The US unemployment rate can double from here and still be within the long-term range and still below the extremes that have occurred during more recent recessions. Also worth point out that the only time we have been below this level of unemployment (higher employment) was during the Korean war in the early 1950s. Sure, we could see the rate of employment...
in 2008, high yield b rated bonds went as high 22% in the peak of panic. This also coincided with the peak of panic for stocks. Quality high growth potential stocks sold for fantastic prices and valuations. And it makes sense to not make sense this way. Bonds are debt, and must get paid first as part of normal business operation. Equity gets the excess profits...
I see a big opportunity on treasuries with the rates that the treasauries are trading at. Why? Inflation has been going down consistently from 9.1% to 4% and the PPI (which is the Producer Price Index) from 11.1% to 1.1%. These indicators usually draw near the core CPI which has been sticky above 5% and has been the aim for the FED. Rents and some services have...
Hello everyone! Today we will talk about five different important concepts. Many things are happening in markets, so I will create similar reports to help people understand why things are how they are. This will be my first report, so it might be a bit harder to go through, especially because on Tradingview, I can't easily share economic data or random...
There are a variety of risks to consider when investing in AT1 Contingent Convertible bonds (affectionately known as ‘CoCos’). These financial instruments, issued by financial institutions, may appear peculiar on first inspection but, once you get to know these quirky financial instruments better, you will better appreciate their unique risk/return profile. CoCos...
The dollar index's quarterly chart is the most important as we heading into the second half of 2022. Contrary to the popular belief, the quarterly chart suggests the DXY may bounce strongly in the coming six months, putting downward pressure on zero-yielding assets like gold. Also watch out for a potential breakout in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the...
#Yield is moving well today. 1Yr is bouncing back better than 2 and 10Yr. $TNX is not bouncing as much but has not sold off as much as the others. The 10Yr is trading between 3.80 - 4.08. Did we see the top in short term #yields a few days ago? 10Yr on the other hand did not break the most recent high. Interesting to say the least. The last picture shows the...
Yellow arrows show the #bank crisis. Short term #yields are higher or at the same level. They are showing signs of wanting to push higher again. The 2Yr is lower & looks as if it's curling a bit higher. The TVC:TNX or 10Yr is consistently lower & looks to be weakening. Wall St may finally be listening to #Fed & more hikes coming.
To obtain this information, we need to look at four things: -Fed Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets and the overall economy. -US5Y (US 5-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 5-year Treasury bonds are an important measure to assess market expectations for short-term interest rates and investor...
It looks like we are turning over. Coupled with gigantic short positioning of speculators on bonds (highest in history bsed on the COT Data), the chart indicates that yields will fall again. Why would they fall? Because of a flight to saftey and/or a recession. I am keeping it very simple, I just buy Bonds via ETF. I am long TLT, IEF and SHY. With that trade,...
🚨🚨🚨#yields🚨🚨🚨 3M + 6M have been weak lately, we called them topping some time ago. Will they turn soon? 1Y trading at recent highs and seems like it is trying to go higher. 2Yr looks like it wants to the recent test highs. 10Yr TVC:TNX peaked LONG ago! Breaks white line, downtrend, likely trades higher. Inverted yield curve thing of past? #bonds #tech ...
Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈📉 Did you miss the 2023 June 13/14 FOMC meeting? No worries, CryptoChecks' got you covered. Here's a summary of what happened and how the outcome of this meeting may affect the respective markets. First, let's clearly understand the FOMC meeting and it's importance to investors. The Federal Reserve, also known...
US10Y - 10 YEAR BOND WEEKLY TENDENCY ANALYSIS THE 10 Year Bond Started Buying from Weekly Demand (green) Then reached Monthly Supply that generated a new/fresh weekly Supply to start reversing the price Destiny: Weekly demand (green) Stages/Weekly tendency - Stan Weistein - STAGE I: Price consolidate Between SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE II: ...
We made a call that bond #yields were topping in early June 6M has cratered since then 1Yr sold off, bounced, pulling back again 2Yr & 10Yr TVC:TNX we stated likely topped long ago HOWEVER, we recently stated that they looked stronger than the SHORT term #bonds INTERESTING INDEED #Yieldcurve coming to an end?
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 06/12 The precarious rally of the last month has been baffling many with its lack of the breadth - the rally concentrated in just a handful of big-tech names. In the last trading plan - published on Thursday, 06/08 - we wrote: "If the rally does not dissipate this week, then it could be indicative of yet another leg up...
- The Dollar Index TVC:DXY has a very interesting short to mid term time frame ahead regarding its Price Action and Decision Making Time ticking . Currently TVC:DXY is bouncing around a Big Middline S/R area of 100-106 Range. Both 'ANIMALS' have their fair share of Case, while for now, Bulls are more dominant on medium term while Bears have taken total...
The US10Y continues to trade inside the long term Channel Down since the October 21st High and has now formed the same peak formation as then. With the 1D time frame neutral (RSI = 45.126, MACD = 58.593, MACD = -0.280), the conditions have emerged for a new long term sell. If the previous -20% decline is repeated, then target the bottom of the Channel Down on a TP...
#nifty #USDINR A double bottom @ channel Support line forming at Channel support line. Will it break out and go towards channel top?