3-bar bullish reversal on USD/JPYAfter an extended pullback on the USD/JPY daily chart, we think it is time for the pair to revert higher.
A bullish divergence formed with the RSI (2) and a bullish pinbar formed on after a failed attempt to break below 130. Being a round number, there's reasonable chance of demand down at that level, and yesterday's up day is part of a 3-day bullish reversal (Morning Star).
- The bias remains bullish above Friday's low, although bulls could seek bullish setups on lower timeframes if prices pull back towards Friday's high - or wait for a break of yesterday's high to assume bullish continuation.
- An initial target is around the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio / 133 handle
- A Second target could be around the monthly pivot / 200-day EMA / 50% retracement level
Swingtradingsetups
Is gold set for a ‘sympathy bounce’ towards 1900?It was a tough end to the week for gold bugs which saw the yellow metal plunge 5% from its YTD high. Yet support was found just above the 50-day EMA, and two inverted hammers (with slight bullish closes) show that bearish momentum is waning.
To my eyes it looks as though gold is ready to drift higher as part of a countertrend move against its NFP losses. Yet I am not yet convinced that this is the low of the bearish cycle.
Gold rallied an impressive 21% since its November low with little in the way of a pullback, and this bad spell could be an A-wave of an ABC correction (and potentially now drifting higher as part of a B-wave). And what could help lift if further is the fact the Jerome Powell was not as hawkish as expected, given the strength of the employment report. And that could allow for the USD to pull back and gold rise, as we approach key inflation data next week.
For now, I think it’s headed for $1900 (or there about), where I’d expect it to cap as resistance. At which stage we can assess its potential for a swing high and next leg lower, as part of a C-wave. Also note that the monthly and weekly pivot points reside around $1900
Interestingly, 100% projection of the initial move lower, from a $1900 pullback, sits around $1800 – just beneath the August high. SO that could provide a decent reward to risk ratio for bears if gold tops out around $1900.
USD/JPY swing low in place?Hawkish Fed members have helped to push US yields and the dollar higher. We saw some volatility across yen pairs on Friday after the favoured candidate to success Kuroda (and a dove) pulled out of the nomination, and Japan’s PM backed a more hawk candidate. If a hawk takes the helm, the yen will likely strengthen on hopes that the BOJ will abandon YCC. But until that happens, the BOJ remain dovish – and USD/JPY continues to appear oversold to my eyes.
A bullish pinbar formed on Friday after a failed attempt to break below the 130.67 high, and we’re now looking for bullish momentum to return and taker the yen towards the 200-day EMA around 133.75.
What I've learned after backtesting So, I love backtesting. Recently I've found my self in a 3% drawdown and needed to figure out what the cause of it was and trading at this moment won't give me that answer.
So, I decided to backtest.
Here is what I found:
1. I'm overtrading my system
I am a proud swing trader who got back into scalping the market in December 2022. It was mot my idea, but I thought I could handle it. I started out great, but then the market reminded me why I left the lower timeframes.
2. I'm not holding my trades long enough. Thanks Prop Firms!
Since joining a prop firm my mind has been changed to holding trades for less time than I normally would. I don't mind holding trades for weeks or months, but prop firms give you time limits during evaluation periods.
That was and still is a huge adjustment for me. Being a swing trader means I have to let my profits run. So, now, I've found a prop firm that will allow me to hold my trades with no time limits.
3. Not holding trades to my weekly and monthly targets.
I need to see past my daily targets. Normally my daily risk to rewards are between 1:1 and 1:2. I'm in drawdown because I'm not recovering from my losses with these risk to rewards.
So now, I'm only taking trades with RR over 1:2 and better. This way I'm trading less, holding longer(sometimes), and getting the best bank for my buck.
Backtesting helped me see my mistakes and how to correct them. This is called fixing your strategy.
Notice how I'm not changing my strategy. I'm tweaking my strategy to fit my mental capacity and trading style.
If you find you're in a drawdown and can't see, stop trading and backtest what you're currently doing and find a way to stop the behavior thats causing your drawdown. Then, stop doing that particular thing so you can see better results.
I pray this has helped you.
Let me know your key takeaway by commenting below.
NYSE - SwingTrading: updated WatchlistThe futures of the major market indices rose Sunday night which is a promising indication that the current little rally might turn into something bigger.
Attached is the link to our updated watchlist:
www.tradingview.com
All stocks on our watchlist fulfill Minervini's Trend-Template criteria and are selected using IBD's CAN SLIM criteria. Also, they all have low risk entry points. Only the best stocks make it onto our watchlists.
In the current bear market, it is highly important to look for stocks with increasing relative strength - those might be the leaders during the next bull market cycle.
GBPUSD SHORT OPPORTUNITY There is a descending triangle breakout happened on GBPUSD at 4-hour time frame, but there is also a strong support at 1.36780. So, if the price is able to break that support then you can Open a SHORT entry with the target of 1.34950 or 1.2 risk-reward ratio.
REMEMBER: Always do your own analysis before entry & take 2-3% risk per trade
HAPPY TRADING
GUJARAT SIDHEE CEMENT:Cement sector stock-6Sl-29
Stocks for the week-4
Hello everyone, this week we are going to invest in many different sectors.
One of which is CEMENT SECTOR(from infrastructure sector).
I will be posting best stocks of cement sector and the % allocation that stock should take in your portfolio.
STOCKS ALLOCATIONS
Stock 1: AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD 25%
Stock 2: ACC LTD 15%
Stock 3: INDIA CEMENTS 15%
Stock 4: JK LAKSHMI CEMENT 15%
Stock 5: SANGHI INDUSTRIES 10%
Stock 6: GUJARAT SIDHEE CEM 15%
Stock 7: BURNPUR CEMENT LTD 5% (penny stock)
So folks feel free to DM or comment.
SANGHI INDUSTRIES: Cement sector stock-5Sl-40.5
Stocks for the week-4
Hello everyone, this week we are going to invest in many different sectors.
One of which is CEMENT SECTOR(from infrastructure sector).
I will be posting best stocks of cement sector and the % allocation that stock should take in your portfolio.
STOCKS ALLOCATIONS
Stock 1: AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD 25%
Stock 2: ACC LTD 15%
Stock 3: INDIA CEMENTS 15%
Stock 4: JK LAKSHMI CEMENT 15%
Stock 5: SANGHI INDUSTRIES 10%
Stock 6: GUJARAT SIDHEE CEM 15%
Stock 7: BURNPUR CEMENT LTD 5% (penny stock)
So folks feel free to DM or comment.
ACC LTD: Cement sector stock-2Sl-1755
Stocks for the week-4
Hello everyone, this week we are going to invest in many different sectors.
One of which is CEMENT SECTOR(from infrastructure sector).
I will be posting best stocks of cement sector and the % allocation that stock should take in your portfolio.
STOCKS ALLOCATIONS
Stock 1: AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD 25%
Stock 2: ACC LTD 15%
Stock 3: INDIA CEMENTS 15%
Stock 4: JK LAKSHMI CEMENT 15%
Stock 5: SANGHI INDUSTRIES 10%
Stock 6: GUJARAT SIDHEE CEM 15%
Stock 7: BURNPUR CEMENT LTD 5% (penny stock)
So folks feel free to DM or comment.
AMBUJA CEMENTS: Cement sector stock-1Sl-265
Stocks for the week-4
Hello everyone, this week we are going to invest in many different sectors.
One of which is CEMENT SECTOR(from infrastructure sector).
I will be posting best stocks of cement sector and the % allocation that stock should take in your portfolio.
STOCKS ALLOCATIONS
Stock 1: AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD 25%
Stock 2: ACC LTD 15%
Stock 3: INDIA CEMENTS 15%
Stock 4: JK LAKSHMI CEMENT 15%
Stock 5: SANGHI INDUSTRIES 10%
Stock 6: GUJARAT SIDHEE CEM 15%
Stock 7: BURNPUR CEMENT LTD 05% (penny stock)
So folks feel free to DM or comment.