SP500 - Cycle Analysis; New V-Bottom24 Dec 2018 - V-Bottom Trough:
This marks a clean V-bottom. Both the 227-ROC and 114-ROC showed simultaneous positive acceleration after price reacing its low. Shortly after, both crossed their 57-SMA almost in sync — increasing the probability of a sustained bullish move. Price confirmed this by breaking resistance and forming a V pattern. This was further validated by the centered moving average crossover (114-CMA crossing above 227-CMA).
25 Mar 2020 - Deep COVID Crash Trough:
During this phase the priced broke below the support, creating a deep trough. Altough both ROC lines initially showed strong negative acceleration due to the COVID-19 crash, they soon reversed above their 57-SMAs, signaling a major shift in momentum. This coincided with the price breaking above the key resistance which was also crossed in 2019 when confirming the old V-pattern. After this breakout, a brief pullback followed before the uptrend resumed with increasing strength.
22 Jun 2021 to 19 Dec 2023 - Pattern
During the initial period a bearish divergence was visible in the ROC, nevertheless price and rate of change both declined making a low in early October 2022. A technical pattern began to form, which appears to align more closely with a symmetrical triangle; So when measuring its height and projecting it from the breakout point aligns with the new all-time highs that were reached on 27 June 2025.
21 Mar 2025 - New Cycle Trough
A new V-bottom formed shortly after the current cycle began. Both ROC indicators had already crossed their SMAs to the upside, showing early signs of positive acceleration, days before of price broke through the resistance and reached the new record high.
The 227-SMA is likely to cross from below the fast SMA while a possibility of a pullback increase.
Following that, the 114-CMA will probably has the chance to cross back the 227-CMA, with the price potentially confirming a new support level and resuming its uptrend - in line with the broader cycle timeline.
Synchronicity
Semiconductors, Crypto and Market SynchronicityYou can't throw a cpu chip without hitting someone that is complaining about how the market is overvalued.
You just need to look at the buffet indicator to see the total market is over x2 overvalued.
What most people are not looking at is why.
This idea attempts to highlight semiconductors influence on the overall market and expansion of the options market that now feeds the machine.
If you were not paying attention you may have missed the options market expanding nearly 2x since the chip shortage started.
A chip shortage heavily influenced by the trade war with china staring in 2018.
A chip supply that grew from 33 billion in 1987 doubled nearly ever 2 years (moores law) to 553 billion in 2021.
Is it a coincidence that S&P500s value grew at nearly the same rate since 1986 (green line)?
Is it a coincidence that bitcoins big breakout in Dec 2020 broke above the demand for semiconductors (miners/graphics card demand)?
Is it a coincidence that Apple + Tesla are the driving the options market since it's breakout in Jan 2020.
Is it a coincidence Apple, Tesla, Bitcoin and the options market peaked at the same time Nov 2021.
Synchronicity