Earlier in 2022 I got some Bullish Exposure to Deflation by positioning Bearishly against TIPs (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) as can be seen here: Fast-forward to today and we can now see the CPI declining and the TIPs declining even faster, This ETF Tracks the price of these TIPs and we can see that it is breaking through support even though the CPI...
US 10YR ‘real’ rates are essentially US 10yr Treasuries adjusted for 10yr inflation expectations – TradingView users can set this up using the equation: TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE. We can see this as the true cost of capital and in effect, the higher yields rise the more this supports the USD and negatively impacts US equity valuations. The rate of change (ROC) is...
NASDAQ FUTURES rejected July open price... Should have a fake-out under 15,000 before final pop to 15,200. Heavy resistance at 15,200, then final drop into 14,000 range.
Bonds yields have been moving up at a fast pace recently - the 2 year bond yield moved between may and now nearly a full percentage point. Currently at the levels seen around 2008 right before the markets crashed. With real rates on the 3 Month bill actually reaching the exact rate before 08 crisis. One thing I noticed is that the longer end of the curve, i.e...
Edited the graph from Apollo a bit. Red arrow is when most treasury #yields were hitting new highs. Blue arrow is current time. Chart is 2Yr #Bonds. TVC:TNX was putting in a lower low at the Red arrow BUT it is higher then before at the moment, Blue arrow. Graph shows how #bankruptcy filings began increasing late last year, slowed during #interestrates...
The technical weekly uptrend that yields have formed is rather astonishing. The sheer power of this move suggests likely more upside yields. Some basic measured moves suggest a potential whopping 5.7% on the 20 year. Imagine TLT long bond traders! Nothing is probable but it makes you wonder if inflation is becoming more entrenched since the bond market is very...
Technical Analysis: HYXU (iShares International High Yield Bond ETF) has been slowly grinding upward since it's October '22 lows. After almost 17 months beneath the Bull Market Support Band (20w SMA, 21w EMA), it crossed over the the upside in November of last year and has shown significant gains in the last 10 months. The assets last big push came at the...
The TLT has broken down an Ascending Broadening Wedge and given us one Bearish Confirmation back test; now we are looking for a second lower high within the range of the breakdown to truly get convicted on the move. However, for the time being, I do think this chart should be watched, as I have a suspicion that a lot of the shorter- and midterm bond yields are...
One of the main reasons why USdollar – DXY may stay weak is DXY/ZN (DXY against 10Y US Notes) ratio chart. Now that 10Y US Notes is looking for a bigger recovery, DXY could easily see more weakness, as DXY/ZN ratio chart is still looking lower, but ideally once current bearish running triangle in (B) fully unfolds, which can be in final stages. With bullish...
Money that has been parked at the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility due to the attractively high interest rates the Fed has set for money parked there has been on a steady decline since late 2022, and recently, this year we confirmed a breakdown of a Bearish Dragon, which led to a BAMM move down to complete a Harmonic M-shape. This then represented an influx of...
- TVC:DXY seems to be wanting a break-out from Resistance Trendline coming from 114 Highs, despite failing to do so. A Resistance Trendline that has pushed the price lower each time price has approached it. Wether that break-out and resumption is bound to happen or not in the short term, it is yet to be seen. Currently, TVC:DXY is in the midst of a Middle...
In previous failed breakouts (marked by dark-shaded circles) KDJ and Stochastic RSI both peaked and indicated trend reversals to the downside. In the current breakout attempt, both indicators are close to their lowest possible points.
The 3 & 6Month #yield look similar. The 3M looks just a tad better. The 1 & 2Y ear look very similar RECENTLY. However, the 1Yr is higher than the #BankingCrisis highs. The 10Y TVC:TNX gave a lot back but it's @ support here. Could have some sort of bounce here. But the most interesting chart is of the TVC:DXY US #Dollar. It looks like it wants to bounce...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that has been supporting the price action since May 16. The long-term trend since the October 21 2022 market top has been bearish, guided downwards by a Lower Lows trend-line but since February it has transitioned into a Rectangle. The recent July 07 High was a direct hit at...
The US10Y turned neutral on the 1D timeframe today (RSI = 51.795, MACD = 0.074, ADX = 33.857) after it got rejected on R1 two days ago. It is likely to see a sharp fall as on the March 2nd rejection, and in that case S1 and S2 won't pose any bullish pressure to the downtrend, nor should the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200, which in the past 12 months haven't had any such...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 07/11 Markets are waiting to see and digest the inflation numbers and then the kick-off of earnings season. If early earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top; but, if the earnings appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then...
With the US nonfarm payrolls behind us, we look to the US CPI report as the next big risk for markets. Ahead of this, we’ve seen USD sellers start to dominate with EURUSD eyeing a re-test of the 22 June high of 1.1012 and USDJPY 300 pips off its recent high. We also see GBPUSD looking poised to test the 1.2850 highs, so one for the breakout traders, especially...
XLRE is trying to breakout of a small basing formation. With rates surging recently one has to question a potential failure of this breakout, however if it does breakout there may be some significant momentum to the upside. Could this breakout coincide with a sudden drop in rates?