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Fundamental and Technical Analysis | FebuaryTable of Content: 1. Eurozone Inflation Data 2. US Economics Growth 3. NVDA 4. Commodities 5. Technical Analysis 1. Eurozone Inflation Data The Eurozone's inflation for the month of January has exceeded the previously estimated figures, as reported by MarketWatch on February 23. It has been emphasized by policymakers that the economy is undergoing a disinflation process, and a soft landing has been achieved. However, the recent surge in inflation within the European Union implies a substantial escalation in interest rates. 2. US Economic Growth The US economy experienced a less robust economic expansion than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, as evidenced by a downward revision in consumer spending. This adjustment has resulted in weaker economic growth (Bloomberg). The total amount of outstanding credit card debt in the United States has reached $986 billion, with an average interest rate of 20%. This marks the highest level of credit card debt since the 1980s and translates into an interest payment of $200 billion per year. These figures do not include other forms of debt such as mortgages, student loans, and car loans, which are likely to exacerbate the situation. At the same time, the US government is paying over $200 billion in interest payments The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index has risen from 5.3% to 5.4%, however, this data alone is insufficient to support the notion of disinflation. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been revised downwards from 2.9% to 2.7% (a decrease of 0.2%) from the preceding quarter. According to Bloomberg, the US economy experienced a weaker expansion than originally projected. Revised fourth-quarter inflation figures have been adjusted upward. Additionally, JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon stated that "The Federal Reserve has lost a little bit of control of inflation". He has been warning about the economy for a while and I believe that he knows something is cracking as we speak. 3. NVDA The stock price of $NVDA experienced double-digit growth. The stock price has risen by 100% since the beginning of the year. Revenues and profits have both decreased by 21% and 52% respectively on a year-over-year basis, and every segment of the business has exhibited a decline over the same period. The CEO placed significant emphasis on the importance of Artificial Intelligence, yet he sold stocks worth over $100 million prior to the market's significant downturn and may presently be engaged in additional sales. 4. Commodities The statement suggests an anticipated appreciation in the value of the US dollar, which is reflected in the downward movements of gold, silver, platinum, copper, and various grains such as corn, rice, and soybean. Conversely, energy commodities are experiencing an upward trend, with natural gas exhibiting a significant increase. 5. Technical Analysis The 21-day weighted ratio of equity-only put-to-call options is suggestive of a preponderance of puts in the market and indicates a significant degree of buying pressure. This metric has demonstrated a high degree of efficacy in identifying market highs and lows by suggesting a move in the opposite direction to the put/call ratio. Notably, during the present bear market, the ratio has achieved a 100% success rate. Furthermore, the current volume of call options is the highest on record, and retail investors are contributing $1.1 billion daily to the market. -Momentum indicators: RSI and MACD moving downwards and volume remain below average (bearish) As previously stated, " I will take the opportunity of a rise in equity markets to short BTC at higher levels". I have now filled all my short position on BTC in a confident manner. Below is my BTC outlook Conclusion: The recent market rally, spurred by technical indicators, high-quantity puts, and government emphasis on disinflation, has led to a surge in retail investment. As a result, prices for some assets have skyrocketed, and the quantity of long positions in the market has reached alarming levels. This suggests an overabundance of buying and a lack of liquidity that could cause the market to dip and potentially result in retail closures, as inflation has proven to be more persistent than anticipated by governments. I remain committed to my long-term investment plan, I am acknowledging the growing fissures in some economies that could lead to a catastrophic downturn. It is essential to remain vigilant and prepare for potential market turbulence in the future. As previously mentioned, my portfolio consists of short-term bonds, USD, SPX shorts, BTC Shorts, small quantity gold, and just acquired Natural gas contracts. For personal records but feel free to discuss or argue.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ssavi
SXP has been rallying well over the past few weeksSXP has been rallying well over the past few weeks, and the buying pressure that started at the bottom of the long-term descending channel suggests that the support at $0.20 could be one of the strongest retracement ranges for the long to medium-term. But note that these strong retracement moves on the weekly time frame can take the trend out of the fully bearish mode on the weekly time frame. In the last 24 hours, the currency has registered more than 20% price growth, creating a static break of the $0.32 resistance zone. Due to the heavy volume of trading done yesterday, as long as the SXP support is maintained in the $0.280-$0.290 range, we can expect the price growth to continue to the resistance in the $0.460-$0.490 range. Note that in the daily timeframe, the price trend is inside a smaller descending channel, and the ceiling of the channel was hit yesterday. Therefore, price correction can still be accompanied by demand until the previous floor of the spike candlestick is broken. One of the most reliable short-term supports is considered in the range of $0.301 to $0.306.
by MonoCoinSignal
1
Fundamental and Technical Analysis | January week 2, 2023Table of Content: 1. The World Bank 2. Jerome Powell 3. Mass Layoffs 4. Corporate Headline 5. Technical 1. The World Bank The World Bank has recently announced a slash in the forecast for global growth. This year's global growth forecast is reduced by nearly half, to just 1.7%, from its previous projection of 3%. It would be the third-weakest annual expansion in three decades, behind only the deep recessions that resulted from the 2008 global financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. “For most of the world economy, this is going to be a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind,” Georgieva said. “Why? Because the three big economies — U.S., EU, China — are all slowing down simultaneously.” Furthermore, The World Bank projects that the European Union’s economy won’t grow at all next year after having expanded by 3.3 percent in 2022. It foresees China growing 4.3 percent, nearly a percentage point lower than it had previously forecast and about half the pace that Beijing posted in 2021. 2. Jerome Powell In a recent statement led by Jerome Powell, he expressed his highest level of hawkish sentiment towards the economy. He noted that inflation is the foundation of a healthy economy and can require the central bank to take actions that are not necessary, but popular. Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with measurable benefits over time. But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy.” He wants to resolve the issue he initially created, previously, he was insistent that inflation was going to be transitory and now there is a clear indication that it is not and will require major efforts to bring it down. Why was Powell hawkish? Financial conditions are unintentionally loosening and he does not want to see it because that will increase the probability of a rebound in markets which could mean a rebound in inflation. - Some of the world’s largest asset managers such as BlackRock Inc., Fidelity Investments and Carmignac are warning markets are underestimating both inflation and the ultimate peak of US rates, just like a year ago. (Bloomberg) - “Central banks are unlikely to come to the rescue with rapid rate cuts in recessions they engineered to bring down inflation to policy targets. If anything, policy rates may stay higher for longer than the market is expecting,” a team of analysts including Jean Boivin, the head of the Institute, wrote last week. BlackRock is underweight developed market equities and it prefers investment-grade credit to long-term government bonds. - JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to 6% to fight inflation, which would be higher than most are expecting this year. 3. Mass Layoffs In order to bring down inflation, the Federal Reserve needs to slow down the economy. It is common sense to see that an economy will not go down until consumers stop spending which results in loss of employment. - One of Wall Street's biggest banks plans to lay off up to 3,200 employees this week, as it faces a challenging economy, a downturn in investment banking, and struggles in retail banking. It is one of the biggest rounds of layoffs at Goldman since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Goldman Sachs is having difficulties in the stock market, underperforming. - Bed Bath & Beyond reported a net loss for the quarter ending Nov. 26, 2022, of $393 million. That's a widening of 29.7% from the $276.4 million loss in the comparable quarter of 2021. Furthermore, the Q3 loss is worse than the retailer's projection last week of a $385.8 million loss. These inadequate results will lay off hundreds or thousands of employees in the company. On the other hand, the stock rallied by double digits, emphasizing again that the stock market likes when employees get fired to increase profit margins. - Coinbase announced Tuesday that it was laying off 950 people, about 20% of its staff. The job cuts come only a few months after another major round of layoffs. The crypto brokerage firm let 1,100 people go in June, about 18% of its headcount at the time. Again, the stock still rallied by double digits. It is notable to mention that the brother of the former Coinbase product manager, Nikhil Wahi, was sentenced Tuesday to 10 months for his role in a scheme to trade on confidential information about when the cryptocurrency exchange was going to list new tokens. A comparable phenomenon I start to visualize from these and recent layoffs is the 2021 stock splits. When firms announced stock splits in 2021, their stock would surge. In 2023, when a company announces layoffs, the stock surges higher (until they run out of liquidity). 4. Corporate Headline - The cyclical growth rebound, possibly triggered by the Chinese reopening, is being priced in or could go higher (major resistance at SPX $4,250). Macau sees deserted streets and Casinos after reopening (Reuters). - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. recorded its first quarterly revenue miss in two years, signaling the global decline in electronics demand is starting to catch up with the chip giant (Bloomberg). This issue will take months to recover as it has to adapt to the oversupplied market. - Apple is Broadcom’s largest customer and accounted for about 20% of the chipmaker’s revenue in the last fiscal year, amounting to almost $7 billion to stop buying key components, and instead, produce pieces themselves. - Blackstone Inc. lost a bid to end rent stabilization at Manhattan's largest apartment complex after a judge ruled in favor of tenants at Stuyvesant Town-Peter Cooper Village. - Wells Fargo, once the No. 1 player in mortgages, is stepping back from the housing market. This is a negative signal for the housing market, prices are too high and few can afford these houses. Once homeowners realize the Fed is not going to ease interest rates anytime soon, the housing market is going to slow down dramatically and individuals are going to lose their homes. Renters and Airbnb will slow down real estate further as they will not be able to pay their mortgages and will be forced to get rid of the houses, greatly increasing the supply. 5. Technical Analysis - Momentum indicators: RSI and MACD moving toward positive momentum and volume remains below average (bullish). - If S&P500 breaks the sloping resistance (channel), prices will rise significantly as individuals will assume the market is already priced-in, plus, showing: a break in pattern resistance; higher-low; and bear market sentiment reducing. - This is a similar pattern to the 2000 market crash where SPX broke a major trend and resistance, then followed to fall 34%. I point out the negative indication in most of my recent analyses, this is because the negative indications are far greater than any positive singular indication in this market environment. Overall, I have not changed my outlook and I am keeping my government bonds. I will take the opportunity of a rise in equity markets to short BTC at higher levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ssavi
SPX Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for SPX is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 3922.13, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 4100.96, where the recent high is. Take profit will be at 3741.65, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SP:SPXShort
by VantageMarkets
2
SNP500 SPX500 US500 Mid-Term Bearish Expectation Help me keep on posting by clicking on BOOST! (it's like "liking") This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF (IS THE KING) - ETC
UShort
by SmartMoneySource
$SXPUSDT Long SignalAs before BINANCE:SXPUSDT has been really profitable for us. $SXP is going for a short term correction towards the entry points i have mentioned. After this there will be a huge volume pushing it towards the top. The setup i am using is as below: Binance Futures Long ( 1 - 5x ) Entry : 0.36 - 0.45 One-time-Entry : 0.41 - 0.43 Targetted Profits: Short Terms : 0.48 , 0.51 , 0.53 , 0.5560 , 0.62 , 0.65 Long Term : 0.83 , 0.95 , 1.20 , 1.60 , 2.12 As a good trader, please becareful with your money always! Use a Stop Loss to prevent massive damages, invest only 10% of your available capital when trading in Futures. Stop Loss: 0.3350 (or trailing). ------- MetaFutures.
Long
by MetaFutures
2