This chart shows the effective federal funds rate in comparison to the 30 year and 3 month yield over the past five years. There are 5 interesting times to look at: 1. Late 2018 long term yields began to peak right before the fed stopped their hiking cycle. Yield curve began to flatten. 2. They then stayed put for about 6 months with the 3MY hovering right...
Investments tend to fall in value FASTER than increase (even in bull markets) IMO always take profits STRATEGICALLY This works for ALL investments that have tried it on including, but not limited to Crypto, , Commodities, Bond Yields, and Currencies AVG 1-2 = 3 weeks 2-3 = WEEK! 3-4 = Almost month 4-5 = WEEK! 5-6 = 3 weeks 6-7 = WEEK! Example $DIA Use...
Price did not do an impulse from Oct 2022, so we are in a complex correction. Targetting a move to 3.4 for now.
To all the perma bulls out there, look at bonds, there won't be any pivot till higher interest rates at or above 6%. Bonds risk-off is the most important out there, as the bond market is much bigger than the stock/indexes market. Something will have to give, either bonds or the markets...
Why We Rallied It's been a strong few months for the S&P 500, which is up about 13% from the October lows. There were five reasons for the rally: 1) P/E ratios got attractive, especially for small-to-mid caps. 2) Inflation peaked, which historically has sometimes marked the bottom for stocks. 3) Global liquidity turned upward. Every major bond market was...
obviously its risky to try to put EW on something like the US10Y yield with so many issues in the world right now but i couldnt help notice how clean the count looks at the moment. NOT trading advice.
TVC:US10Y The recent market response to data on CPI , PPI, and the selloff in the bond market, coupled with hints from the Fed about potentially raising rates towards 5% to 5.25%, provide important insights into where the markets could be heading in the coming weeks. Looking at the weekly chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, we can see a massive rising wedge...
The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising since the end of January in the aftermath of a Bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Now, prices are approaching the December high at 3.905 after confirming a breakout above a falling trendline from October. Meanwhile, a bullish Golden Cross is set to form between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages, further...
Short rates flying (up to 1Yr #yield) Already broke previous highs Compare to 2 (slightly lower than previous highs) & 10 $TNX (chart tells story) #Market trading = #inflation higher vs #Fed expectation of 2% Markets not expecting recession or lower inflation NO soft landing - party on But that'll mean eventual HAWKISH FED Dilemma #stocks or #economy, only 1
This is one of the charts bulls must pay attention to!
US Government Bonds 10YR Yield. Time-frame = 1 month. In 2005-2007 (red circle) - a double top was built (determined automatically by my script) from which the downward movement began for further accumulation. 2009-2019 (green rectangle) - long-term accumulation (balance). 2019-2022 (blue circle) - responsive activity (long entry by key players). 2022-2023...
The US10Y is forming an interesting pattern that suggests a move higher is likely. I decided to compare the general trend movement to that of SPX. The green arrows represent my future base case. However, should the US10Y break to the upside of its current pattern now, the blue arrows represent that. The future picture is always fuzzy, but I’m estimating US10Y is...
We discuss all the major indices and fundamentals heading into the important Jobs number tomorrow. The market is in a vulnerable point especially if the economic data comes in better than expected. Massive earnings tomorrow could add to the volatility. 2 important market signals today from 2 leading stocks.
Familiar pattern for the US10Y as with the support of the 4H MA200 it is repeating the mid December +13.50% rise. In perfect symmetry a new +13.50% rise tops on the Resistance provided by the first Lower High of the down leg, same as the November 13th Lower High. The 1D technicals have just come out of neutrality (RSI = 57.935, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 33.193) and an...
The US10Y is breaking above the first Falling Resistance after making a Double Bottom on the 1day MA200. Wait for the right level to sell this rally near the second Falling Resistance. Target the bottom of the Falling Wedge. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
US10Y/1D Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. Reversed US 10 years bonds has been trading in a deep pull-back. The price has started showing some signs of strong bulls, which means that the market might need to price in for higher intrest rates. Aka. Risk is off. Tarde safe, Tarder Leo.
We will have a deflationary crisis before super inflationary crisis. During the upcoming rate cycle we will have inflation going up at the same time as rates. Welcome to a new world. At least in the US. I've been saying this for years, higher rates only compensate inflation it doesn't fight inflation.
On February 1st, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes were released, and the Fed announced a 25bps rate hike. As such, markets started to rally. An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish narrative across...