We post a lot of ANALYSIS with ideas & what we're seeing BUT Keep an eye out for the ACTUAL CALLS We called rally in TVC:DXY & #yields, we got that over last month + Recently we stated that #bonds likely found a bottom = yields topping & Stated that TVC:DXY was looking weaker #Dollar cratering & Yields falling This COULD save, at least for now, another wave...
Name: TLT - iShares 20-year bond ETF Time Frame: 15mins, daily chart Direction: long Comment: I have a promising investment opportunity to share with you. After careful analysis, I believe interest rates have reached their peak, indicating a favorable outlook for bonds. In particular, the iShares 20-year bond ETF (TLT) is exhibiting all the right signs for...
In this video we look at the impending $800b T-bill issuance from the US Treasury to rebuild its cash levels at the TGA – will this lead to higher volatility in financial markets as reserves are taken out of the system? Will concerns on bank credit kick back up, or will this prove to be a non-event? We look at the indicators you need can use in TradingView to...
US #Dollar took hit recently, recuperating We called this pump while most were negative Certainly broke the small recent uptrend it was in NOW WHAT?! RSI shows it's most likely going to some sideways action BUT BUT BUT LOOK WEEKLY chart shows it may be in Head & Shoulder Pattern - bearish If #yield continues to rise so will TVC:DXY BUT, how high can they go...
Money that is being parked at the Feds Reverse Repo Facility due to attractively high interest rates the fed has set for money parked at the facility has been on a steady decline since late 2022 and we have now confirmed a lower high and are looking to break down below a Bearish Dragon trend line that could be the initial trigger that gets it started to going down...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the top of the (blue) Channel Down pattern, which was our bullish target on our last trade ten days ago (see chart below): Despite not having hit it yet, we decide to close this long trade as we see more value in starting a sell-near-highs approach now. There is also a diverging Channel Down (dotted...
Long position on OANDA:USDJPY Interest rates on US dollars are rising globally, at a very rapid rate. Capital has been flowing towards the United States for the last couple years, as a global flight to security occurs as fear rises in markets during times of turmoil. Because the US Dollar is the reserve currency of the globe, debts backed by US...
Short term Elliott Wave view in Ten Year Notes (ZN) suggests that cycle from 3.24.2023 high is in progress as an expanded flat. Down from 3.24.2023 high, wave ((A)) ended at 113’3 and wave ((B)) ended at 117 as the 45 minutes chart below shows. The Notes then extends lower in wave ((C)). Internal subdivision of wave ((C)) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott...
This probably is not a good sign for the SP:SPX , as these assets are highly correlated (0.88) and normally AMEX:CPER leads the business cycle. Also, the TVC:VIX is back above 20 and NASDAQ:TLT hasn't resume its downtrend. Even the dollar AMEX:UUP is showing strength again. I'm 87% in cash and also have tighten all my stops. Let's wait and see if the...
The 3 Month Bill is currently breaking down and backtesting a Rising Wedge after Bearishly Diverging at some extreme highs while the DXY has also broken below a long term trend line and is backtesting the S/R Zone and Moving Averages as Resistance. I have expectations that both of them will crash majorly in the coming weeks to months.
As mentioned in previous heads up over the last weeks, it had finally happened (as expected) that the SG10Y GB yield rates break out of trend line resistance. And from previous occurrences, this is a very reliable inverse leading indicator of the SPY (and other related equity indexes); meaning that the SPY should be tanking downwards within the next week or...
Check out the AI patterns and my trend lines and see what you think... we've definitely broken the long-term down trend which everyone said would collapse.. pretty much everything, lol.
The US Treasury yields were under influence of Fed Chair Powell's speech in Washington as well as ongoing negotiations regarding the debt-ceiling. Although Powell did not mention anything new in his speech over a potential monetary move in the future period, still, Lorie Logan, a Dallas Fed President, made a comment as of the end of the previous week, that...
Authors: SanTi Li, & NaXi Da U.S. Treasury yield, long considered as a risk-free rate (R0) for value computations and future valuations as per materials like the CFA curriculum, bears nearly zero risk in the financial landscape. However, what happens if this supposedly risk-free asset becomes risky? A U.S. Treasury default would have vast ramifications on the...
Various sectors and what looks to be setting up to my eye. Somewhat related to my "interesting stock plays" below... good luck!
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) hit the downside target on our previous signal (see idea below) and is currently rising again: Being above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we see the potential of a diverging Channel Down to emerge and establish itself (dotted lines). The completion of a 1D Death Cross, the...
Something bad is happening in the state market. bonds of England - these papers have been actively sold over the past month. During this period, the yield on them increased by as much as 1%. Because of this, we see how the market is already beginning to arrive in some kind of stress: the dollar index is growing, other bonds of developed countries are also...
🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 6 Month #yield is NOW HIGHER than when #silvergate #bank collapsed! #interestrates can stay above 5% for extended periods of time, see charts, BUT the end result has NEVER been good for #stocks 1Yr struggles @ 5% but has been higher than 6% HOWEVER 10Yr TVC:TNX is DIFFERENT! This has been on a long downtrend until 2022! #bonds