Educational : Diversification, systematic vs unsystematic riskWhen it comes to investing and trading, risk is a constant factor that requires careful consideration. Let's explore the concepts of systematic and non-systematic risk:
Deeper Dive
Market risk and non-diversifiable risk are other names for systematic risk. It is the kind of risk that is intrinsic to the entire market or a particular area within it and cannot be completely avoided by diversification. This means that you cannot totally protect yourself from systematic risk, regardless of how diversified your investment portfolio is. There are many ways of mitigating risk in the market but due to the nature of the market there is no way to completely eliminate this risk element. There will also be a certain level of risk that you need to account for.
Unpredictability:
The unpredictability of systemic risk is one of its difficult elements. These risk factors frequently come as a surprise and can appear quickly, making it challenging to plan for their effects. Even seasoned investors can be caught off guard by events like global economic crises or political turmoil because of the intricate network of interconnected factors that affect financial markets. There is also the fact that markets are inherently fractal. You can read more about this in my publication on how the market is fractal. (Will be in related ideas)
Unsystematic Risk on the other hand refers to the risk that is specific to a particular company, industry, or asset and can be mitigated through diversification. Unlike systematic risk, which affects the entire market, unsystematic risk is unique to individual entities and can be reduced or eliminated by spreading investments across different assets. Some of these risk might be in individual companies or assets but do not have a widespread impact on the entire market. Examples include management changes, product recalls, lawsuits, technological innovations, and changes in consumer preferences. These factors can significantly influence the performance of a single company's stock or asset. There is also sector or industry specific risk. If you work for a company that produces technical indicators, changes in regulations affecting the financial industry or a downturn in the technology sector could impact the company's performance. Investing solely in one sector exposes your portfolio to a higher degree of unsystematic risk.
Unsystematic risk can be mitigated using many strategies. Two popular methods listed below.
Asset Allocation or portfolio diversification: Allocating your investments across different asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) can help mitigate the impact of unsystematic risk. Different asset classes may respond differently to market events. Where one asset starts to go down another might start to go up and the fall and rise of these assets might be at different severity allowing you the flexibility to deploy risk management strategies to maximise on the rising asset
Hedging: Using financial derivatives like options and futures contracts can provide a way to hedge against specific systematic risks, such as currency fluctuations or interest rate changes.
Diversification in one of the big factors in reducing your risk. As the diagram shows the more diversify the portfolio becomes the less subject it is to unsystematic risk but you will eventually get to a equalising point where you still have to account for systematic risk.
It is important to note that diversifying your portfolio is not just simply investing in as many assets or industries as possible. This process needs to be a calculated application. If not, what can happen is that you fill your porfolio with random assets and stocks that end up having bad correlation between each other causing you to lose. When you buy on one asset you will lose on another constantly making it hard for you to find and edge/alpha
Systematicrisk
BUY: IOT/USD (Systematic Trend Following)## OUR APPROACH:
- 100% Systematic Trend Following Trading
- Trading Long and Short Signals with a medium-term time frame to capture +50% price moves
- Always protect your position with a stop loss (initial stop loss turns into trailing stop loss)
## TRADING LONG SIGNALS:
- Go long as the price closes above the "orange" solid Channel Line
- The "purple" dotted line always shows your current stop loss (it is trailing)
- Ride the trend as the price moves up
- Exit the position only if the price closes below the trailing stop loss
##TRADING SHORT SIGNALS:
- Go short as the price closes below the "orange" solid Channel Line
- The "purple" dotted line always shows your current stop loss (it is trailing)
- Ride the trend as the price moves down
- Exit the position only if the price closes above the trailing stop loss
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Trading on Binance:
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Trading on Bitfinex:
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Trend Following Trading – How to make a fortune in Bull, Bear and Black Swan Markets
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Market Wizards – Interviews with Top Traders
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ARE INVESTORS PREPARING FOR WAR BREAKING OUT?What has Bitcoin and Lockheed Martin got in common? I show how both have been resistant in recent weeks to corrections in the S&P500, and one possible contributing factor. Why is any of this important? Well - war is a serious systematic risk to all traders and investors. (See disclaimer below).
Am I saying there is going to be a war? I am NOT! Am I predicting war? I am NOT !
So what I am saying is:
1. Fears of war - real war - could be one important contributing factor among several others, that drives people to put there value into a very volatile instrument such as Bitcoin. In other words investors and small people are so scared that they willing to sail very 'unpredictable seas'.
2. The gap up on Lockheed Martin at 23rd April was not closed. Price began following a parabolic curve that was resistant to the correction in the S&P500.
3. Lockheed Martin is without doubt about war. This is where the US Government will push their money when preparing for a war. Preparation for war does not mean war will happen!
4. You and I won't be told by the US Govt, ' Hey guys, we're going to war... get ready. '. These are very deep decision-making issues that happen well outside the knowledge of the public.
5. The gap up on 23rd April on LMT may be your only signal of what's possibly coming.
Previous post in April below:
FAT DISCLAIMER: This post is speculative. It is labelled 'long' only because the technical picture suggest further price advancement in the longer term based on the current 8H trend analysis. This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any other instrument. No liabilities accepted for your loss should you make decisions or feel influenced by this post. In other words, sue yourself if you lose your money.
THIS COULD BE A SIGN OF WARYou won't find much on this in traditional mainstream media outlets. They're usually late. Events unfolding in relation to the Strait of Hormuz are either hotting up or have already happened.
I've been tracking LMT for some time. I couldn't understand the sudden pulse on daily shares on 23rd April. I had wondered if it meant war started but nothing was in the mainstream media. What does LMT produce? Who fund them? Read up!
Well...well, the chatter come out of that region through non-traditional channels is that something is happening on the ground.
Then strangely yesterday I spotted moves on the eastern and western markets suggesting an about turn - across forex and market indices. You wouldn't have seen that unless you were looking across 10 min time frames.
What's next? Well I'm not a news channel. So, get going and do your own research. This is about systematic risk.
Golden week isn't over yet. Strangely the Yen is powering up madly and AUD is buckling. Think - outside 'the box'.
This post is speculative and may be totally wrong. Do not make financial decisions based on this. But you could get prepared if you find sufficient evidence. Getting prepared is about the biggest thing in trading.
High Probability Intraday Trade Setup for Natural Gas FuturesThe following are trades setup ideas in 15 mins chart for Natural Gas Futures .
There are 2 distinctive dotted lines labeled as
1. AI's Intraday Resistance
2. AI's Intraday Support
These 2 signals are generated by machine learning AI robots as a high probability trade setup where to long or short.
If price action was above the AI's Daily resistance line AND price closed above the Pivot Point line, the idea is to long and take profit at Pivot Point R1 line
Instead of relying on 100% discretionary (human) trading, the robots will provide trade execution plan and it is entirely up to the human trader's decision to follow.
High Probability Intraday Trade Setup for Crude Oil Futurehe following are trades setup ideas in 15 mins chart for Crude Oil Futures .
There are 2 distinctive dotted lines labelled as
1. AI's Intraday Resistance line
2. AI's Intraday Support line
Range Play
If price action was above the AI Intraday support line, the idea is to Long and take profit at Pivot Point or AI Intraday Resistance line region.
OR
Momentum Play
If price action was below the AI Intraday support line AND price closed below Pivot Point S1 line, the idea is to short and take profit at Pivot Point S3 price region. Traders may choose to take partial profit at Pivot Point S2 region too depending on his/her position sizing to lock profits and to maintain an existing open position as risk-free.
Instead of relying on 100% discretionary (human) trading, the robots will provide trade execution plan and it is entirely up to the human trader's decision to follow.
While it is optional, it is a good practice, in general, to trade this product during the US Future Market Session when there are higher volume and liquidity.
UFO revelations could rock the world's financial markets. This is under the category of 'Beyond Technical Analysis'. It is about systematic risk i.e. something previously unrecognised that causes major upset in markets. What's *UFOs* got to do with this? Just about everything.
Your world has been built on a sense of security that we are alone in the universe. People's religious beliefs, their sense of who is in power and so on has depended on that for the last few hundred years.
Now as World *UFO* day - 2nd July 2018 - approaches there is emerging evidence that *UFOs* are real. I do not say that everybody will suddenly change their belief systems overnight. What a lot of people do is, avoid or ignore hard evidence - especially the kind that causes them anxiety. But some people in a minority are different - they are swayed by evidence.
What does it mean if *UFOs* are real - and no longer a joke. For starters it means that there is a power greater than governments and financial institutions. That is then likely to cause fear and uncertainty in the minds of some. What if the *UFO* people decide to take control - for example - is a thought that will cross the minds of some.
Read around and see how secret files due to be released from the National Archives were withheld.
Further references:
See this article: Are we alone? Scientists revisit the question of aliens before National UFO Day
And
Secret dossier reveals British spies spent half a century trying to catch a UFO so they could use its alien technology to build SUPERWEAPONS
Dr David Clarke's guide - 15 pages cross-referenced to the National Archives.
There's something going on out there and they don't want you to know about it.