CHF - CENTRAL BANK ANALYSISObjective: Outlined in Switzerland's National Bank Act, the objective of the SNB is to ensure pricestability and, in so doing, to take due account of economic developments. The SNB equates price stability with a rise in consumer prices of less than 2% per annum. The SNB uses medium-term inflation forecasts as the main indicator for monetary policy decisions.
As of March, inflation in Switzerland stands at -0.2% Y/Y. Inflation in Switzerland has remained subdued since 2008. Since then, inflation has ranged between a peak of 1.4% in 2010 and a trough of -1.4% in 2015.
Situation: As inflation in Switzerland remains stubbornly low,the SNB Policy Rate is likely to remain as the worlds lowest interest rate at just -0.75%for the foreseeable future.
At their March meeting, the SNB kept rates unchanged, and maintained their view on CHF as "highly valued."
Additionally, the SNB reiterated that they are prepared to step up FX intervention as necessary.
Switzerland
CHF - WEAK BEARISHAs a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of CHF.
Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, it's impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy in the near future, given their overall neutral tone and a lack of meaningful developments regarding economic data.
The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out. Of course, risks still remains and many countries are now battling third waves of the virus - most notably many countries in Europe. As such, there is still a high degree of uncertainty and notable risks to the overall risk outlook; although, as a whole, it is improving.
CHF - WEAK BEARISHAs a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of CHF.
Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, it's impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy in the near future, given their overall neutral tone and a lack of meaningful developments regarding economic data.
The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out. Of course, risks still remains and many countries are still battling second waves of the virus. As such, there is still a high degree of uncertainty and notable risks to the overall risk outlook; although, as a whole, it is improving.
USD/CHF Long Position after Confirmation of SupportHere on CHF we are seeing two major important points that can determine the direction of our next trade.
First of all we see that the price is really close to a horizontal support. This can gives us a nice risk-reward for a long position.
Second of all, we see the price is following a trend line (roughly, it's not perfect admittedly). We can use this trend line to understand when we need to exit our long position.
Basically it means that the price is trending downwards, and we should be conservative with our positions. Don't hold it too long, and exit relatively early. That's why I drew the orange line to bounce at around 0.9073
All other information can be found on the chart. Good luck!
P.S. You might have noticed I posted an exact copy of this idea for CHF/USD.... oops. Turns out I had the pairs the wrong way around, and nobody actually looks at CHF/USD =\. So I decided to repost it here :).
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Disclaimer!
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Stadler Rail,Soon to be a BUY, 10% Trade!FA:
Dividend Yielding stock, therefore, one that a lot of investors consider in their portfolio.
Flight travel is lower, reopening of several rail line due to the increase in demand of rail travel.
TA:
Not currently a good buy area, would be wise to set buy orders near support line or treat it as a longer play and buy in now and ride the retracement till it begins to move up.
But always remember, if a stock falls by 2%- it has to then rise by 4% of the new price for you to be at break even again- based on that judgement, watch your trade entries wisely.
PS. Not investment advice, please be responsible and trade diligently and manage risk.
-Megalodon (Rahim)
You are welcome to post your ideas or share your point of view :)
SIX:SRAIL SWB:6RL
USD/CHF MONTHLY TIMEFRAME SHORTUSD/CHF market has been moving in bear territory for a while, with a short recovery that seems to be failing now considering how the price is breaking out of the short term corrective structure to the downside. With the Swiss Franc topping the currency strength meter charts, it looks like the dollar is gonna have to take the sucker punch.
Daily Target 01: 0.93765
Daily Target 02: 0.91823
Monthly Target 01: 0.86981
Monthly Target 02: 0.70809
Currency Strength Meter (as at 3 July 2020, 22:35);
1. SXY (Swiss Franc Index)
2. JXY (Japanese Yen Index)
3. AXY (Australian Dollar Index)
4. ZXY (New Zealand Dollar Index)
5. DXY (US Dollar Index)
6. CXY (Canadian Dollar Index)
7. BXY (Great British Pound Index)
SMI (Swiss Index) - in the verge of counter-trend rally reversalSMI has finished or is very near to finish its primary wave 2. After wave 2 is finished, wave 3 down should lead the index to new lows. If the index crosses down 9,380 the odds are that wave 3 has already began. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
SMI Index - Switzerland - long term move downThe Swiss index is tracing down super cycle C wave that should bring down its prices below 6200. There would be opportunities ahead in counter-trend moves, but the long-term is down. In the shorter timeframe the index is on the final stages of intermediate 2 up. After it finishes, wave 3 we bring the index to new lows. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
EURCHF Bearish In ActionKnowing the fact weaker EURO losing against the dollar overall and it's even performing low against swiss. I see bearish market in this minor pair as well. Technically price inside a descending channel and I assume if EURO gonna end up losing strength continuously against dollar then bear will obviously weigh on this minor pair as well which will continue the bearish trend further.
USDCHF is going UP?The reasons:
1. Today we had 1 new coronavirus case in Switzerland;
2. Daily Pinbar from STRONG Support zone;
I think the best way for entry is on 50% of Pinbar.
The target will be on the next STRONG Resistance zone, near 0.9840
Let me know, what do you think about this analys?
Thanks!