracts expiring on the 19th i expect gold to either retest this 1763 area or even break higher until 1772 with strong seller rejection back at this level in 2012. Gold continues to stay above the 200 ma waters but is at small momentum and will ultimately lose a bit on possible profit taking during expiration of contracts. This leave will leave opportunities on the table for all institutions of traders to get in on price action before volatility explodes to either side. Am overall bullish but always staying optimistic at key levels. :)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn6803810
1
The reason why trading IS gambling (Why it's important)Hello everybody and welcome, First of all, thank you for the interest you show. The goal of this content, is to empower you with the tools you need to shift your psychology and level up your trading. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Before we start, let me just say that I do not have any product to sell. My content is free and my only goal is to provide valuable information to help traders being more successful and consistent when trading. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Some explanation regarding the introduction above : What I want to emphasize through that example, is that often times, when trading, you will face losing streaks . It is inevitable and we can also assume that it is recurrent . It is important to note what happens in the mind of a trader : doubt . Why ? Because of not accepting the fact that trading is gambling. I know ... It might be hard to "accept" because people often times think that trading is all about skills, but it is not. Let me explain : When you trade, whether you are long or short, you rely on nothing else than other people to make profits. The problem is, you do not know if these people have the same convictions and beliefs as you do regarding what the market is going to do in the future. So there's randomness involved in trading because every moment is unique, i.e. it involves different people. But, if you have an edge, meaning a "strategy" that puts the odds in your favor (whatever it might be, trading pullbacks, momentum trading, morning panics, gap strategies, etc...) : YOU ARE THE HOUSE . You win over a LONG period of time no matter the outcome on a trade-to-trade basis. Now, considering what we just said, should we care about what is going to happens to the trade I highlighted above ? Absolutely not. Why ? Because we have accepted the fact that the distribution between wins and losses is RANDOM in the market . Therefore, whatever the outcome is, we know, that we will be profitable in the long run. Why does that actually matter ? Well, it matters, because as I stated above, traders doubt when they encounter a losing streak. They question their edges, their skills, they start questioning their rules and strategies. What is likely to happen ? They blow their account. Fear, the biggest enemy in trading Apart from doubt, the trader that just has gone through 4,5,6,7 or more losses in a row, is afraid. He is afraid to put on that next trade, even though that trade could be a homerun and wipe all his losses. Fear paralyzes us, it reduces our focus and narrows our attention to what we fear the most. You probably recall the time when you put on a trade and you kept bagholding a loser, you were paralyzed, you just couldn't sell. There's a funny thing that happens everytime when you hold on to a loser, whenever you decide to sell, the market bounces back. This is because you are not alone on that boat and human psychology is universal. Once you have accepted that, you will be able to focus 100% on your actual trading errors, which are related to your knowledge and your skills. You will never doubt or have a moment of indecision if your edge appear on the chart. You will take the trade and don't care at all what happens next, because you know that trying to figure out if it's going to work or not has no sense. Thank you for taking the time to read me. I really appreciate that. Make sure you comment below if you have questions or just wanna add something. Thanks a lot, MyTradingJournal
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn6734025
4
Price Action & Psychology - Pattern & MTFAHello ! Key points Triple bottom pattern Price rejection Significant support zone Hourly chart : On that timeframe, we get a confirmation from the price rejection we see on the daily chart. The stock gapped down, triggered stop-losses and panic selling. Afterwards, we see a wide bullish candlestick (kind of "Tweezer Bottom") that has approximately the same volume. I see two different ways to play that trade : "Aggressive" entry : buying around the previous close "Safer" entry : waiting for a breakout on the hourly chart Either way, in my opinion the stop-loss should go above the Tweezer Bottom. On a 15-min chart, we see that the price action was pretty straightforward, kind of an instant correction from the morning panic. Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer. ***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
NYSE:UALong
by UnknownUnicorn6734025
2
Price action & Psychology - First pullback after breakoutHello ! Key points : Breakaway gap Breakout on high volume First pullback Volume sinks The stock consolidates within an ascending triangle, it gets rejected from that significant confluence zone (circled on the left). It makes higher lows but not higher highs, buying pressure slowly builds up, people gain in confidence and are willing to pay higher prices to get on board. Finally, the stock breaks out - psychological shift in people's mind, they expect the price to go higher, therefore they are willing to pay higher prices. The pullback is caused by profit-taking. In fact, we see a decrease in volume that might keep on going today. The Fibonacci Retracement is only a reference point, other people are monitoring these levels, which make them significant. We will monitor the circled zone and wait for a "confirmation" that tells us that buyers are stepping in and that sellers are losing control. Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer. ***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
NYSE:AXLLong
by UnknownUnicorn6734025
Price action & Psychology - Inside trader's mindsHello ! Key points : Double bottom Volume on uptrends > volume on downtrends Indecision + rising volume It all starts with the halfway retracement. The stock makes a new low, buying pressure kicks in, drives price up. The halfway retracement is the result of traders taking profits, see how the volume fades ? Anyway, the momentum is not enough to break through the resistance and keep the trend going, it reverses. See how that 50% retracement seems to be a reference point, marked by the indecision candlestick (doji) and the spike in volume. The gaps on the way up tell us that buyers are really aggressive (or covering their shorts). On the way down, there's once again buying pressure (candlestick + volume) around that previous halfway retracement. Note how the volume crumbles down and the bearish candlestick marks the last burst of the downtrend. Volume is rising, there's still a healthy balance between buyers and sellers, we should see an increase in traded shares today. Summary : Those that bought too early (circled zone) either sold or are still holding (an might re-enter or add to their loser) Some will probably buy the double bottom or the just the support It is very unlikely that traders are going to short this zone Those that have an open short position will cover Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or wanna discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer. ***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
MLong
by UnknownUnicorn6734025
1
Price action & Psychology - Triple bottom, rejectionHello ! Key points: Triple bottom Rejection at support Spike in volume That price rejection actually tells us that people were afraid and panic sold at open, driving the price down until it encountered some buying pressure and price went back up. When gauging this candlestick pattern, it is important that : It is at a support level Occurs after a selling wave Shadow/wick goes below previous swing point low A volume increase An obvious wider price range Look at the previous candlestick, it clearly tells us that there was some buying pressure but not enough momentum to carry the price up. Furthermore, it pulled back, I'd guess, halfway at previous "resistance" from the second bottom. Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or wanna discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer. ***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it takes only ONE trader to deny your trade.***
QLong
by UnknownUnicorn6734025
$USO $3.5c 4/24 Short-Term SwingUSO continues to follow the purple downtrend I drew last week. The short term bull trend couldn't hold and today opened below the support levels (shown as 1st the horizonal purple line). I was able to get cheap $3.5 calls at market open, and could've taken a 75% profit but decided to chase more gains (bad move) and the market closed with my options up about 30% instead. I'll be watching market open tomorrow to see if it'll be possible to squeeze some more profits out before selling. If not, I'll be selling before I get into the red.
AMEX:USOLong
by CameronDWills
1