What if the 2.2% to 2.9% that was once resistance becomes a new floor? Recent changes in the long-term charts hint at more #yield rises.
I think the current buoyancy on long duration eu core gov bonds is deceptive. rates in europe are way to low due to current macro environment, inflation still high, prices of gas and oil sets for higher levels in coming months ECB still in hawkish mode. rsi is also on the rise above its mean. probably this development will require 2 steps for the yield to...
Reference chart for my research purposes. This is a study of determining the approximate start of a recession based on short-term bond rates.
Reference chart for my research purposes. Studying the success of short-term bond rates to front run federal fund rate decisions (in white). Without much inspection, we can say they are fairly reliable.
Reference chart for my research purposes. US Bond Yields Tracked Over Time
Silver's price action has been curious, as it started to drop suddenly right at the beginning of February. Lost 5% in a day, in fact. Gold took a little bit longer to move, and notably dumped on a much smaller magnitude. I have an open call from mid-January that gold is likely to correct, and it appears to be coming to fruition: Gold GC1 - Discard Greed,...
In this update we review the recent price action in #TLT and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
The 20-year bonds ETF is near a key breakout level that should confirm a new uptrend in bonds. This should be followed by a breakout above 4,100 in the SP:SPX . Just look a the bullish divergence between the MACD and the price of NASDAQ:TLT , its a very good signal. Let's wait for the breakout and follow through.
The US02Y has been trading on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past 4 weeks, closing above it on all occasions. This is a key time for (primarily) the stock market as the last time the US02Y broke and closed below its 1W MA50 (week of December 31 2018), a massive rally on stocks (which on this chart are portrayed by the S&P500 and the black trend-line) was...
Overview of many markets - tech may be the canary for the overall stock market, oil could continue to 84-87 area, Gold is at heavy resistance and Dollar is a strong support, Bonds still look strong and maybe a safe haven play, BTC may tag 30k before all is said and done. Good luck!
Here we can see Japan is slurping up bonds to hold down oil prices. (vs. USD: Red) (vs. SAR Green) Simultaneously the us05y (orange) is compressing below the us30y (yellow), uninverting the yield curve and firing off our famous recession signals. But people wonder why the MOVE index is so wildly off the charts..
There's obviously lots of discussion about interest rates and where they are headed. Today, I'm going to look at long-term interest rates based on the well-known ETF: $TLT . Long-term interest rates are useful as a guide for most people who get a home-loan or longer-dated loans and is usually less prone to manipulation (by Central Banks) than short-term...
T-note massive money printed bond purchasing programme through repos...keep inflation high and perpetual debt who cares. T-note straight forward to 124. just sell put ZN options contracts and get premiums easy-peasy. For pro advice to send private message.
The german bund is going to 142,50. Here is the trend pivot massive money printed and repo bonds programme from ECB. You just sell puts contracts options strike at 134.50 and get premiums. For pro advice reach me on private.
Seems like bonds are about to rip higher for many weeks here...I'm long with an ETF position using some leverage to hedge my equities positions here. Seems like a good position to put on, can be done with $IEF or $ZN_F futures . Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
crucial time for t-bond FED increases money supply, easing money to banks and prints it as well as rises interest rates...those are opposite things that we do not know how it turns out would the descending triangle be broken?
The US10Y is trading inside a Channel Down on the 1D timeframe with the 1D technicals neutral (RSI = 46.172, MACD = -0.046, ADX = 31.478). With the 1D RSI coming off an accumulation that we've seen on the December and January bottoms, we expect the price to rise and approach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci. Our TP = 3.750. ## If you like our free content follow...
TLT Volume spikes prior to peak, when the fed first started raising rates. Now a volume peak right when the fed has said they will consider a pause for the next meeting. This could mean that the market thinks that rates are going to come down, and that therefore the value of long term bond assets will go up, as well as the value of banking stocks which are...