The yield curve is now fully inverted after reaching EXTREME levels. With that, we can conclude the recession has officially contaminated the financial sector. Soon (likely before year end) we will see a significant selloff in equities. Suggest: sell stocks & buy US Treasury Bonds.
10-yr yields 100 bps below target & trending lower US Election 2 days before next FOMC Expect October surprise? FOMO into US10Y now & sell the election/emergency With this sentiment, looking for clown-world short setups in fx
Ahead of the Fed meeting Wednesday the market was pretty much 50/50 split on whether the fed funds rate would be cut by 25 or 50 basis points. After the 50bps announcement the counter intuitive move occurred, which was rates began rising, but this should have been a surprise. This was as straight forward "buy the rumor, sell the news" gets. Today however it...
If the S&P500 gets rejected at this level, it has the power to be an iconic selloff. Now before we get to “bear’d up ” understand the SPX is still holding above the key short term daily moving averages and holding higher lows. The long term trend is still up. Now to go back to being bearish. This FOMC interest cut was a big 0.50 BP which is not what most were...
IEF is about to go in the strongest phase E (wyckoff) and giving the investors the last chance to by in the next days, for the next weeks or months to come. S&P500 is still stronger but to see both strong is a starting signal for a worldwide bull market good trading :)
Gold is going parabolic and typically that doesnt mean a good thing. Now there are many reasons this could be rallying and likely a combination of the few. - Fed Rate Cut - Geo political tension - Weak Fiat currencies - Currency Crisis - Weakening economies In a time where gold enters these monthly extreme RSI moves it typically signals a good time to start...
US02y/US10y suggesting a change on the trend pretty soon. Last two times MACD was this close to visit the 0 line It took about 120 days to start the crash in 2007 and less than 30 days in 2020. It is just a matter of time folks. Pain is close
Copy the 2007-2010 TLT price pattern. Impose in to 2024. Once The Fed starts cutting rates they won't stop until they reach basically 0%.
TLT bullish trend into 100 resistance with major Fed decisions coming in the next weeks/months. Has a gap to fill on the way to highest pt Pts are 98.30, 98.70, and 100+ - Shifted narrative from inflation to labor market - Data suggests Fed is very behind the curve - Jackson Hole - FOMC
Inverse Head & Shoulders NASDAQ:TLT ETF Weekly Chart The NASDAQ:TLT ETF weekly chart, which tracks 20-year+ Treasuries, shows an inverse head & shoulders pattern still intact. 📊 U.S. Treasury funds have attracted billions in inflows over the past couple of weeks, fueled by rising expectations of rate cuts and growing investor confidence in long-term government...
The yield curve, which shows the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates on government bonds (US10Y-US02Y). In normal market conditions, this number should be positive because the interest that investors require on 10Y bonds is higher than the interest required on 2Y bonds. Interest is a value of risk perception. Higher risk of default means...
Almost 10 months ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top: Today's revisit to this pattern shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have already started to form a Bearish...
Traders continue to sell the US dollar in anticipation of a dovish speech from Jerome Powell on Friday. To the point where we wonder if this could be a case off "sell the rumour, buy the fact". Matt Simpson takes a quick look at the USD dollar index and bond yields.
The market continues to step out the final leg of this interim B-wave up that's interceding for now before the true decline of note as we head into 2025+. US Bonds, despite the analysis and weakness projected, remain a more viable unit than does Japan and Europe as we move forward.
" NASDAQ:TLT Weekly Chart: Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern was triggered last week. 📈 This could signal a potential reversal and further upside for long-term Treasuries. Are you watching this breakout? #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #BondMarket #Investing #ChartPatterns"
We talked about a bullish turn on German Bund back on June 20th, where we mentioned and highlighted more gains within wave C of an A-B-C rally, which can also recover the EURUSD pair. As you can see today on August 05, German Bund is extending strongly higher within a five-wave bullish cycle for wave C with space up to 140 area. At the same time EURUSD is also...
We have seen an amazing fall in interest rates. Bonds have looked to put in a local bottom. Why are bonds showing signs of accumulation? Is the bond market pricing in a recession? I believe the recent decline in yields is due to commodity weakness. Yields have soften because energy & base metals have become cheaper. This drives the disinflationary...
Hey Traders We have US 2-Year T-Note, all my weekly fundamentals are showing a nice drop from from supply zone bounced out and is looking strong to sell down, I will be waiting for a pullback to my sell limit marked off on chart. When I am lining up a set up I always use the daily TF to place a sell limit or buy limit from supply zone or demand zone. Please...