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T-BOND

Bonds as safe-haven asset#Bonds #US10Y #YieldBond Will the US 10-year bond break the descending channel that has held for more than 50 years? The price of the bond is inversely proportional to its yield. This has been falling in value drastically as its profitability increases, but will it manage to overcome the resistance exerted by a descending channel for decades? If we take into account the deflationary measures taken by the FED in recent times, and there is a high probability of entering an economic recession, there are very few assets that act as refuge assets. The bonus is one of them. Other assets ​could be gold, precious metals, and dollar, which has acted as a safe-haven currency in previous recessions. Cryptocurrencies could play a very important role too, but to do so it must overcome the current correlation with stocks market. We recommend adding to your portfolios some safe-haven assets, and grow over time depending on whether or not the circumstances of a recession occur.
ULong
by jumper_stars_trading
BARNBRIDGE (BONDUSDT) correction before more gain ❌🧨Hello 🐋 Based on the chart, after long time range market (parallel channels located on the chart) and correction, we have appropriate amount of the volume for the price and break out of the red trend line and channel to the upside ✔️ before more gain we can see correction to the downside, at least close to the lower Fibonacci supports ❌🧨 Please, feel free to share your point of view, write it in the comments below, thanks 🐋
BShort
by MadWhale
1
BONDUSDT(BarnBridge) Daily tf Range Updated till 17-07-22BONDUSDT(BarnBridge) Daily timeframe range. if you come to think of it or look closely, you can see there are some huge gaps in between its range space. why! cause of continuous moves downtrend without strong test point. until 16 july 2022 retrace. thus creating the space and makes it a high risk and reward alt. not just that the volume on this alt been very low in that case it was too easy to move around by any p and d groups.
B
by cryptoforever1
U.S. Bonds – It’s Major Uptrend Has Broke BelowU.S Bonds market is larger than the largest American companies combined, therefore it is important to also track the health of the bonds market. • U.S Bonds size - market value estimated $46 trillion • Largest American companies size - market capitalization estimated $42 trillion The bonds market moves in tandem with the stock markets, meaning when the general trend of the bonds is up, so will be the stock markets. Similarly, when the bond markets are bear, so will the stocks. The decades of U.S. Bonds uptrend were broken in the month April 2022. This indicates a long-term downtrend for the bond markets. Source and reference: As of 08 Jul 2022 from companiesmarketcap in U.S. The total companies 6,332, total market cap: $81.241T. The largest American companies by market cap, 3,269 companies 3,269, total market cap: $41.66 T. As of 2021, the size of the bond market (total debt outstanding) is estimated to be at $119 trillion worldwide and $46 trillion for the US market, according to Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA). Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Feel free to leave any comments below, I love to exchange ideas with you. Also to check the video link below...
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by konhow
How long could deflation last? What about bonds?As most commodities are currently collapsing, it is very hard to keep believe that inflation is going to go higher from here. June could be the first month with a negative MoM CPI print, but it probably won't be the last. As deflation is taking inflation's seat, bonds have been looking attractive for some time. Essentially we got a blow of top in yields (capitulation bottom in bonds), and now bonds are rallying. It's totally normal as bonds took out the lows, and are now showing major strength at a time where the dollar is strong, while commodities, stocks and real estate looking weak. The truth is that there is no escape from a major global recession. Commodities could fall a lot more until Central banks reverse course. There is too much debt and the only way to get out is by printing, while all the rate hikes will only eventually result in a crash. It's just that rate hikes have a delayed effect and most investors haven't realized what is coming yet. Is the inflation story over? I don't think so. We are just in a very a nasty recession, that could lead to a deflationary collapse. Essentially a liquidity crunch that would cause investors to capitulate, and then force the Fed to step in to save the system. There is no way the Fed will hike rates more than 0.5-1% from here, and there is no way the Fed won't be forced to cut rates and resume QE by June 2023. The bond market reversing like this is an indication that the Fed is about to make a mistake by raising rates once or twice in the next few months, as bond yields are already coming down. It's interesting that bond yields rose more than in 2018 before they reversed and fell below the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), yet FFR is currently 0.75% lower than when the Fed paused in 2018. Could easily see FFR getting down to 0 in the next 12-24 months as the financial system faces collapse yet again, but I don't see bond yields going as low as they did during Covid. What I see is long duration bonds going up to the key breakdown zone, around 130-135 on TLT or bond yields going up to 2.4-2.6% before moving higher again. Essentially I do see a major deflationary episode ahead, I do believe bonds can go up, I don't believe the Fed will ahead of the problem and that there isn't much they can do. However at the same time I don't believe that the inflation story is over, as I do see higher inflation coming once we are done with this episode. Why? Because a lot of production of stuff will go offline, while governments print a ton of money to save the system. Less goods, more money... No way inflation won't happen again. The debt bubble is popping and long term this is inflationary. So far we've seen bonds divergence from their long term trends, first with a blow off top, and then with a rapid decline that swept the lows. Could we get back into the main trend? It's possible, but I don't think so. All I see is a similar retest to what we go in 2021, where bonds broke down and then retested the breakdown level before going lower. TLT will fill the gap and then decide where it wants to go. Definitely wouldn't be surprised if bonds chopped in a certain area for a while, but ultimately I think we are going lower. Of course we could go lower even during a deflationary period, as everyone is liquidating whatever they can. If people need dollars, they will sell anything for them, including dollars. At the moment bonds are still very attractive, yet this doesn't mean that if people need cash they will hesitate to sell them.
NASDAQ:TLT
by BitcoinMacro
4
A Simple Swing Trade Setup for Euro-BTP FuturesSince earlier this year, all European bonds have extended losses due to the impact of Ukraine war. The downtrend is persistent; therefore, the only trading action we will take is to short the market. Among all European bonds, the Italian government bond (Euro-BTP Futures) drops somewhat in an orderly fashion (breakouts with clear pullbacks). Therefore, we will be looking to enter sell positions in this market in the near future. Euro-BTP futures has recently made a new low at the support area of 132.50, which indicates that the downtrend is still very valid. The price is currently in the bearish impulse stage, therefore, there is no immediate trading action for us to take. Our plan is to wait for the price to retrace back to the 138.00 area (previous support level), and from there we will watch the price action and enter sell positions. Euro-BTP futures is currently among the top products to watch in our passive trading portfolio because the movement is not as sharp as other European bonds, such as the Euro-BUND futures (German gov’t bond) and Euro-OAT futures (French gov’t bond), where they fall without much of a retracement. We will update this post as the price comes near our entry zone.
EUREX:FBTP1!Short
by NicoBeau_Capital
A Simple High Probability Swing Trade Set Up for UK Gilt FuturesSince the January of 2021, UK Gilt futures has been trending down sharply. One of the main reason why I always enjoy trading bond market is that its trend is very clear and also persistant. The price often follows a textbook style of breakouts and retracements, occurring at clear support and resistance levels. Recently, the price has made a new low and aims to test the next support area of 115~116. This indicates that the down trend is still very valid and we are only looking to enter sell positions. The price is currently at the impulse stage, which means that there is no immediate action for us to take now. We are looking to sell the pull backs from the previous support level of 120 area. We expect the price to retrace back with a bearish flag pattern. Once the sell limit orders are hit, our first target is the next support level of 115, and our second target is the 112 area. This is a good passive trading set up where you can combine with your intraday trading to diversify your portfolio. We will update this post after the price comes near the entry zone.
OANDA:UK10YBGBPShort
by NicoBeau_Capital
US10Y - Caution highHi everyone, The chart is valid since 1986 and there is only one person who trades that channel is Warren Buffett. Now its on really good resistance and as you know there is a counter correlation with the 10Y Bond Rates and Commodities (not always ofc, the real interest is also impartant bla bla). My expectation is that market has priced most of the FED's interest rate decision for the May and June. If quantitative tightening (QT) doesn't kill the markets, I expect the GOLD and SILVER to go higher levels. They also on the support lines. We will see..
TVC:US10YShort
by bruno_iksil
T-Bond Futures (ZB1!), H4 Potential for a drop!Type: Bearish drop Resistance : 15008 Pivot: 14912 Support : 14723 Preferred case: With price moving close to the ichimoku cloud resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our Pivot at 14912 in line pullback resistance and 78.60% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 14723 in line with the latest swing low support and 127.20% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: If prices were to reverse, price may potential rise towards our 1st resistance at 15008 which is in line with the pull back resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Fundamentals: Federal Reserve officials warn steeper rate hikes may be necessary to subdue the hottest inflation in four decades which causes investors selling their bonds.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by Genesiv
🆓BarnBridge (BOND) Feb-28 #BOND $BOND The buying power is still appearing at the $7 zone, it might form a Double Bottom pattern to recover back to the $11 zone in March. But if it continues to lose the $7 zone, we will consider buying it back at the $6 or $5 zone 📈RED PLAN ♻️Condition : If 1-Day closes ABOVE 7$ zone 🔴Buy : 7 🔴Sell : 8 - 9.5 - 11 📉BLUE PLAN ♻️Condition : If 1-Day closes BELOW 7$ zone 🔵Sell : 7 🔵Buy : 6 - 5 ❓Details 🚫Stoploss for Long : 10% 🚫Stoploss for Short : 5% 📈Red Arrow : Main Direction as RED PLAN 📉Blue Arrow : Back-Up Direction as BLUE PLAN 🟩Green zone : Support zone as BUY section 🟥Red zone : Resistance zone as SELL section
BLong
by CryptoStation
1
BTC and SPX correlation to US 10 year - 2 year spreadThe hypothesis is that since 2018 BTC has behaved like a high beta equity. As monetary conditions tighten (yield curve flattens between 2 year and 10 year treasuries), investors move away from risky assets like BTC. When the yield curve moves towards inversion the market's appetite for BTC decreases significantly. Market participants may recall the many times in the past when yield curve inversions have correlated with recessions around 18 to 22 months after the inversion.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by clarenceleezt