TLT is currently at the Warning-Line of the white Fork. We can see how price reacts to the Center-Line. A classical retest that played out textbook like. Then the same at the BASE Line of the Action/Reaction Set. If TLT cracks the WL, then the next stop would be the Reaction line. All this is in line with the destroyed Bond Market. And that's the reason why I...
Sentiment in markets continues to sour, with the market heading towards the safety of gold, the CHF and equity index volatility. We see the VIX index above 20%, showing a pickup in market players hedging equity drawdown, and paying up for downside puts in the S&P500. The VIX index at 21.4% equates to implied daily moves in the US500 of 1.34%, and 3% over the...
What Major Event will occur to force thirst for US and G20 Treasury Bonds? It's happening soon. I wish I had a crystal ball to say what will cause it, but it'll happen. We're almost there IMO 5.19-5.25% topline target - then I hope in whatever this Market or world event will force yields to go back down to 3.19-3.25% Before eventually continuing back up in the...
The calculation of the US10Y - US02Y has commonly been used to measure the yield curve inversion. Historically, when the curve inverts and then inverts back, it has led to a significant recessionary period globally. And I know this information might be hard to understand for attention-deficient people like zoomers, so I included some helpful meme labels for them...
AMEX:TBT Double Top, A "double top" is a popular term used in technical analysis to describe a chart pattern that suggests a potential bearish reversal of an uptrend. Here's a breakdown of the double top pattern: 1. **Formation**: The double top pattern forms after a strong upward move or trend. It consists of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a...
The 10year Bond Yields / US10Y is trading inside a Channel Up since May 1st. The last two weeks the price is pulling back after a Higher High rejection and Double Top on Resistance A (4.888), aiming at the bottom of the Channel Up. That is a buy opportunity to target 4.888 again. If on the other hand the 1day MA50 breaks (is untouched since July 20th), sell and...
Caption says enough, 4.8% incoming within a month or two. Powell my guy, you are stuck.
The US #Dollar has pulled back a bit: At MAJOR SUPPORT At Green Moving Avg = Support RSI is at 50 (neutral bullish unless crosses lower) Weekly TVC:DXY is 50-50 The RSI is curling over but the MACD is now above 0 = down trend over Hmmm, interesting scenario Not sure what to make of it Monthly #currency ------------------------------- The 2Yr #Yield broke...
Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history.. Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users. Kindly, Phil
The Bond Yield Curve, which can be calculated by substracting the US 2 Year bond yield from the US 10 Year bond yield, has been inversed for quite some time. An inversion of the bond yield basically means that bond traders require higher returns on short-term bonds than on long-term bonds, which translates to short-term bonds being more risky than long-term ones....
The Fed Hawkish Stance During Wednesday's address, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced his stance on tackling inflation with a more cautious approach. He emphasized that the central bank is not yet finished with its efforts to curb inflation and hinted at the possibility of implementing multiple interest rate increases during future monetary policy...
Historically, the YELLOW support area NEVER holds when TVC:DXY is on its way back down. HOWEVER, the US #Dollar is showing strength. (this is vs a basket of currencies that are also weak.) 1st time it bounced back this hard. This looks like it wants to keep going, longer term. We'll see. This is NOT good for #stocks (longer term). TVC:TNX has been trading closely.
Good Morning! Historically, Since 1967, #interestrates have been MUCH higher, around 2008 they began to go lower. Most individuals never mention this. So what's the BIG DEAL?! The US was growing FASTER & the DEBT is now ASTRONOMICAL! Costs a TON in payments alone! SOMETHING has to give, SOON. Daily we could be setting up for some relief. TVC:TNX
Gold has found few friends of late as both US nominal and real Treasury yields rocket higher, and the USD has been on a one-way bull trend. If funds want to play defence in the portfolio, they increase their USD exposures, given the strong inverse correlation vs. the S&P500 and NAS100. Funds can also get a 5.58% yield holding risk-free US 6-month T-Bills and when...
Keeping an eye on TLT here - some decent volume coming in with exhaustive demark 13 signal. Let's see if it manages to put some sort of temporary bottom in here
This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside. Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining...
Hey everyone 👋 Guess what? This post was created by two TradingView users! @SquishTrade and I collaborated on this post. We wanted to share our thoughts about the MOVE/VIX ratio, which has been exploding recently, and which may be presenting a warning about the future movement of the S&P 500 ( SPX ). Before we begin, here's a bit more about the MOVE index:...
The TNote (US 10 year yield) has entered its target area for this up movement from the bottom. Resistance area is between 4.65% to 5%. We are expecting a pullback below 4% for the next months. Then the uptrend should resume towards 7%, possibly higher. A break above 5% would invalidate this view.