Bonds hit resistance at 111'26, dipping back to support at 110'27. We anticipated this in our reports yesterday. It is likely we will continue the sideways correction from here, bound between these two levels. If ZN can break out, then 113'12 is the next target. We expect 110'05 to be a floor for now.
It looks like the 2YR yield is looking to do a reversal. If so that would sustain the rally in stocks. Have to see if it is confirmed on the daily. It looked like a reversal before and then blasted higher.
Long on TLT here.. I think we could see 99-102 fairly soon with a huge reversal in the coming days. 100 lvl broke through and sold hard, I believe this will be a fake breakdown and if anything could be bottoming or reversing soon.
Based on the TLT pattern shown here, bonds may have much further below to go. They've continued to steadily sell off as rates have continued climbing, and show no signs of a long-term bounce. Target 1 has been breached, leaving target 2 in the crosshairs: $86-87.
Mortgage rates are penciling-in to be around 10% on a first mortgage note by Jan/Feb - so everyone with a couple of brain cells to rub together knows what that will do to real estate prices. Some good things will come out of this - like the Gen Z's in the market will get a chance to become homeowners, but in trading terms, this is a very good opportunity. ...
You think the stock market correction is painful. The bond market is seeing its worse decline since the 1940's. It is down 50% since March 2020. My suggestion is that retirees don't look at their 401k. I sure hope it finds a bottom soon.
Months ago, when 10 year bond futures were still 175, this weekly head and shoulders pattern jumped out at me. It looked so big and so bad I almost didn't want to believe it could play out. Now, as we approach 135, this massive, fully triggered pattern may be the best indication of where bonds are headed: 125. Sure, they could bounce a few times as they have...
Who would have thought we might be seeing 20 year guaranteed 10% returns on US Treasuries soon.. but it could certainly happen. Short the things on the way up, and keep your cash available to buy every one of them in sight on the way down. Rates on a 3month Treasury are up an astounding 7,780% - Year to Date.
Western interest rates starting going back up in the end. Looks like the whole "new paradigm" is over. Money is not free anymore. To sum up: - Boomers got 110% of the wealth (other generations are in debt), they are aging and getting more conservative, covid got them even more scared and conservative (risk averse); - Generally investor outlook on the economy...
I am posting so you get the clear picture of what is ahead and just started . remember I stated HOPE well she is a girl in the lifeboat who just used the last of the fresh drinking water to wash her hair !! I stand by my work and DATA to back it up all 120 years of it !!!!
The bond market has broken a 35Y downtrend and we can see in this chart the correlation to the rate hikes, is this a sign of substantial rate hikes in the future?
This is your ultimate chart to predict the crash. Search no more. Everytime bonds broke trend and started spiking up - crash for stocks (And crypto) was imminent. We didn't even approach the trend yet - so it means this is just a correction. Cheers!
It is just because no Crypto has ever experienced a real big crash. And now we are approaching the Great Reset. No DCA will save you here.
This is proof we started declining too early and we can still expect a lot of wonders before the actual crash. Before we truly don't go above 0 on Treasure yields - we can still expect some push to the upside - and even significant ones.
TLT still going down despite today’s big bounce in equities. TLT stopped exactly on the monthly mma200 red line after breaking below 100 today Monday. TLT should hold mma200 this week or else bonds & equities have a lot more to fall. Not trading advice.
In this short video I focus on the UK and US 10 year bond markets in comparison to the DJI. All these markets are linked up in the background - at the speed of light. There are no predictions here - only probabilities and speculation. High volatility is expected at the opening of the markets tonight, 16th Oct 2022. Some are predicting a 'Black Monday' type...
Everyone is a good trader in a bull market, but in a bear market, these good traders are reduced to hopium-fueled twitter analysts watching core CPI and interest rates. The former and latter data points serve nothing more as useless, out-of-context generalities for the single-celled Wall Street Bet retail enjoyer. But recent activity across the pond has sparked...