Retest of support after major breakout of the TLT5 exactly at historic bond moment, slope of the 20 Week SMA crossing over simultaneously. BBOT
Here's your edge: the TLT blasts off when Government borrowing blasts off, a simple case of supply and demand. The Federal Government borrowed 2.2 Trillion USD in the last 12 months, data that has been added to Bloomberg Terminals but not here on Tradingview or on FRED. I bring you a piece of the cake, friends. SOURCE: x.com
US10Y/US02Y vs TLT & US10Y Bonds tend to bottom at the same level of the ratio of 10 year yields to 2 year yields. Should we be using the ratio of long and short term yields instead of the difference to trade the Bond Market?
The current value of the ratio of TLT to its leveraged product is equal to the monthly closes of the last two blast off points, resulting in 16% and 20% rallies within 2-5 months.
Daily RSI bullish divergence looks similar to the last two rallies
After just one day of retracing on Friday, the USD bull regained momentum on Monday thanks to Fed members continuing to push back on aggressive easing. Markets are also pricing in a Trump win with some polls suggesting he is ahead in three key states and some bookies even touting for him to win. In the current climate, USD/JPY could be at 152 before we know it. MS
TLT at every support including the daily RSI. BBOT. Bond Blast Off Time.
TLT/SPX Monthly RSI (8 Period Close) It makes sense to analyze the most common institutional portfolio allocation (Equities and Bonds) rather than Equities or Bonds separately. Most investors focus on Fed Funds, unemployment, the business cycle, rates, to analyze the bond market. But those metrics are poorly correlated to returns at best. When you focus on...
Very long term ROI of the US Dollar at long term support
Slope of the ratio between Bonds and US Rates looks like 2008 and 2019, right before blast off time.
The quarterly RSI of the ratio of Bond Yields to Equities has only reached the current level twice in the last 100 years, once during the Great Depression and once during the Nixon Shock years.
TLT seems to bottom at a consistent level of the ratio of bonds to energy represented by TLT/XLE. TLT is currently at the level associated with macro bottoms and the start of major bond market rallies.
DISCLOSURE: As of 10/15/24 I have no open position in NYSE: KHYB KHYB is an asia focused high yield corporate bond fund. The current yield is 15.3% per annum. Why asia high yield? 1. Higher risk premium for high yield corporate bonds The asia corporate bond sector has higher yield given similar rated bonds in western markets. In particular the spread for...
Someone yesterday dumped a lot of money into an options portfolio, that's designed to lower the price of December US10-year Bond futures. That automatically means more US 10Y yield, and since there's a strong correlation with the Dollar, it also means the Dollar is going up. The most curious thing is watching how the S&P 500 makes ATH during rising Dollar. Such...
TLT at its trend line support, peak volumes, macd looks ready to curl up, last 3 times rsi was this low we saw a considerable bounce, plus a good cpi report on Thursday should provide the catalyst needed to cause a bounce in the bond markets.
BND is having a clear trend reversal over the last months. After breaking out above 73.90 today was a successful backtest of that level. Let's see how tomorrow goes.
After #InterestRates were cut people were expecting a furious wave of buying, this has not come into fruition. Recent events: 2Yr Yield rallied substantially. 10Yr #Yield bottomed when we called it, has not run as much as it's shorter term counterpart. We're close to inversion again! Colored areas = POTENTIAL Inverse Head & Shoulder = BOTTOM. Worth noting, ...
A month ago (August 21, see chart below) we argued why the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) would go lower with the Fed having no choice but the cut the Interest Rates: Well the Fed did it and cut the rates not just by -0.25% but -0.50%, initiating the new cut Cycle. Now let's look at the US10Y's price action on a smaller time-frame, namely the...