The Ascending Triangle and 3rd Wave of Price RalleyThis is also a complementary analysis to our latest ETH analysis on Daily chart.
If the current wave (wave 3 of 5) to be constant, we can estimate the breaking out of the ATH (as the major resistance) and formation of a new ATHs on 5th wave rally.
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A PREDICTION ON BITCOIN PRICE MOVEMENTS IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBERThe cryptocurrency market, especially bitcoin, is well-known for its uncertainty and high volatility. In our analysis in late August 2021, we successfully predicted the price corrections of bitcoin for the $44-$42k channel.
Corrections are necessary for any dynamic market as they provide investors with the opportunity to re-enter the game and take profit from swing trade and even long-term investments.
In this analysis, we have adopted:
- 4H Chart Date
- IntorTheBlock.com in-chain data analytics for fundamentals
Note:
- As per reports, the available bitcoins on exchanges are the lowest amount since November 2020, which indicates that the whales are buying the dip, and most of HODLers tend to keep their bitcoins for higher prices.
Bitcoin's recent price correction was majorly due to the manipulations by the major exchanges to liquidate the long and high leveraged positions, which resulted in more than $3.5 billion liquidations so far.
- Bitcoin Dominance is going to be re-established in the market. However, we need to consider the fact that the cryptocurrency market has been expanded vastly, and the market is not restricted to some coins anymore. NFTs, DeFi, fast-growing protocols like ADA, SOL, and Polygone, in addition to ETH 2.0, are now competing to get their share from the market dominance. Therefore, expecting a dominance rate like 60% 0r 70% for Bitcoin is not very predictable, and Bitcoin will continue its story with dominance rates ranging between 45% to 55% in the future.
In this analysis, we have considered the dynamic resistance (tactical level) around $48-50K, which plays a crucial role in breaking out of the critical resistance level of 52-54K.
The emerging golden cross on the daily chart (EMA 50 upward cross with EMA 200) indicates the significant momentum for the new rally. Moreover, on the 4H chart, the current candles strive to break out the Ichimoku cloud, and it will construct a tension in the price by the remaining days of this week.
As indicated in prediction candles (yellow color), we expect a sharp uptrend from tactical resistance for breaking the key resistance of 52-54K. We predicted a quick breakout; however, adequate volume is needed to confirm this action.
Due to this sharp and quick breakout, there will be a high tension are on the days ahead, ranging between $55K and $59k zone as there will be high-pressure sales for taking profit by the swingers. Scalpers can enjoy this moment. This portion of the prediction will take 2-3 weeks.
If the bulls can overcome the challenges in the High Tension Zone and the big brothers (big exchanges), don't manipulate the market to liquidate the high leveraged positions, we expect by the End of October, the bitcoin price can have a successful breakout from ATH (64-65k) strategic resistance.
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POSSIBLE DEEP PRICE CORRECTION ON BTC/USDTThis is a possible scenario for BTC price correction to $42-43K support line.
This is an idea, however it depends how BTC price will recover its path to break the $50k resistance zone!
The timeframe of 30 August to 15 September is very important time for Bitcoin.
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Crab Harmonic Pattern Scenario for BTCIn this scenario we have considered the formation of the Crab pattern for BTC/USDT on the daily chart.
The recent correction which led BTC price to fall below $30K price level can be considered as the formation of CD leg of Crab Harmonic Pattern.
In the meantime, a round bottom formation for BTC is going to complete. Necessary to note that, BTC is yet in a descending channel and for a few weeks we have seen the formation of daily candles under the channel midline.
We would take the following possibilities into consideration:
1. Due to the FUD resulted by Gray Scale ETF release, market has the bearish mindset. However, the oscillators confirm that this FUD is not as strong as mid May 2021 FUD.
2. The sales pressure at this level is not much as before, as daily volume indicates lower. It would be better to describe this phase as a part of C phase of accumulation and for sure price is sensitive to retail HODLers sales.
3. The descending channel may resemble lower prices, could be up to $28K area, which can provide good opportunities for new purchases.
4. We expect high volatility in the price for this week as bulls try to get back $31K price levels.
5, Sales pressure will continue by the end of July 2021, and will decrease by reaching to the end of the month as bears will lose the power of sales.
6. August, as also mentioned in our previous analysis, would initiate the resuming phase of bullish move.
Formation of the Crab pattern, will be completed by end of this week, and for the next week we expect the resuming swings for retaking the price zones above $31K.
The maximum TP for this formation is about $38 K, however, we estimate it for August 2021.
An Idea on Bitcoin Possible Corrections During these days we are hearing about deep corrections and the predictions based on the S2F model. Therefore we decided to check the possible scenarios in the long term.
Today we have seen that after a long time we had a Death Cross on the Daily chart, however, since EMAs are lagging lines, and especially 50 and 200, we don’t take it so serious as it should happen due to the sharp correction from $64K to $30k.
Our assumption is the formation of a extended Curved Bottom Pattern in General, which may lead to a Cup and Handle Pattern.
Meanwhile, we are facing an inherent Bearish Bat which, if formed, can acts as a bullish trap.
Based on the Daily Pivots, The S1 Support Line of the current pivot will form the bottom of the Curve Bottom and we estimate it around $20-25K (Depending on the correction momentum and the volume of the sales pressure). It is also possible that price touch $19-18k but very quick and bounce up sharply from there.
From our point of view this correction can heal the bullish rally and if the pattern goes well, in July and August, traders can accumulate in the dip and the market cycle shift from rookies to the professional bulls.
This is just an idea and not a recommendation.
We’ll be thankful to have your comments and ideas as well.
Wishing you all a profitable trade ahead!
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Possible Head and Shoulder FormationDuring the Current uptrend, we considered the possibility of formation of a Head and Shoulders (HAS) Top.
If the formation fails, still we are hopeful for breaking the ket resistance in the way of the trend, otherwise, we may have a correction to lower levels.
Once Looking at the chart may be other patterns form and if any change we will share here with you.
The Major Symmetric Triangle of BitcoinHere we come with an idea that after a long time, Bitcoin could successfully start a bullish trend starting from Jan. 2020 by successfully breaking up the last trend ATH (as its major resistance). The proceeding month candles also confirmed the bullish trend. However, like every trend, this trend also faced with major obstacles which is natural. No Bullish trend can continue without a pause!
By this we come to a point that a Symmetric Triangle formed, with routes in Feb. 2020 where the Elon Musk come to the game and then turned his effect into the market with negative tweets during May.
Formation of Symmetric Triangle
Such a Formation can be considered natural as:
1. Crypto Market is too Young and has not an experience like this before. Therefore formation of such a pattern is psychologically possible!
2. The continuous negative media waves also results in formation of such a pattern.
3. The rapid and sharp formation of Mass bullish trend since Feb. 2021 resulted most of new players willing to enter into the market, miss the chance! We should consider this fast that bitcoin is a new market for most of people.
4. The Trend needs to be examined and pass the Acid Test. Also such a pause in the trend provides wider opportunities for new players to come
We considered a standard time from for the major events and the possible time frames that a new recovery can come into the ground and recover the bullish trend. However, Symmetric Highs and Lows on this frame is not impossible (if we consider the month timeframe). However, every monthly candle can show us new highs and lows in itself.
AN IDEA ON BITCOIN CORRECTIONHi
Today at SynchroBitTeam we come to analyze the idea of possible correction of BTC price to $30K Resistance Zone!
As per chart, we have recognized the Cypher Patterns on the trend.
The trend suffers from an inherent resistance zone and attempts hardly to break it out, however, due to the low volume during these days, breaking this resistance may be hard or impossible.
In the meantime, RSI is also showing a new divergence (please check with your own chart).
However, the overall correction to $30K should not be considered as a "heart breaking" event! We estimate that the further correction below $30K is too hard to be occurred since the dynamic resistance on the exchanges order books are indicating that the bulls are serious to keep the trend above the line however, since they like to make money, they tend to create more dips into the trend line and buy the holdings much easier and more cost effectively (which is highly wise strategy)!
However, if the correction to $30K channel want to happen, the Price Line of $34K is very important and can be set as an Alarm.
Remember, corrections are not bad idea, since they create new cycles and cycles are very necessary for bullish trends. Otherwise we would face with range markets which are not interesting for new investors.
In this scenario, the pull back trend (if initiates from $30K support zone ) will interact with the fibo levels dynamically and we'll see good opportunities for Short and Long positions.
Remember, this is just an idea! Market has always high potentials for miracles and sudden changes! Therefore, please always consider all risks before you click for taking any position.
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An Idea on BTCUSDT Upcoming trendsIn this analysis, we have considered the following assumptions:
1. The major bearish correction started from ATH to $30K also had affects on two passive daily candles to terminate the deadly resonance wave of that fall.
2. Since 23rd May 2021, market has started a new trend, aiming the recovery of its bullish trend. Therefore, The pinned candle on 23rd May has been considered as the initial candle of the recovery waves.
It's necessary to note that this is just an idea and not a financial advice! This scenario needs a higher volume in the market.
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BTC/USDT Symmetric Movements ForecastIn this forecast, we have used a "Symmetric" Approach to the recent movements of BTC/USDT pair. Since the fluctuations indicate a singularity in their trend angle (by -14 and +14) at both support and resistance, we adopted this approach. The analysis represents four strategies for high velocity and low velocity bullish and bearish markets. Despite of the unknown fundamental issues that affect the market trend, by considering them "null" Bitcoin bearish and bullish forecast seems to be valid in lower timeframes, including 1H and 15 Minutes. The estimations can be tested easily by trading on SynchroBit Hybrid Exchange.