Fed claiming to continue rate increases. 2-year treasuries calling, "Bluff"! One of them is lying.
just another sign you will likey see further deals. Trust nobody, including me! Im gonna look like a big dummy afther this many posts if we just bomb higher in 2023 😉 Happy trading - stay agile
The US10Y hit today, in the aftermath of the 6.5% U.S. CPI, the Higher Lows (HL) Support line that has been in effect for 9 months (started on March 7th 2022). With 1D technicals bearish but not heavily (RSI = 42.655, MACD = -0.035, ADX = 36.284), the trend is undecided at the moment, at least on the short-term. Though we see a clear Channel Down since the...
US Bonds have been channeling in a perfect downward parallel channel since Mar 2022. It recently hit a key resistance level at $132 and started to pull back. I expect the pull back to continue till $123 and expect a short term technical bounce up to $128. Higher Fed interest rates will continue to have pressure on the Bonds and overall economy. I expect the...
What is the big trade for 2023? I think it is going to be BONDS. This is my thesis on going long NASDAQ:TLT to start 2023. I walk through the reason that when yields go up, bond values go down (as did TLT) and why I think that TLT is likely to go back up over the course of this 2023 and beyond.
A really strong indicator for future price action of say DXY for example can be the divergence between it and 5y, 10y and 30y bond yields. Forex markets are driven mainly by interest rates and so if we take a close look at the bond yields we can see them making lower highs whereas DXY is making higher highs. As said, DXY will also follow the bond yields and so we...
best bond yields are yet to come. Dollar remains bullish. Combined with a technical analysis this gives me a nice setup.
In this video I cover the divergence between the 2 and 10 year treasuries and the recent FOMC press conference language. Jerome Powell is promising one thing (continued rate increases), while the bond market seems to be claiming otherwise (Fed pause incoming). Who's right? Let's take a closer look.
Treasury yields have been a major driver of sentiment since early 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped above 1.75 percent at the beginning of the bear market last January. But now it may be showing signs of a top. The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the highs of October, November and December. Notice how TNX began the New Year...
just sharing a potential bull flag pattern formation on the daily timeframe for US10Y. current candle bounces on the 0.5 fib level, would affect negatively for stocks and BTC if this plays out.
DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a macro analysis for 2 year bond yield on the Daily Timeframe. POINTS: 1. Since the beginning of this upward trend on January 2022 we have seen that bonds and the overall market are said to share an inverse relationship but during pivotal moments that has not been the case as you can see that the stock market has...
As I mentioned in my 2022 EOY letter... with actual meaningful interest rates now a thing bonds can return yield. While bonds issued in the last decade (or two) are getting hammered in value as higher rate bonds are being issued presently. I think the market is pricing all of this in and if we do get a tapering of rate increases we will see bond values increase....
$TNX is closed atm but if the 2yr is an indication it may open higher We re-entered long yield after FED day in DEC. Sold puts on $TYO & bought common Didn't go heavy because Monthly chart is a tad tough. Weekly 2yr trading decently above avg's again So far so good. We were bullish on STOCKS but that was late Oct/Early Nov, then went bearish for a bit, & are...
UK 5 YEAR GOVT BONDS YIELD It is recommended to wait for confirmation by show of hand on the asset; the three successive bearish candles occurring at the region below the rising TL may be indicating something.... too soon to call? Suspicions are that the main leagues are not yet ready to fully liquidate, that they may have banked some profits and reloaded with...
For background information, see related ideas - Strength evaluation is now taking place, however because event listeners are connected possibly in preparation for Buys, you should be careful of unexpected movements. Observe your DD! Reminder: Use caution when trading now more than ever before because significant movements are anticipated.
Forget the "Santa rally," it's time to brace ourselves for a potentially tumultuous 2023 as concerns mount over bond market developments and their impact on Q1 earnings Santa is tired, Kids It is uncertain whether the annual "Santa rally" will occur in 2022 due to the bear market. There are concerns about the recent developments in the bond market and their...
That green line is a 22 year resistance and we broke it recently. What happens when a level is broken and bullishly retested?? Well, it usually reacts in that trend. And the trend for DXY is very bullish. More bullish than we have seen since the 1980’s. This is an opportunity of a lifetime. You can’t really trade DXY, but this means all stocks, cryptos, and other...
Two resistances have been hit, we will potentially go lower