Switzerland
Chop! Chop!A well needed update to the EURCHF chart after previously tracking and failing to clear the ABC extension targets at 1.065x. For those following the previous charts before we broke down:
The yearly flows and expectations for 2020 will large be divided in a tale of two halves and as a result forecasts in the cross reflect that:
For the initial phase, we are tracking a test of the important 1.12x and 1.13x highs which will come via a zig-zag of 'orderly' Brexit triggering those who hedged in CHF to unwind and therefore CHF outflows, twinned with EUR funded inflows. This is the A' part in the sequence.
After clearing 1.12x and 1.13x and with a lot of work still to be done on the ladder, we transition into the second phase where I will look for a meaningful retrace to around the current lows at 1.092x which will provide the B'. These two phases will cover the majority of 2020 flows before completing a fresh breakup above 1.13xx in 2021 with a completed ABC sequence.
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Aussie certainty Vs Swiss uncertaintyAussi:
CPI (QoQ) (Q3): weak
Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3): stable
PPI (QoQ) (Q3): stable
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct): strong ( High sensitive)
Probability of rate cut: Aussie cash rate futures are showing 87% odds of the RBA staying flat for next week (Nov 5).
Swiss franc:
ZEW Expectations (Oct): weak
KOF Leading Indicators (Oct): strong
SNB's Jordan:
Cites the dangers of shrinking interest rate spread
Negative rates and readiness to intervene in FX still essential to keep the pressure on the franc
Cannot say when Switzerland will return to a positive rate
Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): strong
CPI (MoM) (Oct): weak
procure.ch PMI (Oct): forecast strong (due)
SMI: Bullish extension for Swiss Stocks to 10,400.The Swiss market has broken above the Rising Wedge's resisting trend line (dashed) and may follow the 1W Channel Up pattern (RSI = 63.217, MACD = 177.900, Highs/Lows = 173.0836) which started in early May. Based on the RSI break out it has an upside potential to at least 10,400.
Keep in mind that this break out is part of a larger bullish move as we illustrated in May (see the chart below). The Swiss Market Index (SMI) has entered a new long term Bull Cycle after it broke above its 12 year Resistance last April:
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Fed's decision and dollar reaction, the CB of Japan and EnglandFed Decision: Interest rates cut by 25 basis points after FOMC meeting.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower the rate to 0,25%.
FOMC does not have a fixed position: some members believe in further reduction, other members voted against any further reduction at this meeting. So could observe the lack of dollar sales.
Different positions are understandable. In the last couple of weeks, the US economy has shown good outcome, so the Fed may well take a break in easing cycle.
As for the USA. Statistics on the real estate market in the United States were published yesterday. The figures came out more than good. So, the start of construction indicator increased by 12.3% m/m (forecasts + 5%), and building permits in August grew by 7.7% m/m (analysts expected an average decrease of 1.3%).
In general, talking about a downtrend in the dollar is premature, and even a correction in the dollar value is in question. However, today we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar.
Today, the Bank of Japan has traditionally left monetary policy parameters unchanged. The Bank of Switzerland is also expected to leave the rate unchanged. However, both of these Central Banks are pursuing an ultra-soft monetary policy, there is simply nowhere to lower rates.
The Bank of Japan has not yet held a press conference following the meeting when we were completing news background. If there are no surprises, then our position is to buy the Japanese yen today. First of all, against the dollar and the euro.
The pound was under pressure yesterday. This was due to both statements by the EU that the risk of exit without a deal and macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Consumer inflation came out below per cent. Weak inflation on the eve of the Bank of England decision announcement on the parameters of monetary policy is a sign for pound sellers activation. Total up to the verdict announcement we prefer to stay away from pound positions. Moreover, before that, data on retail sales in the UK will be published. Since the Bank of England will announce the decision today, we will present our adjusted position on the pound tomorrow.
In the end, the pound is not the only instrument for trading. Gold purchases from local lows continue to be relevant. As well as oil sales from local highs. The situation with Saudi Arabia seems to have stabilized and markets generally calmed down.
SWISS FRANC CURRENCY INDEX (SXY) DAILY TIMEFRAME SHORTThe Swiss Franc currency index is currently moving in a series of lower highs and lower lows, characteristic of a downtrend. The price is clearly moving downwards with brief correctional pauses as shown by the ascending wedges and bear flag chart patterns. I am targeting a short trade toward the 97.8 area, which will be my profit taking zone. This area represents a potential buy zone as it is the bottom of the correctional structure. I certainly hope history repeats itself with this trade and the 90% rule sticks out!!!.
A break above 100 might change my bias a bit, but currently i am targeting the 07.8 price level for profit-taking.
CHF/SGD 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME LONGPrices on the CHF/SGD broke out of a interim downtrend on the daily chart, and we can anticipate further upwards movement. Price could find support on the 1.3650 if it forms a correctional structure in the form of a bear flag pattern, and then continue higher. Proper risk management is key especially when trading exotic currencies since there are huge margin requirements and they can be very volatile.
Swiss Market Index LONGLong SMI. Trend continuation. 200MA acts as support, supported by 100MA heading up. On daily TF RSI oversold with divergence COPPOCK confirmes it. Coppock above 0 line on Daily Bullish momentum price above 20MA. Looking for retest of structure usually SMI lags behind EU indices or FIB extension to reach new highs. GOOD LUCK
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Modum is currently running successful pilot tests with big pharma companies and last mile logistics provider in Switzerland.
Reasons for massive success for them and investors:
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Located in Switzerland, Zurich in the middle of Zug and Basel. Zug is the so called Crypto Valley and Basel is the Europes main vessel for big Pharma corporations. Besides that I don't think that I have to mention the Swiss quality. (Oops just did)
Their Pharma First Strategy. After the successful implementation in this sector their vision is to launch in multiple other sectors such as Healthcare, Chemical Industry, Heavy Machinery and even in the Food sector.
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USDCHF 50MA Daily Resistance ReduxFX_IDC:USDCHF suddenly shot up and stopped my previous short. So far it indeed got rejected at a daily forming a nice reversal bearish candle. Same parameters as previous trade.
Previous Trade Idea:
Entry: 1.0967
SL: 1.105
TP: (tp1) 1.005 (tp2) 0.9999 (tp3) 0.991
Any feedbacks are appreciated!
USDCHF FALSE CHANNEL BREAK OUT1)Price failed to break and close above resistance zone @ 0.99040
+ triple top formed @ 0.99500 zone
2) False Break and retest of descending price channel
3) Daily support broken @ 0.98402 zone
4) Previous Daily candle closed as an bearish engulfing
5) MA's spiralling to the downside
adding confluence to bearish momentum
6) A break of the trend line will warrant shorts
7) Target 1 @ 0.95039 zone = weekly support giving extra confluence
#GBPCHF [MAJOR SHORT] ABC Correction or The Start Of Wave 3!Weekly analyis of GBPCHF! Either way it is a short because, if it is wave B we can still catch the move down to complete C.
If it is the start of Wave 3, then we are catching the strongest move in the 5 wave sequence.
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