US Equity Market could bottom out soonTLT
From a post view to analyze the market these days, "everybody" knows from the media that the reason is "fear of hyperinflation"
But how much inflation is high enough and when does this correction ends?
jump into my conclusion : the correction is ending soon.
Why?
there are 5 reasons to look for :
1 correction was triggered by diving T-note, looking at TLT, since the broke out from a 2B at early Feb, it accelerated, but approaching pre-pandenmic level.
2 raw material price on the massive run since last year, Copper and Crude oil had their times, but is approaching previous resistance
3 looking at nasdaq, 2Hr and 4Hr had made new lows but with MACD divergence
4 catalyst could be the freezing weather that send crude to the sky and the priced in stim bill, with dead line approaching, there still a big uncertainty in this, so could triggers some risk aversion
5 Nasdaq is approaching 12/18 quad witching support
T-BOND
Bond Meltup IncomingInterest rates are going to continue to move up to help drain the excess liquidity in the system. TGA will spend the last of its money in the form of a stimulus package, then we will see a great reversal on the dollar and interest rates, as cashflow continues to dry up, banks too scared to loan to each other (and therefore not make consumer and commercial loans), and money continues to move from consumerism to savings accounts. Put simply, illiquidity in the system, and raising interest rates will lead to a smackdown to near-zero again, maybe even negative, to prevent a major shock to the system.
Looking to buy more TLT dips this year. I think the meltup will begin with bank insolvency.
ZB T-Bond Futures looking for a pullbackThe VWAP has been broken with a strong candle, so an ascending behavior is to be expected, the market could look for the precedent tops of the trading range.
But it has in front of it the historical trend line which works well (look at the ellipses), so maybe the support will be the resistance.
wait for Chicago to open the market + volumes + confirmation of RSI.
Ascending Triangle in 10 year T-Note The Market is compressing after having formed an ascending triangle.
So my expectation is that it could continue going up if it breaks the upper horizontal line of the Triangle.
Keep in mind that this market is slow (works in 30min), but it's a huge market looking at the amounts of money inside it.
Big Long opportunity for ZBVery large value area + demand zone play as ZB is approaching new lows. Both of those drawn on the chart. Looking for longs at 174'02 but my favorite place to go long would be 173'02. Once it bounces, expect a pullback from the down move at least to previous swing lows and VAL of yesterday at 175'08. For stops go for 8 ticks (based on lower timeframe structure at the top of area not shown on this chart, if they get broken then we cut the trade expecting a swing lower down the macro value area)