MACRO MONDAY 12 A Positive MOVE Index - TVC:MOVE The U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index – the “MOVE” is similar to the VIX volatility index that lets us know when volatility/uncertainty is high or low in the stock market by monitoring options contracts. Instead the MOVE measures how much investors expect bonds prices to fluctuate in the future....
The Us 10 Year yield is one of the most important yields to follow. It greatly impacts long term investment decisions in a vast array of markets; stocks, bonds, real estate. A clear technical breakout is being observed & this could mean inflation is becoming entrenched. Yields have a tendency to rally in parabolic fashion. if this breakout holds we can...
The yield market is going absolutely bonkers tonight in the futures. What is the bond market telling us? likely inflation is entrenched. If the 2 year yield closes at or above the Fed Fund Rate before we hear from Powell expect the fed to do a surprise rate hike or remain extremely hawkish. This will no be good for stocks if this is the case.
- TVC:US10Y is showing significant strength on all major timeframes. - The EMA's on the monthly timeframe broke bullish after 12,000 days (Last seen 1962). - If the US10YR breaks the 50% price retracement, we could see between 7.25% - 15%. (Last seen 1981) The markets are in a scary place right now. This bear market may be extended due to many factors were...
We have DXY pegged for Bullish continuation. I believe DXY is carrying a HTF Momentum to the upside. It has made an incredible recovery since its Ranges Low at $99.578 And it does not seem to be losing steam. I see DXY making some sort of retracement with a possible bounce around $104.561, to continue its path with a series of UP closing candles all the way up...
India govt bond yields has formed a continuation head and shoulder pattern Are the yield going to sub-7%
It's important to keep and eye on the 10 & 2Yr yields. The inverted #yield curve has huge prediction probability. BUT The strongest aspect of this is when it normalizes. We're not far from that as the10yr has been pumping and the shorter time frames have been pretty stagnant. Now, there's 2 ways this happens. Soft landing, economy slowly recovers OR Lower...
The 10Yr - TVC:TNX and the 2Yr #yield have held pretty steady the last few days. Won't be shocked if it doesn't do much until the DJ:DJI & TVC:NDQ , "coincidentally", break out of the patterns we've spoken about. TVC:DXY losing a lil bit of steam. Is it topping again? The only odd man out is the $VIX. It's closer to the lower end of range. IMO this is...
US10Y remains in an established uptrend on the daily chart, and Friday's bullish engulfing candle suggests a swing low has formed and more gains are to follow. But having looked back at price action since the April low, we note that prices are yet to break the low of a bullish engulfing candle if it has formed after a pullback or period of consolidation....
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is having a 2-week rejection since the August 22 High that was priced marginally above the 4.336 Resistance. However both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as well as the Higher Lows trend-line that moves just below it, remain intact, maintaining the long-term uptrend. Today is the ideal spot for a new buy entry, targeting...
I. Bearish Momentum: The ZN bonds market has recently displayed signs of bearish momentum, with several key indicators pointing towards a potential downturn. One of the most notable factors contributing to this sentiment is the presence of strong seller volume, indicating that there is significant downward pressure on bond prices. II. Seller Dominance: Seller...
How can you tell whether a price is in an uptrend? -- In this video we tackle this question -- To learn more watch it now --- Disclaimer: Do not buy or sell anything as this not financial advice please do your own reasearch before you trade -- Cheers, Lubosi Bonds
The Inverse ETF for the 20-Year US Government Bond is currently breaking out of a Descending Broadening Wedge and is looking to go much higher perhaps between the 61.8% and 78.6% retraces which would be about a 500-1,400% percentage gain which also means that longer end bond yields are going much higher. I previously said I would repost this chart after the split...
Update from original TLT vs. US20Y idea: - Switched to New Pane comparison for optimized viewing/zooming in on price movements. - Added TLT Candles for better price action analysis. - Added TLT trend lines for greater emphasis on inverse correlation + indication of trend break-outs. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :) AMEX:HYG NASDAQ:TLT TVC:US02Y ...
(Using 3-Day candles for visibility only. Consult weekly/daily yourself) I have an open call on Gold in that I believe a new high will be set, but it won't actually be bullish, because metals are going to dump pretty hard in the future and try to make retail sell their bullion. Gold - When A New ATH Prints, Will You Get Trapped? I hadn't paid a lot of...
Gold has been shunned by investors, but many are now questioning if the yellow metal is nearing an inflection point, for a potential turn, or should we position for further downside. With US growth likely at a peak and as good as it gets, gold longs partly flushed out, positioning paired back and sentiment as bearish as we’ve seen for years, could we be seeing a...
Going to bring this up AGAIN. Short term #yields have been stagnant for some time now. Most are trading within a VERY TIGHT RANGE. 3Month - 1Year yield has been relatively flat. The 2Yr had nice bump but is struggling to go over 5%. HOWEVER, we pointed this out some time ago, the 10YR has BEEN PUMPING! TVC:TNX
The big market themes last week were trading increased China risk and a resilient US economy with higher US ‘real’ yields (TradingView - TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE ) – the result was broad USD strength and global equity weakness. GBP longs also saw tailwinds from the UK data flow, with GBPNOK the best performing major currency pair on the week – Services PMI could...